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NJ: Christie 47 Corzine 44 (Rasmussen 10/5)


Rasmussen
10/5/09; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: IVR
(Rasmussen release)

New Jersey

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 57 / 42 (chart)
Gov. Corzine: 43 / 55 (chart)

2009 Governor
Christie 47%, Corzine 44%, Daggett 6% (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Chris Christie (R): 46 / 50
Jon Corzine (D): 45 / 52 (chart)
Chris Daggett (i): 44 / 27

 

Comments
tjampel:

If Ras has Christie + 3 that means it's maybe +1 or +2, based on their other results this year.

Taking the two NJ polls together the race is with MOE, albeit with Christie still slightly ahead, perhaps.

If I had to bet my life savings it would NOT be on Christie at this point; he's bleeding support and Corzine is finally inching up on his favorables. He won't get over 45%, perhaps but that may be good enough.

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Wong:

Another poll with Corzine over 42%. This puts the race in toss up category and the momentum is against Christie. The Democratic machinery in Jersey is famous for October surprises. I would put my money on Corzine.

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lat:

I am curious to see how Stillow will spin this? I have said it for months any of you who thought that a GOP candidate was going to win by large numbers in NJ is out of their minds. NJ has voted democratic in every presidential election since 1992 and no republican has won statewide office since 97 and Christie Whitman was a much better candidate than Chris Christie. NJ is a highly educated very affluent state where voters don't take well to people telling them what they can do in their bedrooms. Obama won NJ by 16 points and he will be in the state before election day to help Corzine I am sure of it. We will see how this plays out, but I think Corzine could win this by 5 or more points.

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lat:

I am curious to see how Stillow will spin this? I have said it for months any of you who thought that a GOP candidate was going to win by large numbers in NJ is out of their minds. NJ has voted democratic in every presidential election since 1992 and no republican has won statewide office since 97 and Christie Whitman was a much better candidate than Chris Christie. NJ is a highly educated very affluent state where voters don't take well to people telling them what they can do in their bedrooms. Obama won NJ by 16 points and he will be in the state before election day to help Corzine I am sure of it. We will see how this plays out, but I think Corzine could win this by 5 or more points.

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jmartin4s:

This is probably worse news for Christie than the poll this morning that showed Corzine leading. When heavily republican biased rasmussen shows Christie up by only 3 points and calls the race a tossup, it means that Corzine has the momentum and can absolutely win. According to intrade.com the stock for the democratic party to win the NJ governor in 2009 is now 50.

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tjampel:

Forget Intrade; how about the citizens of NJ who, in the FDU poll are confident, by a wide margine, of a Corzine win. that number has risen dramatically since the first debate, which was a Waterloo of sorts (involving a pincer movement by both Corzine and Daggett) for Christie.

Reality is seeping in and that's bad for Christie; he's a mediocre candidate with ethics issues. He'd be decimated by any Dem BUT Corzine by now.

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Bigmike:

I don't know a thing about NJ. But I am amazed that any candidate with job UNfavorable and DISapproval numbers as high as Corzine has a chance to win an election. To an outsider who really does not know the issues on NJ voters minds, it is tempting to write it off as machine politics.

Don't take that as a slam. I actually mean it as a compliment and I admit to being jealous. I wish conservatives were in a position to hand pick who the public is going to elect.

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Stillow:

Why is this bad news for Christie? He is leading. Rass has a very good track record on election polling. If he has Christie up then he is probably up. Remember a lot of you tell me all the time Rass uses his accurate election polling to validate his bias issue polling.

A lot of Dems are going to have a lot of egg all over there faces when Christie wins this race.

@lat

Why have you changed from the GOP is dead an no republican can win in NJ to no one expected a republican to win by a large number in NJ....if Christie does win it signals big problems for Dems in NJ. the fact its been so long since a GOP victory means there is a trend developing and people might be getting tired voting for Dems who just step on there necks.

You have a deep blue state with an incumbant Dem and he is trailing in all but one poll this entire year. And yet somehow this is bad news for the republicans????? I must be missing soemthing.

A few steps down the road the GOP is going to sweep all the state wide elections in VA. Again, not bad for a party that is dead.

Corzine losing to a GOP in NJ is like Alabama voting for a liberal as governor, it will be a major upset and a big slap to the Dems in a state where they have had total control for a long long time.

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saywhat90:

The last rasmussen poll had him up 7. The way the number are trending right now , it doesn't look good for christie. Even Joe Scarborough said NJ is notorious for giving repubs false hope. Christie may win but right now its not a clear victory for anyone.

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lat:

BigMike,

It has nothing to do with machine politics as much as people make fun of NJ and always say it is corrupt, disfunctional, and blah, blah , blah a lot of that is greatly exaggerated. Chicago is a dem machine, same for Massachusetts, but NJ not so much. What you have is a state with a sizeable minority population and highly educated across the board both those ingredients have spelled disaster for The GOP the last 6 or so election cycles, in addition as much as people complain about Corzine he is actually pretty clean as far as it goes (when your worth 400 million dollars going on the take is probably not as tempting) and is just unpopular due to the economy. If the GOP is going to run a pro-life, pro-gun candidate (Christie) in a state like NJ then they are automatically going to be at a disadvantage from day one.

Stillow,

I have been saying for months when Corzine was down by double digits that anyone who believes it is going to stay this way is smoking something. Bush had a better than 50 percent approval rating in NJ in 04 and I remember everyone saying he could take John Kerry there he ended up losing by 7 points (once again minority voters ruined the gop's day). I am not saying Christie cannot eek out a victory, but I would not bet on it that is for sure

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Cyril Washbrook:

I'd still put Christie as clear favourite at this stage. The reality is that Corzine's numbers really haven't budged all that far, and I'm not convinced that Corzine polling 43-44 instead of 42 really reflects this notion that he's charging home and will swamp Christie.

The polling is further complicated by the fact that support for Daggett seems to be extremely erratic, with some polls giving Daggett 17% and others like this one giving him 6%. The long-run trend line suggests that Daggett's been gaining at Christie's expense, while this poll shows that doesn't seem to be the case.

What does all that mean? Well, I'd avoid making the sort of quixotic conclusions that have been emerging from the Corzine supporters here.

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