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NJ: Obama 49, McCain 41 (Monmouth-9/11-14)

Topics: PHome

Monmouth University / Gannett
9/11-14/08; 589 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

New Jersey
Obama 49, McCain 41
(July: Obama 50, McCain 36)

 

Comments
NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Expect to find a lot of libs jump on this poll quickly! They'll claim everyting including November win by a landslide!

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Dave:

You said it first. I think you are onto something.

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KipTin:

Obama lost his lead by 6 points in two months. That is not looking good when compared to the other recent NJ polls. Obama has a problem in Jersey.

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BLeigh82:

Clearly, there is movement to McCain in New Jersey right now. This state may end up around a 5% Obama win, but I don't expect it to flip in this election.

That said...most of the polls are clearly showing a McCain boost. Especially in many battleground states.

And no NeverMet...not every lib is trying to sell the memo that an Obama landslide is going to happen. Truth is, in my opinion, the election is very, very close right now, but McCain has the slight edge. The debates will probably go a long way in deciding this thing. I hope for the sake of the country, the debates are spent mostly on the issues and none of the other crap most of this campaign has focused on.

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NW Patrick:

LOL Wishfil thinking. MI, WI, NJ, NONE WILL FLIP folks. You micro this polls too much. These states will pull away for Obama come Nov., especially with McCain's ties to the troubled economy! He's screwed.

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rdw4potus:

I'm thinking that Obama in NJ is like my state rep in my neighborhood. I've lived in Highland Park in St. Paul for 7 years. I've watched my rep be reelected 2 (basically 3) times. Each cycle, the republican challenger out spends and out organizes the incumbent democrat. At the end of the day, my rep wins reelection 70% to 30%. The district is split 74-26, and there's just no getting around that. People can be excited about answering polls and showing their willingness to vote for McCain all they want, but there are just too many silent democratic voters for McCain to ever overcome in NJ (and WA & OR).

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faithhopelove:

Both of the NJ polls released today were in the field last week. They include McCain's bounce days and a day of polling on 9/11 (likely favorable to McCain). Neither poll includes interviews from yesterday, and they therefore do not reflect any reaction to the distressing economic news.

No poll since March has shown McCain ahead in NJ (and that a 1-point lead in a right-leaning Rasmussen poll). The most recent polls have Obama ahead there by 6, 3, 9, 3, and 8 points. Historically, NJ polls have teased Republicans, with NJ voters breaking late for Democrats. In 2004, a mid-September SUSA poll found Bush ahead in NJ by 4 points; two other polls from the same time found ties. See:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/nj_polls.html

Oh, by the way--one of the polls finding a tie was a Q poll.

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KipTin:

FYI... New Jersey already has its own "distressing economic news" and has been in that realm for some time.

And does Obamanation think that Obama should just ASS-U-ME that NJ will go blue and not spend any effort there? (Ask Gore about Tennessee.)

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carl29:

Real Clear Politics had the following numbers in New Jersey for years ago:


RCP Average 9/3-9/19 Bush 45.3 vs. Kerry 45.3
Tie

RCP Average 9/4-9/14 Obama 48.4 vs McCain 42.6 Obama +5.8

So, for some reason Kerry tie with Bush at this exact same time 4 years ago didn't mean that:
a)Kerry had a "New Jersey" problem
b)New Jersey will end up in the GOP column

Can someone explain to me why this is such a horrendous showing for Obama in New Jersey, when he is indeed overperforming Kerry?

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KipTin:

Because this is 2008 and not 2004.

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carl29:

Hard to argue against the facts, eh? love it. This is exactly what I'm trained to do. Remember that I am a law student. I don't argue opinions. This is a Democracy and everyone is entitle to his or her own opinion; however, his or her facts?

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Tybo:

it's a fact that bush and obama have the same "b" in their names.

Hence Obama will win , just like bush.

There... some more Carl29 logic

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carl29:

"There... some more Carl29 logic"

I haven't given my opinion. If you scroll up, you will find just facts, hard, cold facts. Ah..what is your conclusion based on the findings? I don't know. I am just a fact-finder. Nothing more; nothing less :-)

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JFactor:

I wouldn't draw any dramatic conclusions from this poll. NJ has got closer but it's very unlikely to flip. Obama is ahead by at least 5% and the past week was McCain's best week. NJ is staying blue. If it isn't, Obama's going to lose by a landslide and I don't think that's a fair assumption for anybody to make except super-partisan trolls.

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carl29:

Real Clear Politics had the following numbers in New Jersey four years ago:


RCP Average 9/3-9/19 Bush 45.3 vs. Kerry 45.3
Tie

RCP Average 9/4-9/14 Obama 48.4 vs McCain 42.6 Obama +5.8

So, for some reason Kerry tie with Bush at this exact same time 4 years ago didn't mean that:
a)Kerry had a "New Jersey" problem
b)New Jersey will end up in the GOP column

Can someone explain to me why this is such a horrendous showing for Obama in New Jersey, when he is indeed overperforming Kerry?

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carl29:

Real Clear Politics had the following numbers in New Jersey four years ago:


RCP Average 9/3-9/19 Bush 45.3 vs. Kerry 45.3
Tie

RCP Average 9/4-9/14 Obama 48.4 vs McCain 42.6 Obama +5.8

So, for some reason Kerry tie with Bush at this exact same time 4 years ago didn't mean that:
a)Kerry had a "New Jersey" problem
b)New Jersey will end up in the GOP column

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mattn:

IIRC, in presidential elections New Jersey typically polls closer than the results, which are always a Dem victory. Don't know why this is, or if it will be the case this time too, but it's worth keeping in mind. (FWIW, I think Colorado has been the opposite in this respect, polling closer than the eventual GOP win there the last few cycles.)

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KipTin:

2004... Bush had advantage as incumbent. Kerry had advantage of those against Iraq War.

2008... There is NO incumbent running. Obama has advantage of 8 years of Bush (including Iraq War and economy). Democrat is supposed to trump GOP. Obama has NO excuse for doing not so well in NJ.

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StandardDeviation:

@KipTin

Does anyone really think that New Jersey is a key battleground state? C'mon. If McCain wins NJ, he's won the election in a walk.

Same argument can be made for Georgia or NC...if Obama carries those states come November, he's winning a landslide.

In either of those scenarios, we will know the outcome of the election long before there is clarity on NJ or NC, etc. b/c the real swing states will have moved safely into one camp or the other.

NJ is not going to win it for McCain in a squeaker electoral win.

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RaleighNC:

Rasmussen has Obama +13 in New York. Not surprising.

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carl29:

Real Clear Politics had the following numbers in New Jersey four years ago:


RCP Average 9/3-9/19 Bush 45.3 vs. Kerry 45.3
Tie

RCP Average 9/4-9/14 Obama 48.4 vs McCain 42.6 Obama +5.8

Question:

Isn't Obama in fact doing better than Kerry back in 2004? Let me check...Bush and Kerry were tied; however, Obama is up by 5.8%. What do you think guys?

About those claims that this was such a "Democratic year": Well, guys..I will pull some numbers regarding Generic Congressional ballot.

According to Real Clear Politics:

Rasmussen 09/08 - 09/14 Democrats +6
Newsweek 09/10 - 09/11 Democrats +8
Democracy Corps (D) 09/ Democrats +5
Battleground 09/07 - 09/11 Democrats +8
Associated Press/GfK 09/05 -09/10 Democrats +5
CNN/OpinionResearch 09/05 - 09/07 Democrats +3
USA Today/Gallup 09/05 - 09/07 Republicans +5
Hotline/FD 3-Day Tracking Democrats +5

Have those numbers changed?

Let me see who things were back in July:

AP-Ipsos 07/31 - 08/04 53 35 Democrats +18
Rasmussen 07/28 - 08/03 46 36 Democrats +10
NBC News/Wall St.Jrnl 07/18-07/21Democrats +13
Democracy Corps (D) 07/21 - 07/24 Democrats +8
Rasmussen 07/14 - 07/20 Democrats +13
Rasmussen 07/07 - 07/13 Democrats +10

In July all pollsters had Democratic generic ballot ahead by double digits; however, now in September is down to single digits, mid-single digits indeed.

*Remember, average Americans, not pundits, decide whether this is an X or Y year. We can all agree that maybe some people have an issue with Obama; however, the decline in Generic Democratic ballot speaks volume about the mood of average Americans towards the Republican and Democratic parties, beyond Obama or McCain.

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