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NJ: Christie 51, Corzine 38 (Rasmussen-6/3)


Rasmussen Reports
6/3/09; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: IVR

New Jersey

Favorable / Unfavorable
Gov. Corzine (D): 41 / 58 (chart)
Christie (D): 54 / 35

Job Approval
Gov. Corzine (D): 42 / 58 (chart)

2009 Governor
Christie 51, Gov. Corzine 38 (chart)

(source)

 

Comments
Stillow:

Big lead for Christie.....I'm tellin ya Dems, Corzine is going to lose, he is not a very good governor...

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BobinOakland:

Post Primary bounce, but the the 51% is troubling nonetheless. Corzine's got a lot of cash though, so we'll see how thise developes over the summer.

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Stillow:

True, Corzine does have a lot of cash he can throw into this race, but he will still lose. You are forgetting the golden rule of politics, when there is a financial disaster occuring during an election, the opposing party always wins. This is true in presidential races and races for governors. NJ is definately on the short list of states who are in severe financial trouble. A lot of states are hurting, but NJ is in the "severe" catagory....that will cost Corzine. The opposing party lways wins.

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BobinOakland:

Stillow,

I'm still fairly certain that Corzine will win, and the state, while in financial trouble, is not as severe as say, CA or SC. But if I see more polls with Christie at 50%+, I'll probably change my view.

Oh, and regarding your golden rule, didn't Granholm get re-elected despite MI's bad economy? We've got some interesting opposing forces here. Should be fun to watch.

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conspiracy:

Rasmussen had Menendez down all summer in 2006. Granted, Kean never hit 50. I suspect things will change when Corzine actually starts landing some punches on Christie. He basically only kicked off his campaign yesterday and has the funds to saturate Jersey with attack ads. It won't be pretty but there isn't another way.

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Stillow:

Your right about Mich, rule's always have exceptions, at least for a cycle or two, or three. In Mich. the GOP put forth a veyr weak candidate. So yes I thought you might point out MI...in NJ though Christie is a good candidate and Corzine has low approval numbers and the economy is in the tank there....so my money says the rule will once again prevail here and the governors mansion will swap parties. Being a prosecutor Christie already omes off as tough on corruption, etc...so he just has the tide going in hsi direction.
If the economy was not bad in NJ I ould totally agree that Corzine would win. In MI, if hte GOP actually nominates a good candidate, they can carry that state.

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conspiracy:

Arnold looked DOA at one point but was reelected in 2006. It isn't impossible to come back from big deficits, even for incumbents. Jesse Helms came back from way behind to edge Harvey Gantt in their 1990 Senate race. erry hit 50% in several polls during 2004. There are other examples. I put Christie as a narrow favorite but we have seen this movie in Jersey before.

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conspiracy:

Kerry hit 50% in several polls during 2004.

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Stillow:

I don't think economic condition affects congressional races as much as executive level elections such as governor and president. CA of all places booted Davis out and thru in Arnold who is an R, granted he is a liberal R, but an R nonetheless and it was because of the financial mess....in 2004 had the economy been bad Kerry would have beaten Bush, but in 2004 the economy was good. Executives have a tendancy to benefit or get punished based o nthe fiancnial situation in there respective areas.
People just tend to tos out the party holding power in the midst of downturns, especially severe downturns. CA is an intresting anomoly though, because you replaced a liberal Davis with a liberal Arnold....if fiscal conservatives can actually ifnd a competent candidate there, it would be intresting to see what happens there...since they have tried a liberal R and a liberal D and neither worked.

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Bigmike:

Has anyone ever won an election with unfavorable at 58%? I don't see how it is possible.

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