9/5-8/08; 584 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 48, McCain 45
Sen: Lautenberg (D-i) 51, Zimmer (R) 40
Posted on September 12, 2008 8:45 PM
Does this meam that another blue state is in play?
Posted on September 12, 2008 8:46 PM
Does this mean that another blue state is in play?
This poll is already stale--it was in the field in the days immediately following McCain's convention.
NJ has a history of polling closely, but ultimately going for Democrats. See:
Posted on September 12, 2008 8:53 PM
No way New Jersey goes Red. Obama may lose the election, but it won't be due to New Jersey.
Springsteen and Bon Jovi won't let it happen.
Posted on September 12, 2008 9:04 PM
New Jersey: Obama 48, McCain 44.06
16.57% Chance of McCain Victory
Posted on September 12, 2008 9:12 PM
Wow, Obama only up by 3 in NJ? Man I thought that was the bluest of blue states.
Posted on September 12, 2008 9:28 PM
New Jersey! You big Republican tease! :p
Posted on September 12, 2008 9:41 PM
Anyone else see that 300,000 NJ voters who were already registered received a "mass mailing" telling them they weren't registered? It turned out that if they called in to the voter registrar office they most likely were registered. Yet the secretary of state refuses to say it was a mistake.
Anyways, I think NJ will go blue. Same with PA; it always is close, but ends up going dem in the end.
Posted on September 12, 2008 10:38 PM
It all depends on what the white working class voters do. Obama will destroy McCain in the big cities (Newark, Camden) and in progressive enclaves outside of Philly and NYC. BUT - what about the rest of the state?
Posted on September 12, 2008 11:30 PM
This poll is worthless. It was conducted during the height of McCain's convention/Palin bounce. If Obama's lead is still only three points two weeks from now, Obama should be very worried.
Posted on September 13, 2008 12:41 AM
Remember four years ago when the Bush people started making noise about playing for NJ? Notice they NEVER did any events in NJ outside the Philadelphia media market, nor did they advertise in the northern half of the state (in the very expensive NYC media market).
Posted on September 13, 2008 9:50 AM
hey, i have been ranting about WI and NJ as my personal bell weather states for mccain and saying all along they would cave. all you lemmings did was spout the talking head dullards.
hillary took NJ by enormous margins..it was bound to happen. NJ has always been in play if you track back and see the trend lines.
but obama people just yell loud and think the polls somehow listen to their cacophony.
now watch WI cave. i will say it again, when WI caves as it will by this friday if a poll is taken, the mid west falls like dominoes for mccain.
no predictions..just look at the trend lines use yur eyeballs and the story being told.
stories that slowly gain traction this close to the close of the GE have little ability to revert unless some untoward event erupts the narrative. and it wasnt the palin interview.
palin held her own against the condescending gibson who himself didnt have a clue what the bush doctrine is.
i doubt obama could have harumphed his way through the same question without totally embarassing himself.
as it turns out, Ms palin was closer to some doctrine or other out of the bush white house than i dare say anyone on the ground even knew.
me included. i thought the doctrine was that no two democracies have ever gone to war against eachother.
anyway...if mccain holds this small lead, and lets be honest the national stats are still kinda slim, that is hardly a predictor of outcome.
the predictor is the kind of collapsing of the blue states scenario which has been steady and mounting.
so as NJ goes so goes the country.
Posted on September 13, 2008 10:56 AM
I'm a jersey gal, and there is no way the state is going red...
where are the internals?
There are more registered Dems in NJ than Rep.. NJ added 500K dems in the primary-- Pew data suggest that 36% D, 21% R -- leaving 43% as undeclared independents..
Tweak their numbers with that electorate distribution and i get something closer to reality-- 40 vs. 54
AND obama is winning by 10 pts among Independents.. how do you get a 3 point diff..
Posted on September 13, 2008 12:21 PM
"Obama may be ahead by 7% in Marist New Jersey poll but it shrinks to 3% when restricting the sample to likely voters and leaners. Theoretically, as the change candidate that is bringing new voters into the fold, Obama's voters are less likely to be considered a "likely voter" in these polls. And it could be possible that his level of support is actually much higher than reported."
Posted on September 13, 2008 9:16 PM
Comments: (you may use HTML tags for style)
Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.
Please email us to report offensive comments.
See our comment policy here. Note that we require commenters to share their email address via Typekey. We will never share your email address with anyone without your explicit permission.
MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR