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NJ: Corzine 43 Christie 41 (FDickinson 10/22-11/1)


Fairleigh Dickinson / PublicMind
10/22-11/1/09; 1,119 likely voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Fairleigh Dickinson release)

New Jersey

Favorable / Unfavorable
Corzine: 40 / 52
Christie: 39 / 45
Daggett: 29 / 21

2009 Governor
Corzine 43%, Christie 41%, Daggett (vol) 8%

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Corzine: 37 / 52
Pres. Obama: 53 / 37

Editors note: This final release by Fairleigh Dickinson combines results from a survey they released last week (conducted 10/22-10/28) with just n=425 interviews conducted since, for which they have not reported results separately. Since our policy is to include only non-overlapping results, and since this latest release would plot on the end-date of an 11 day field period, we have opted to leave it off of our trend estimate chart.

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

If the poor people and younger voters don't show up to the polls tomorrow and Christie wins, I don't want to see the minority groups and young voters at college campuses in NJ complaining about the GOP Governor. I don't live in NJ, but common sense tells me for those who do, keep the momentum going and keep the hope rising. The GOP wants a total sweep tomorrow but you can't give it to them. This is NJ not Virginia. Keep it blue!

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Field Marshal:

Personally, i would rather see Corzine win tomorrow so that the shmucks that live and vote in NJ get what they deserve. Higher taxes and more migration to the south and west.

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Julia:

This is the third poll showing Corzine ahead today. Everyone I know is voting enthusiastically and for Corzine. Despite the dominant discourse that the Republicans are ascending tomorrow, don't count us Democrats out yet!

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RaleighNC:

Christie by 2..even after all the "found" democrat ballots.

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Stillow:

Oh no, if its a close race, acorn and "found" votes for zorine will push him over....republicans cannot win close races anymore, christie has to win by at least 50,000...

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Vert Man:

Poor Stillow and his parties obsession with ACORN. lol. If a loon far right candidate loses it's always ACORN not the fact that voters chose the candidate who seemed to favor reality instead of outer space.

Christie is NOT a far right loon but if he loses then I can hear the conservative's howling about ACORN now.

Florida 2000 is a classic example of a REAL stolen election.

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Gopherguy:

I have a question for Stillow and Field Marshal. So if you 2 would oblige I would appreciate it. Let's say Hoffman wins tomorrow.

1. Will the right go after Crist, call him a RINO, and get Rubio the nod?

2. Should the right go after Crist and give Rubio the nod? Is this smart politics for the right in the long run?

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Louis:

at this point the real issue is the ground game. The early vote is overwhelingly Corzine if the pollsters are correct. But did they get out enoug of them and will they be able to turn out the rest when the disapproval rate is so high. Governors races tend to won on local issues. In NJ those are Property taxes and corruption.
This is going to rest on on who does the best job of getting the voters to the polls.
My head says Corzine by 1 but my gut says Christie by 2. We will find out soon enough.

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Gopherguy:

Ground game favors Corzine big time.

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Cyril Washbrook:

I don't think anyone has an obvious advantage here, ground game or not. Corzine extinguished Christie's lead a couple of weeks ago but it's been touch and go since then.

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MJ:

Hi all,

As an actual New Jerseyean (yes, FM, one of those schmucks that live in NJ) all I can say is that Republicans from the Northeast are the last real Republicans left. Here, we didn't sell out to the bible-thumpers that drove the GOP into the ground like and auger. As for Charlie Crist, the State of Virginia, Fox News and ACORN, piss on them all.

There are good Democrats in NJ, Jim Florio and Dick Codey to name a few, but they aren't running. If Joltin' Jonnie Corzine is the Allah of all things Democrat, then you all who want him to win so badly should have him carpetbag to your state so he can do to you what he has done to all of us here.

As for the ground game, even with all of his money, he still can't get the turn out he needs. For if he could, this race would have been over before it began. Now that the D's have been found out bankrolling Daggett's campaign it shows that Corzine is both sad and pathetic.

Without Daggett, Corzine goes down in defeat on the magnitude of 58 / 42. That's a refferendum on how awful he has been, and many of you want to saddle NJ with 4 more years of that??? And for what?? It ain't 2008, you all won and won big nationally. Leave NJ to its own destiny.

And lastly, Vert Man, Gore should have asked for a statewide recount. There, he won by 527 votes. He zigged when he should have zagged. Maybe Bush stole it, but it was only after Gore gave it away.

This is the end of MJ's kick-ass rant of the day.

Go Christie!

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Field Marshal:

"1. Will the right go after Crist, call him a RINO, and get Rubio the nod?

2. Should the right go after Crist and give Rubio the nod? Is this smart politics for the right in the long run?"


No, i wouldn't categorize Crist as a RINO, nor would i call McCain one either. Sozzafava was a RINO, hands down however.

For me, there are several qualifications to be a rep: pro-life, pro second amendment, small government, lower taxes, and less stringent regulation. I can forgive a rep candidate one, maybe two of those, but not all.

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IdahoMulato:

@MJ
The political landscape is now more polarized and many dems who otherwise wouldn't vote for Corzine are going to do so to counter the right wind annoying talking points. My half brother, who lives in Newark had determined to vote for Daggett but has now decided to go all out for Corzine and many will do same.

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tjampel:

Christie is looking better the last few days than he did last week, but that's probably due to Daggett voters coming home. Christie hasn't done anything positive lately and there's been no earth-shattering news about Corzine. Only Democracy Corps has Daggett remaining at his highest level; the other polls have him at 8-10. Assuming he was at 14 before and lost an avg of 5% this should translate into a gain for Christie of a point or perhaps a bit more. Still he's up in some polls and down in others.

The good news for Corzine may be that we've seen the end of Daggett's mini-collapse.

Corzine has a lot more money for GOTV but Christie's voters are mainly voting because of fears about their own homes. No idea at this point. I guess I have to stick with my earlier Corzine by 2% but it might be by 2 votes. This might just be heading into OT.

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Mark in LA:

You have to be a real limp dick to start using excuses for why you will lose before the votes are even counted. And yes, I am talking to you Stillow.
If the GOP loses New Jersey, it's because their candidate didn't measure up.
If the Democrats lose, it will be because their candidate didn't measure up.
The same goes for NY and VA. Only limp dicks and/or delusional tea-bagging dickheads can't accept the possibility that a majority of voters in another state won't always agree with your enlightened God-guided choice of candidates.
As a Progressive, I am prepared to lose 2 out of three in VA, NY, and NJ. If we lose all 3 of the major races today and I won't be making excuses. I'll be hoping and preparing to do better in 2010.

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Bigmike:

Mighty civil of you Mark.

CNN just projected Christie as the winner on their web site

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Stillow:

Ya Mark is acting very grown up today.

Bigmike.....I saw that too, but it must be wrong...because libs on this site tell us a republican cannot win in NJ....and tell us stories of how no republican has won in NJ for years ....blah blah.

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MJ:

You know, I just gotta do it.

Christie by 5!

If they took all of the blatantly left leaning polls out of the equation, all you haters out there would have realized that Corzine was doomed weeks ago!

In savoring a hard fought victory, to all of you non-New Jerseyeans and disgruntled hope and change weenies, a pox on all your houses!

MJ, Out!

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Stillow:

It must have been my $250 donation to the Christie campaign that pushed him over the top! I had Christie by 4, but i will take 5....!

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