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NJ: Corzine 41, Christie 38 (DemCorps 10/6-7)


Democracy Corps (D)
10/6-7/09; 614 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(DemCorps release)

New Jersey

2009 Governor
41% Corzine, 38% Christie, 14% Daggett (chart)
(Last survey - 9/22-23: 39% Corzine, 40% Christie, 11% Daggett)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Jon Corzine (D): 37 / 46 (chart)
Chris Christie (R): 30 / 42
Chris Daggett (i): 15 / 18
Barack Obama: 54 / 29 (chart)

 

Comments
jmartin4s:

Go Corzine!

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tjampel:

Though all politics may be local and though the 2 current gubernatorial races are both ruled by a whole host of factors which relate to the candidates themselves and have little to do with the political directon of this country STILL...a loss of both state houses for the Dems would be a big blow, no matter how they'd spin it.

So, naturally this is great news for Dems, of which I'm one. It's too soon to say that Corzine has overtaken Christie or that he's even; we need another poll with Corzine in the lead for that; but Christie has become less and less palatable to independents as they've come to know him better.

Most significantly this is the first time Christie's favorables have been worse than Corzines. That's pretty hard to do!

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Stephen_W:

I'm pretty suspicious of this poll. Clearly Corzine is closing the gap, but a -12 point favorability rating drop in two weeks for Christie seems unlikely. What's the reasoning behind the drop? Surely negative ads couldn't have damaged him that badly.

From the report: "Among independent women, the drop is even more pronounced: from -7 two weeks ago to -34 today, with half of independent women giving him an unfavorable rating."

A -27 point swing in favorability among independent women in two weeks? Very suspicious...

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Stillow:

Polling in NJ is going to get real tricky for about 2-3 weeks. The more partisan pollsters are going to fudge a bit to try and garner support for their guy. The partisans do that, Rass will probably do it to for Christie. It won't be until the last week or maybe two where the partisan pollsters start reporting true numbers to maintain there credibility.

Its going to be a up and down polling session for a couple weeks while the fudge polling goes on. Probably not in VA because Mcdonnell is to far ahead, but NJ where its closer it'll be easier to fudge a bit before November.

Get ready for the ride...I hope this one is wrong or they let there partisanship fudge a bit, I'm in the mood to gloat!

Since I do not live in NJ at the end of the day if they want to hang themselves up there, I am ok with that. If they want to keep going downward like corzine has taken them, it really won't hurt me, just them. Like I say with CA, if the people are stupid enough to keep voting for the person or party making there lives miserable, then I say screw 'em....let them starve. You get what you vote for.

But I admit, after 2006 and 2008, I'd like a night of gloating this November....instead of getting hammered.

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Cyril Washbrook:

It's interesting to note that two-thirds of voters don't have an opinion on Daggett. That suggests to me that his vote won't be as high as some polling organisations are suggesting on election day. While people are often prepared when surveyed to plump for a candidate whom they know little about, I'd imagine the likelihood of doing that on election day - or for that matter, turning up to the polls - is much lower .

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lat:

NJ has been my home state off and on for a long time. In the 70's and 80's NJ was one of those "white flight" states I have talked about, but since then has become one of the most blue states in the country. You are dealing with a very affluent highly educated population along with a large minority contingent (it is often joked that NJ has become an extension of New York City and Philadelphia when it comes to voting patterns rather than the opposite of them) What many of you seem you be ignoring are the following-

1. Chris Christie is pro-life and pro-gun. This immediately puts any candidate in NJ at a disadvantage.Q. Since 1970 do you know how many NJ governors have been pro-life? A. ZERO!

2. The so called "hatred" towards Corzine is greatly exaggerated. I remember the days 20 years ago of then Governor Jim Florio- now he was hated (he promised not to raise taxes and did so anyway)! We are talking daily marches on Trenton calling for his head. Despite how despised he was he only lost his re-election bid by 1% and he lost to Christie Whitman who was a much better candidate than Chris Christie. Corzine is unpopular due to the economic downturn nothing more. The tax increases imposed by Corzine were exactly what he said he would do if needed so there is no broken promise there, in addition Corzine while not being the most dynamic fellow in the world is pretty average as far as personality goes (maybe a bit aloof).

3. Democrats have a 750,000 plus registration advantage in NJ which puts them in the drivers seat before the first campaign ad is run. I completely reject the notion that the gop "let this one get away" they never had it to begin with.

I am not saying that Christie cannot eek out a victory if all the stars align for him, but I would not bet on it that is for sure.

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brown cat:

Those Daggett numbers look to me like a lot of Democrats have figured out a way to register their disapproval with Corzine without actually voting for a Republican.

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tjampel:

A strong Republican candidate would win this race. Christie is a weak one. Therefore it's appropriate to say that this may be a race that "got away" from the Repubs. Now if Corzine ends up winning by 5% or more then this was all just a big "Jersey tease", but I think Corzine will eek it out by 2-3% max. I think that a Christie Whitman, for example, would have won easily this year.

Of course, in the current Republican party there are fewer and fewer Christie Todd Whitmans, and more and more Michelle Bachmans.

Florio was disliked by many but he was a far better campaigner than Corzine.

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havoc:

No way Corzine can win without Daggett Getting 20% of the vote witch is still very unlikely. Smart money is on Christie

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lat:

tjampel,

You hit the nail right on the head- There are not enough people like Christie Whitman and too many nutjobs like Michelle Bachmann who claim to represent "real america". One day The GOP is going to wake up and realize that you cannot run people who have the politics of Mississipi in a state like NJ. Obama won 85% of the minority vote (combined black and hispanic) in NJ in 08, in addition he won 60-40 among college educated white women and 2-1 among people with post graduate degrees. When you are walking into an election with #'s like these it is like swimming up a waterfall. People like Stillow would argue that this is due to a lack of leadership on behalf of the GOP. I say that is pure BS, I don't care how good your leadership skills are if you have politics that are out of the mainstream for states like NJ then you will lose time and time again. Christie Whitman actually won 33% of the minority vote when she ran the 2nd time and split college educated voters 50-50. It's amazing what a moderate republican can pull off when their views are more mainstream.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"Of course, in the current Republican party there are fewer and fewer Christie Todd Whitmans, and more and more Michelle Bachmans."

Yes, poll after poll shows that the republicans have at best an approval rating about half of what Obama's is, and that is after his approval has declined.

Someone moderate with good credentials like Mitt Romney (without the phoney-ness) would be a strong candidate for them, but they have very few. Pawlenty seems their best bet, and he's not terribly popular in his home state.

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Stillow:

lat

NJ voters are highly educated? How smart is it to keep voting for the party wh ohas bankrupted yourstate? Is that what smart people do?

Wait, let me guess, Corzine doing such a bad job is the fault of republicans right?

I still say Christie wins this....but like I said, if NJ wants to keep with that same old crap that has made them iserable...so be it. Some people like getting kicked i nthe face over and over.

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lat:

You know what Stillow I just made up my mind. I was 50-50 between Corzine and Daggett, but I am going to vote for Corzine because you admitted you wanted to gloat on election night (congrats you pushed me over the edge). I welcome the debate from people like you in order to remind me time and time again what the gop has become. You call my a flaming liberal, but if I told you past past voting record it would surprise you for sure. Happy gloating and good luck.

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Stillow:

What is all this talk about Christie being a bad candidate? NJ is solidly blue state and most polls show Christie leading. No matter how you look at this its not good news for the Dems in NJ that this race is even close. The GOP is supposed to be dead remember? People like Lat keep posting the GOP is a dying party, yet most polls have Christie winning in NJ, Corzine is only doing as well as he is because of a viable third party candidate....who I would not be surprised if Corzine was making contributions too!

What is this pro life and pro gun slamming? Most people in this country support the 2nd ammendment...and half the country is pro life. Yet those are not mainstream? Being pro life or pro choice are both mainstream because the country splits down hte middle on it. And beleiv eit or not, most people support abortion rights, but also support certian restrictions on abortion.

There is so much mumbo jumbo coming out of some you Dems its getting comical. You have a solid blue state where the blue governor has a dismal job approval and is trailing hi GOP opponent in 95% of polling done o nthis race, yet Christie is the bad candidate and the GOP is a dead party.

Buy some smelling salts or soemthing guys...you need to wake up from this dream world your living in.

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DairyStateG:

This poll tells me two things:

1 - Chris Christie has run a totally inept campaign, somehow failing to capitalize on Corzine's unfathomable Bush-like negatives.

2 - Finally, I've found a crop of voters more ignorant than those in Wisconsin.

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Stillow:

lat

I am glad I had an influence on you...but seriously, I am not the one who needs the good luck....your the one who might get stuck with Corzine again and will sit and watch your state continue to bankrupt itself....so it is I who will wish you good luck.

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