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NJ: Corzine 44 Christie 43 (FDickinson 10/22-28)


Fairleigh Dickinson / PublicMind
10/22-28/09; 694 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Fairleigh Dickinson release)

New Jersey

Favorable / Unfavorable
Corzine: 39 / 54 (chart)
Christie: 41 / 44
Daggett: 28 / 23

2009 Governor (chart)
Corzine 44%, Christie 43%, Daggett (vol.) 6%
Christie 41%, Corzine 39%, Daggett 14%

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Corzine: 37 / 52 (chart)
Pres. Obama: 52 / 37 (chart)

 

Comments
Field Marshal:

Its going to be a long night on Tuesday.

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melvin:

AM LOOKING AT THESE CRAZY POLLS,BUT THE TRUTH IS CORZINE IS GOING TO WIN BY 8%,AND MCDONELL IS ONLY GOING TO WIN BY 4%,BECAUSE THE MINORITY VOTE IS JUST TO BIG FOR MCDONELL TO WIN BY 18%IF HE DOES WIN BY THAT MARGIN IT MEANS MCDONELL WOULD HAVE GOTTEN 76% OF THE WHITE VOTE IN VIRGINIA,BUT WHO KNOWS BECAUSE MCCAIN GOT 62% OF THE WHITE VOTE IN VIRGINA AGAINST OBAMA.

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Polaris:

You need to report this the same way Real Clear Politics is.

Daggett is on the ballot and so the valid survey is the one that explicitly allows Daggett as an option (no matter what I think of Daggett's final chances).

-Polaris

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Field Marshal:

Melvin,

Do you really think the minority vote will show up like they did in 2008 without Obama on the ballot?

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Aaron_in_TX:

I think Melvin is inartfully trying to say that, if trends continue, Democrats will have a strong inherent advantage because of the minority vote in the future. Unless republicans improve their standing among minorities, they will need a significant handicap to win national races. Kind of like how the "reagan democrats" gave republicans such an advantage it was hard for democrats to get over 45-48% for a generation. The minority vote will be kind of a stacked deck, if trends continue.

However, hispanics currently only make up 5% of the electorate in VA, and they are not hyped about Deeds, and blacks are 20% of the electorate, but something like 20-30% of them are supporting McDonnell. That's what happens when you try to win by playing to the other side's base.

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Aaron_in_TX:

It wouldn't surprise me if McDonnell gets more than 70% of the white vote in VA. The turnout is likely to favor republicans.

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