10/16-19/08; 1,184 LV, 2.9
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 59, McCain 36
Sen: Lautenberg (D-i) 55, Zimmer (R) 33
OOOOOOOH. Must be the McShame surge I've been hearing about.
Posted on October 21, 2008 10:22 AM
joethetard/boomshat/kipcrap/boscrap & other repub trolls-
Posted on October 21, 2008 10:30 AM
Just an idle thought, but if I am not mistaken NJ has been polling closer than this in recent cycles, and Kerry only won it 53-46. Of course a win is a win in a given state with the electoral college system, but with numbers like this in NJ it doesn't surprise me McCain is struggling in PA (with Southeast PA somewhat resembling NJ).
Posted on October 21, 2008 10:33 AM
Remember when people were talking about McCain potentially putting NJ in play? Wasn't that long ago. Unless McCain's campaign is seeing something in PA that no other pollster is seeing, he's losing - pretty significantly - all of those blue states he was supposed to put in play. At the same time, Obama has a bunch of red states in play, with a new poll showing him ahead by 2 in Indiana.
Posted on October 21, 2008 10:49 AM
In the internals: 20% of Bush voters voting for Obama. Huge favorables for Obama and Biden, huge unfavorables for Mccain and Palin.
Posted on October 21, 2008 11:06 AM
There are three hotly contested House races in New Jersey -- the 3rd, 5th, and 7th Districts. Impossible to imagine how the two closest ones (3 and 7, which are rather swingy districts) could tip toward the Republican with this kind of a state-wide margin.
Posted on October 21, 2008 11:07 AM
NJ was never a state McCain had to have. This is about as useful as polling Wyoming or Oklahoma (hello, SUSA!). However, I bet the margin will be much less come election day.
Posted on October 21, 2008 11:25 AM
these margins are way off. obama aint winning nj by 23 points. let us not forget, up until 20 years ago, this was a pretty reliable red state and in '04 kerry only carried it by 6 points. quinnipiac always seems to poll "left" and i think this poll is pretty solid proof of that.
Posted on October 21, 2008 11:28 AM
So here is the polling from NJ back in 2004:
As I recalled, it was much closer. With respect to Quinnipiac in particular, around this same time in October they had Kerry +4, and then tied just a little later in October, with a final number of Kerry +5.
Posted on October 21, 2008 11:34 AM
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