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NJ: Corzine 43 Christie 41 (Monmouth 10/31-11/1)


Monmouth University / Gannett
10/31-11/1/09; 722 likely voters, 3.7% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Monmouth release)

New Jersey

2009 Governor
Corzine 43%, Christie 41%, Daggett 8% (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Corzine: 40 / 44 (chart)
Christie: 40 / 38
Daggett: 21 / 21

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Corzine: 36 / 54 (chart)

 

Comments
platanoman:

Another poll? This is weird.

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Stillow:

Corzine still doing better with live interviews.

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lat:

Stillow,

What is up with that? Chuck Todd said on Morning Joe this am that he is very suspect of "robo" polls(particularly ones done over the weekend). As I have said many times I am no polling expert and don't see much of a difference between answering questions to a live person vs. an automated system (other than the fact that the automated system is definitely more annoying)?

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What? No Polaris commentary on this one yet? Gee, I wonder why. Remember, history says that Democrats running Statewide always do better than the pollsters say in NJ.

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Gopherguy:

The reason why Chuck Todd is suspicious is because Halloween was on Saturday. Democrats tend to be away from home on holidays while Republicans tend to stay in. Therefore, there is a bias in polling because an unrepresentative polling sample was taken.

In other words, he is suspicious because more Republicans were probably polled, thus skewing the results.

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Stillow:

lat

With live interviews it allows the interviewer to impose bias if they have one on the way they may ask a question, or the tone they use. Plus in person someone might not want another live person to know how they really vote.

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LordMike:

Stillow, supposedly live interview polls are more broad 'cos they can coax reluctant callers into taking a poll. In effect, people who answer IVR polls are highly motivated, so there is some self-selection bias. Nate Silver suggest that helps identify more likely voters, but that the screening may end up being too tight. We'll get a good idea tomorrow about how IVR polls will have fared.

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Gopherguy:

The truth is, this race is a complete toss up. Nobody knows who actually is leading. Definition of a 50-50 race right here.

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Stillow:

Really? There is polling data showing dems love candy and republicans don't? Can you send me a link to this data...or is that just your opinion?

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lat:

Having been polled more than a few times over the years I find the live interviewer sounds like they are reading off a script rather than pushing a point of view.

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Gopherguy:

Two comments.

1 Many right wing, christian conservatives feel like Halloween is devil worship (people in Bachman's district, for example, don't allow schools to have Halloween parties in school and believe Harry Potter is devil worship and witchcraft), and therefore, they don't celebrate Halloween.

2. Liberals tend to party more, so they take advantage of days to go out and party hard. This is more my experience than fact, so this is more opinion than comment one.

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Stillow:

I had a pollster call me during 2008 and I coudl totally tell he was a Mccain supporter.

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Stillow:

Gopherguy

Ok so its your opinion....I didn't think there was any polling data.

Come out with me next year, I was making my kids get more candy cus its more for me to steal!

On the partying, thats a negative. My freinds and I got quite rowdy in our day.....see, now your bringing back memories. Chasing women and drinking colored drinks......yes, good ole days!

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Gopherguy:

I agree that the partying was my opinion and could be completely wrong. However, I stand by the christian comment. Many christian communities do not celebrate Halloween due to witchcraft and devil worship, meaning these people would be disproportionately at home being polled, meanwhile celebrators are out with their kids or at a party.

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Gopherguy:

I forgot to mention that those communities also heavily favor Republicans.

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Stillow:

Christains do these thigns called harvest festivals on halloween. i know, I used to date a girl who was a southern baptist and was always at church. On halloween they all went to church and did this giant harvest festibal thing...was actually pretty fun.

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lat:

Stillow,

You mentioned to me in a post some weeks back that my hatred towards evangelical christians is obvious from my posts. At the time I chose not to respond, but I will now. You are correct and I freely admit it. I myself am Christian (episcopalian) and believe it or not go to church from time to time. With that said I consider my faith private and would not ever have the balls to suggest that my religion is superior to any other or that "my way" is the "only" way to heaven. That however, is only part of it. My wife grew up in South Carolina and happens to be Jewish. I hope don't have to educate you on what growing up Jewish in the 70's in a town that was 99% baptist, etc. Maybe you cannot relate to someone who was asked to recite the lords prayer at school everyday and then was ostracized for not doing so, in addtion to being told countless #'s of times that she would go to hell for not accepting Jesus (this is only the tip of the iceberg, but you get the point). To me these people are truly vile and offensive and make me ashamed to call myself a Christian. As long as the gop continues to court people like this they will NEVER get my vote.

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RaleighNC:

Union households will not answer a live pollster as accurately as a robocall I believe. They may be afraid of the reprecussions. I still say Christie by 2.

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Stillow:

lat

Well as a social libertarian I keep my religion private as its nones business but my own. Both sides have fundamentalists that most of us would love if they got transported to Mars and stayed there. The far left and far right bases are a little nutty. I supported...and people like me used to be republicns because of there stances o nfiscal issues. Small g'ment, low taxes, pro business, pro growth, etc....because those are the things I feel are the best ways to make prosperity fo the most number of people.

Christie does not sound to me from what I have read to be a relgious nut job....his focus is on fiscal issues, lowering NJ's huge tax burden on its people, getting there budget under control...just bringing some sanity back to the states fnancial structure.

Don't cut off your nose to spite your face.

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Polaris:

The problem with this poll is it's model for Indy voters. I don't believe for a moment given all the other evidence that Christie is only up 10 with Indies in NJ.

-Polaris

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IdahoMulato:

I'm a born-again Christian and believe Jesus Christ is the only way to heaven; leave or take it. At the same time I'm a strong democrat. This is because I believe in the separation of church and state and don't care who other or what people believe in.

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Polaris:

Told all of you so. Christie won the Indy vote big.

-Polaris

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