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NJ: Corzine 43 Christie 38 (DemCorps 10/27-28)


Democracy Corps (D)
10/27-28/09; 604 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(DemCorps release)

New Jersey

Favorable / Unfavorable
Jon Corzine: 40 / 43 (chart)
Chris Christie: 35 / 42
Barack Obama: 57 / 29 (chart)
Chris Daggett: 16 / 34

2009 Governor
43% Corzine, 38% Christie, 12% Daggett (chart)
47% Corzine. 42% Christie

 

Comments
IdahoMulato:

Christie is now a toast! His disapproval is inching up, up and up. This race will go to the wire and we're going to have a long night on Nov. 3.

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Stillow:

Oh no, a partisan left pollster has Corzine ahead 5 days before the election....geeee, no one saw that coming...........

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Philippe Magnan:

Intrade punters now give Corzine 70% chances of winning...

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Philippe Magnan:

Regarding Postal Voting in NJ

It will be the first time evah...

What are the odds of *cough* irregularities?

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Publius:

I just received my sample paper ballot in the mail and it's not difficult at all to find Daggett's name. If someone wanted to vote for him they shouldn't have problems.

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MJ:

Hi all,

I'm from here (NJ) and I'd like to know what kind of "random" sample gets you 56% of the respondents with either a BA (40%) or post graduate degree (16%).

Other than polling the attendees at some Hudson County NJEA Bolsheviks for JC rally, I defy anyone to show me exactly where all of this talent is.

It must be the same place where 77% of the people always vote, and 23% usually vote. I know the term is "likely voters", but there is only a small minority of voters that fit the fantasy land stats presented here.

I know, since the pollster is Dem Corps, they must have polled the North Arlington Cemetary in Bergen County.

As I often say, "I don't much believe in miracles, but as everyone here knows, the dead rise to vote in NJ every November!"

Go Phillies! Go Christie!

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The Moderator:

MJ - this is a likely voter model, which means, almost by definition, that people in the sample generally vote.

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MJ:

Hi Moderator,

I understand the likely voter model, but there is a difference between those who generally vote and those whi Always/Usually vote. If we can get a 10% turn out for School Board / Budget votes, that is a good day.

Even in 2008 with the biggest GOTV effort I have ever seen, we had a 67% turnout.

I suppose my only point is that the 77/23 split seems odd as there are two to three elections per year in NJ on average. Given the low turnout on the non-President / Governor election days, the 77/23 with no one in the other categories seems unrealistic.

But then again, JC having an unfavorable of less than 50 seems equally as unrealistic.

Thanks for the response!

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Farleftandproud:

The polls are so conflicting. I saw another Democratic pollster that had Christie ahead by one. This weekend is crunch time to make 1000's of calls for Corzine and encourage people to not vote for the third party. Third parties have their merits, but when the election is this close, make sure that Democratic leaning voters go for the incumbent. I don't dislike Christie personally, but Dems need this one just to cut the GOP's celebration next tuesday night in half. You can just bet if Christie pulls that off, Fox news will be telling everyone that "America's moral fabric is still alive and it is clear Obama's presidency is not reflecting the values of America". We have heard this line before and the less we hear the propoganda the better.

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MJ:

Hi Farleftandproud,

The only thing I can tell you is that living and working in NJ is tough. The D's have been running the show (both houses and the Governorship) for 8 years and the meat and potato issues for New Jerseyeans haven't gotten any better. As for Fox, and the GOP, many NJ Republicans loathe the GOP as they wrote off NJ years ago.

As for Federal politics and policies, they have a marginal impact on a people who pay, on average, $650 per month in property tax alone. So what if Faux News trumpets a Christie victory for a few days? They will just go back to molly-coddling the religious right by Veterans Day.

I wish the President well, but wouldn't wish a bad governor on the people of another state just to spite FNC, that's just down right mean spirited. Besides, the only people making this election a referendum on Obama are D's like Ed Rendell and Corey Booker using that tactic to stir the base.

11-03-09 is not about Obama, or the future of the D's or even the R's for that matter, it is about who will best serve NJ.

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RAG2:

@ Stillow:

Is EVERY poll that puts a Democrat, especially Corzine, at an advantage "a partisan left poller"? Or is it possible that the more NJ voters hear about Christie--and his lack of specific alternatives--the more they have second thoughts about dumping Corzy?

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RAG2:

PS: @ Stillow:

Not that I care too much about the NJ gov race, nor like Corzine all that much; if he loses, he's got only himself to blame. But I'd love to see him pull it out just to piss off hard-line right-wingers like you and send a cautionary message to Reps currently gleefully hoping to replay 1994 next year.

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RAG2:

@ MJ:

In the light of what you said, I guess my last swipe at Stillow was a tab "mean-spirited", just like those hoping for a Corzine victory just to spite FNC. But then, FNC and Stillow are habitually mean-spirited, vain, and dishonest themselves--so they kinda deserve it. My apologies for the mean tone, though.

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RAG2:

@ Farleftandproud:

I empathize with your feeling about FNC, but the fact is their going to granstand about even ONE Republican victory, even if it's just for county comptroller of Duluth. Fox is all spin. Remember how they displayed 2008's "Obama Wins" in LONGSHOT view?

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