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NJ: Corzine 44 Christie 43 (FDickinson 9/28-10/5)


Fairleigh Dickinson University / PublicMind
9/28-10/5/09; 667 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Fairleigh Dickinson release)

New Jersey

Favorable / Unfavorable
Jon Corzine (D): 37 / 54 (chart)
Chris Christie (R): 35 / 42
Chris Daggett: 16 / 7

2009 Governor (chart)
Corzine 44%, Christie 43%, Daggett (vol.) 4%
Corzine 38%, Christie 37%, Daggett 17%

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Corzine: 29 / 69 (chart)

 

Comments
RaleighNC:

If Daggett gets 17% in the election I will be stunned. It's one thing to want to vote for a 3rd party, but it's another thing to realize your vote will mean more of the same.

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Cyril Washbrook:

Mind you, this poll does confirm that Christie's vote on election day will be heavily dependent on how well Daggett does.

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jmartin4s:

Im actually surprised because I wasn't expecting Corzine to lead in any polls till the very end of October. I wonder what Stillow has to say about this one.

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tjampel:

The report on this poll from FDU is pretty entertaining reading. Christie's just taking on so much water right now that, when you name an independent ANY INDEPENDENT, or so it seems, they grab at least 12% of the vote. So when pollsters used unknown Gary Steele as the 3rd party candidate he still gets 12% of the vote.

But even without reading Daggett's name to likely voters Corzine is up 44% TO 43%. Introducing Daggett draws exactly 6% from EACH and another 5% who were undecided flock to Daggett.

Looks like Daggett is surging, Corzine is holding steady, Christie is imploding. Of course.

More interesting notes:
Republicans who have an opinion about who won the debate say that Daggett whupped Christie ...by a two to one margin.

Whereas Christie was ahead of Corzine on the issue of being "honest-trustworthy" by a huge 10% he now trails by 3%.

Lastly Corzine is starting to pull away, among NJ-ites as the candidate they believe will win the race. It's now up to 49% vs 37% for Corzine. In the last survey (taken in Sept) that number was 45% to 41% Corzine.

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Stillow:

@jmartin4s

Not a whole lot. Not good numbers for Christie, but its one poll when every other poll shows differently and its from a pollster I am not even familliar with. Could be an outlier, before Iget all worked up I need one or two more polls to confirm.

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IdahoMulato:

This race is headed to the wire. Although Corzine has a very low approval rating, NJers are finding it difficult to thrust the state to the Party of No.

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Wong:

It looks like Corzine just broke 42%, Stillow. IF Republicans can't beat Corzine in Jersey, they haven't got prayer of taking back the House in 2010.

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Stillow:

Guys, its "one" poll from some pollster I don't think I've even heard of. You need a couple more before you lefties get excited.

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jmartin4s:

The reason we are getting excited is because NJ dems all out perform their polls. When CTW was running in 93 she had double digit leads going into the election and won by 1%. The fact that Corzine has posted even 1 lead in a poll is bad news for Christie. If the republicans had picked someone better like Thomas Kean Jr., they would have beaten Corzine.

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Stillow:

Would have beaten? Christie will probably win.

I am wondering if Corzine is Dagget's #1 contributor..........

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Gopherguy:

Trend is definitely in Corzine's favor. This race is probably now even, but Corzine is trending up and Christie is trending down. I would now say 50-50 race.

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Stillow:

Wow, you Dems sure put a lot of weight to one single poll from aome pollster no one ever heard of before. But there hasn't been much good news in this race for the libs, so I guess I understand the attachment to a favorable poll, outlier or not.

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polls_apart:

@Stillow:
Try Googling "Fairleigh Dickinson polling". I found the following:
Mar. 4, 2009: 41-32 Chrisie leading
Sept. 1, 2009 47-42 Christie leading

Look at the Web page http://publicmind.fdu.edu

They've been polling since 2001. Admittedly, not as long as Gallup or Rasmussen. But they didn't just fall off of the turnip truck. You can't just dismiss this poll out-of-hand, but I agree that we need to see other polling to confirm this.

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polls_apart:

@Stillow:
Try Googling "Fairleigh Dickinson polling". I found the following:
Mar. 4, 2009: 41-32 Christie leading
Sept. 1, 2009: 47-42 Christie leading

Look at the Web page http://publicmind.fdu.edu

They've been polling since 2001. Admittedly, not as long as Gallup or Rasmussen. But they didn't just fall off of the turnip truck. You can't just dismiss this poll out-of-hand, but I agree that we need to see other polling to confirm this.

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polls_apart:

@Stillow:
Try Googling "Fairleigh Dickinson polling". I found the following:
Mar. 4, 2009: 41-32 Christie leading
Sept. 1, 2009: 47-42 Christie leading

Look at the Web page http://publicmind.fdu.edu

They've been polling since 2001. Admittedly, not as long as Gallup or Rasmussen. But they didn't just fall off of the turnip truck. You can't just dismiss this poll out-of-hand, but I agree that we need to see other polling to confirm this.

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polls_apart:

@Stillow:
Try Googling "Fairleigh Dickinson polling". I found the following:
Mar. 4, 2009: 41-32 Christie leading
Sept. 1, 2009: 47-42 Christie leading

Look at the Web page http://publicmind.fdu.edu

They've been polling since 2001. Admittedly, not as long as Gallup or Rasmussen. But they didn't just fall off of the turnip truck. You can't just dismiss this poll out-of-hand, but I agree that we need to see other polling to confirm this.

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polls_apart:

All:
Sorry about the triplicate posts.

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Stillow:

Heh, I guess you really wanted me to google it!

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