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NJ: Obama 48, McCain 45 (Quinnipiac-9/10-14)

Topics: PHome

Quinnipiac University
9/10-14/08; 1,187 LV, 2.8%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

New Jersey
Obama 48, McCain 45
(August: Obama 51, McCain 41)

 

Comments
RaleighNC:

New Jersey flirting with Republicans again! Shame on them for teasing! I guess it wouldn't hurt to send some campaign surrogates there like Giuliani or Romney. TV ad buys? Tough call.

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HaloFan:

if the repubs get NJ its all over
but I dought they will

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tjampel:

Most expensive TV market in the country since it's essentially 100% outof state....NYC + Philly

I'm praying to see those ads since that means fewer of them in CO and VA

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Tybo:

this is not a good poll for Obama.

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damitajo1:

I can't see it - but who knows. NJ has had Repub. governor before, and the state is in the toilet. Many people might blame the Dems. Plus, this was Clinton country.

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freedomreigns:

If this poll stays static for another week, THEN it means something. Rigth now, this poll isn't something I put alot of clout in.

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carl29:

It seems that our friends in New Jersey keep on playing their usual game :-)

For years ago, the story was the exact same:

In August Kerry was up by 10% with Quinnipiac
Quinnipiac | 8/19-8/23 Bush 39% vs. Kerry 49%

In September Kerry was TIE with Bush
Quinnipiac | 9/16-9/19 Bush 48% vs. Kerry 48%

Day after day, it looks kind of the same story from 2000 and 2004. After the dust is settled, the states in play this year look to be more or less the same that were in play in 2000 and 2004.


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PHGrl:

Monmouth has a NJ poll now out too..

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP18_1.pdf

49 O 41 M

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Tybo:

"Most expensive TV market in the country since it's essentially 100% outof state....NYC + Philly"

It's the GOP national part that will advertize in this state, tying the ads to both state and federal offices.

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RaleighNC:

Shouldn't NJ go light blue? The MOE is under 7. There are light red states with greater MOE.

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Jacob S:

NJ always flirts with Republicans, but always votes for Democrats by a comfortable margin. I would keep the state as dark blue.

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KipTin:

Kerry won NJ by +6.7, less than half of Gore's victory (+15.8).

RCP has NJ as light blue since Sept. 9 (Bergen poll).

Advertising in NJ market is a twofer, because of adjacent PA.

As of the end of August GOP (McCain & RNC) has $200 million on hand, whereas Obama and DNC have just less than half ($95 million). I would not "worry" about McCain campaign financial security. Obamanation should worry about Obama having a $34 million shortfall from his August fundraising goal ($100 million/month) and all the time he has to now spend attending fund-raising events. As Obama is so occupied, you will see Biden more and more. Whereas, both McCain and Palin can campaign full time.

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carl29:

For years ago, the story was the exact same:

In August Kerry was up by 10% with Quinnipiac
Quinnipiac | 8/19-8/23 Bush 39% vs. Kerry 49%

In September Kerry was TIE with Bush
Quinnipiac | 9/16-9/19 Bush 48% vs. Kerry 48%

Day after day, it looks kind of the same story from 2000 and 2004. After the dust is settled, the states in play this year look to be more or less the same that were in play in 2000 and 2004.


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carl29:

For years ago, the story was the exact same:

In August Kerry was up by 10% with Quinnipiac
Quinnipiac | 8/19-8/23 Bush 39% vs. Kerry 49%

In September Kerry was TIE with Bush
Quinnipiac | 9/16-9/19 Bush 48% vs. Kerry 48%

In addition, Real Clear Politics had the following numbers in New Jersey:

For years ago, the story was the exact same (actually, Kerry was in worst shape):

RCP Average 9/3-9/19 Bush 45.3 vs. Kerry 45.3
Tie

RCP Average 9/4-9/14 Obama 48.3 vs McCain 43.0 Obama +5.3

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Sergei Groinka:

Obama can start yelling at Jerseyboys now.

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HaloFan:

Dear Carl...

Please stop comparing Kerry to Obama

First Obama is more of a socialist than Kerry (I know it’s hard to believe that)

And Obama is African American (well half) and don’t forget his roots (middle name is Hussein)

Please I am not being a racist, its just the facts. Comparing Obama to Kerry is comparing apples to chalk

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Sergei Groinka:

Democrats in NJ are saying that this swing is due to large number of Jersey Italians now supporting Palin/MxCain. That is more than enough for Nobamites to start playing the Racist card.

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carl29:

Dear Halo: I don't understand exactly how your opionions about X person race or X person ideology has to do with my bringing up real, hard facts. Nothing else. I didn't give an opinion, I just pointed out that New Jersey's numbers at this time were quite similar to those in 2004.

So, now this is my question, since Sen. Obama is doing better than Kerry in 2004 at this time in the race, are you suggesting that people from New Jersey like black, liberal politians better than white, liberal* politians?

*Remember than in 2004 Kerry was also ranked as the most liberal senator, just like Obama is this year.

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