Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

NM: 2010 Gov (Rasmussen 6/3)

Topics: New Mexico , poll

Rasmussen
6/3/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

New Mexico

2010 Governor
44% Martinez (R), 42% Denish (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Susana Martinez: 55 / 34
Diane Denish: 51 / 41

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 52 / 48
Gov. Richardson: 43 / 57

 

Comments
iVote:

How does Denish slip -3 points while at the same time Obama surges +6 in one week?

____________________

tjampel:

The primary was held in the interim too. Martinez is seeing her bump as Repubs consolidate.

Expect the race to be tight but Denish will probably win by a couple of points.

____________________

Aaron_in_TX:

What's huge is the 52% approval for Obama. Considerably higher than other swing states. This indicates hispanic support for Obama is still strong.

____________________

CHRIS MERKEY:

The funniest thing I have heard in a while regarding politics. Sean Hannity suggested Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachmann to run for President together on the Republican ticket. I mean, is he trying to sabotage the Republicans? I guess Fox News probably gets better ratings when a Dem is in office so the Reps can all watch them complain about them nonstop.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

Lets see if Martinez can have a concrete immigration plan. Her Latino heritage may benefit her as long as she doesn't turn on her own people and remove citizenship of children of illegal aliens.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

This shift isn't surprising. Psychologically, many people don't realize which party is which. Many Latinos heard the name "Martinez" and leaned towards her for that reason. Others might have thought Denish was the Republican and Martinez was the Democrat, since the GOP is pretty much not the least bit concerned at their losing hispanic voters in droves.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

This shift isn't surprising. Psychologically, many people don't realize which party is which. Many Latinos heard the name "Martinez" and leaned towards her for that reason. Others might have thought Denish was the Republican and Martinez was the Democrat, since the GOP is pretty much not the least bit concerned at their losing hispanic voters in droves.

____________________

melvin:

This race is going to be all about Immigration reform,but am just curious to know where the Republican nominee stands on the issue.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

I still believe that the misleading butterfly ballots in Florida are so damn confusing to many English speakers; I can only imagine how confusing it was to Latinos and those who English isn't a first language. I remember there were some Hispanic districts near Miami that the voters accidently voted for Pat Buchanon. Pat once said that they probably did vote for him, but obviously they didn't intend to vote for him. Perhaps George W wouldn't have been president if it was for normal style ballots.

____________________

tjampel:

@Farleftandproud:

Lets see if Martinez can have a concrete immigration plan. Her Latino heritage may benefit her as long as she doesn't turn on her own people and remove citizenship of children of illegal aliens.

So she's going to have her state legislature revoke the US Constitution? The language of this document supposedly revered by the Palins, Pauls, and Tea Party folks is straightforward and unambiguous about this. Even Connie Mack recently got into the act and smacked down those who called for such a bill.

I challenge any conservative on this site to debate me as to whether a State can pass a bill revoking US citizenship, in direct contravention of the US Constitution. Not only can't a state do it; the Federal Government can't do it either, without a Constitutional amendment. Good luck on that.

The upshot of this whole movement to strip citizenship from innocent babies (and, at the same time defend that baby's rights before it's born) is that it underscores the contempt that some people, who clamor for "strict constructionist" Federal judges and carry around copies of US Constitution (when they're not mistaking it for the Declaration of Independence) have for the document which they demand that we interpret literally.

____________________

tjampel:


Any prediction on this race for Nov? Will Hispanics vote for one of their own, if she's a Republican? Or will they vote strictly on issues and values? I think the latter scenario will be borne out here.

An instructive item regarding minorities allegedly voting for their own:

In the AL primary, Artur Davis, who moved to the right for this race, and, for example, voted against Health Care, got mauled by blacks in his own district (he lost two to one in some counties that are 60% or higher black) and either lost them overall or just broke even with blacks throughout the state. Strange race, where the black guy was taken out by a white dude to his left.

____________________

jmartin4s:

My prediction for this race is Nov is that Denish is a narrow favorite to win. However, I feel that in order to be more confident on this one I need to see more polling and get a direction of where its going in order to make a firm call. Lets see where polling has this race a month or two from now and go from there.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

Obama has to do immigration reform this year or at least start on it so something can be signed late this year or early next year. It would help improve his approval with HIspanic voters and also would give the people a chance to see if the GOP will cooperate with the president or be the party of no on immigration reform, just like they were when Bush tried to do it.

Gallup had Obama's approval among hispanics at 53 last week. That is terrible but it at least shows that he can win them back if he plays his cards right.

____________________

Bigmike:

Regarding this poll, small sample and large MOE. Several points in a week may be meaningless.

Since NM is a border state, sure immigration will be a big issue. But will it be the biggest? I am sure that NM has jobs on its mind too, like every other state. The April unemployment rate for the state was 8.7%. Not the largest number, but enough to be a concern to voters. 1 in 12 unemployed is a long way from acceptable.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

Democrats need to pass a comprehensive immigration bill, and if they can't get 60 votes, they should handle it like health care and get something passed through reconciliation. An Amnesty program for those residing here, and a crackdown at the border would be a good reform package, but the two parties are wasting time bickering and getting nothing accomplished on this issue. It is time to pass something soon.

____________________

GoTo123:

Martinez has said that she is against amnesty for illegals, opposes giving illegals driver licenses, and would like an immigration law similar to Arizona's in New Mexico. These positions are going to be very detrimental in a state like New Mexico that has a high Hispanic population. I predict that Denish will win this race, and it may end up being by double digits. Unfortunately, it is impossible to see the specifics of this poll, but it would not surprise me at all if Hispanics are being extremely underrepresented in this poll.

____________________

Field Marshal:

Many on the boards have stated that it is the GOP that has been turning a blind eye to illegal immigration because they are beholden to business and cheap labor. AZ immigration law gives the state the right to suspend business licenses if they hire illegals. Now, the Obama administration is challenging that statute. In Colorado, the democrats did the same thing.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/06/03/justice-dept-challenges-arizona-immigration-law-targeting-employers/?test=latestnews

____________________

Farleftandproud:

I doubt Martinez will win if her stand on illegals is as tough as it is. She may get about as much of the hispanic vote as Clarence Thomas gets approval from the African American community. That is if she has a tough immigration policy like Brewer in Arizona.

Obama needs to act fast on immigration or paving the way for it. Obama's approval among hispanics was 53 percent last week which is troubling.

Schumer has to stop the liberal nonsense of "civil partnerships" in relation to immigration reform. This isn't the time to be a activist. The Latino voters demand answers now, and even though they are not going to likely vote strongly for Republicans this november, they may just not vote at all, if things don't change soon.

____________________

Field Marshal:

Farleft,

What poll had Obama at 53% of hispanics?

____________________

StatyPolly:

SUSA polled this a couple of weeks ago:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b843684b-4dff-4d4b-91c0-c096addfce84

Actually had Martinez up by 6%. Better than Rass.

She also got 42% of Hispanic support. And this was a large sample of 1400 LV and 30% of those Hispanics.

____________________

iVote:

Farleftandproud-

If the Democrats pass any kind of immigration reform involving Amnesty for illegals, it will be a disaster. Their approval among Hispanics may rise, but will plummet significantly among most everyone else. The Arizona law is popular across the board for a reason. It really doesn't matter if Obama/Democratic approval is 100% among Hispanics if everyone else is pissed off about it.

____________________

StatyPolly:

Exactly, iVote!

Check this out:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/28/us/28mass.html

Uber lib Mass Senate passes a tough anti-illegal bill. It actually has more teeth than AZ bill. And a few other left leaning states are mulling similar bills over. BO is on the wrong side of this one too. It's hurting him. Amnesty is not even very popular among legal Hispanic immigrants and citizens.

____________________

tjampel:

StatyPolly: Amnesty is not even very popular among legal Hispanic immigrants and citizens.

Where's your proof for this statement? The last poll I recall on this subject, the Roper/AP May 13th one, showed (I'm pretty sure, correct me if I'm wrong) over 70% support among Hispanics for a path to citizenship. Is that "not very popular". Is there a more recent trustworthy survey I haven't seen?

Also, Obama is almost certainly on the wrong side of the "papers please" issue from a public opinion standpoint. Does this mean that the job of a US President is to follow the dictates of public opinion for all domestic and foreign issues? If, for example, these bills are Constitutionally defective will you fault our Constitution because it's "out of step with mainstream America"? Do you fault a President who wishes to void state laws on Constitutional grounds, irrespective of public opinion?

Same on the issue of revoking citizenship for some babies born on US soil. I'd say that more than 50% of US citizens support stripping newborn Americans of their citizenship if their parents are illegals. Or, do you claim there's a different reading of the Constitution on this....maybe...babies of illegals are criminal by association...so..they may be considered as part of a criminal enterprise?

____________________

StatyPolly:

50% support among legal Hispanics, is the number I've seen mentioned by pundits numerously over the past few years, TJ.

BTW, that 70% support poll you mention did not specify their legal status. Perhaps as many as 35-40% of all Hispanics in US are illegal and I am sure close to 100% of those support amnesty. Not to mention that "amnesty" vs. "path to citizenship" will yield different poll results. What exactly would that "path" be makes all the difference to most people, including me.

And I agree with you that a President should not rule by public opinion and do what he/she thinks is in the best interest of the nation. In particular, the best interests of citizens and legal residents of the country. I was only referring to BO being on the wrong side of this as a political point. As in "it hurts Dems this election cycle."

The question of anchor babies is a separate issue altogether. As far as I know, it was Rand Paul that brought it up recently, and I have not given it much thought yet. But I don't think anyone advocated revoking citizenship. Just not granting it going forward. It may take a Constitutional Amendment to accomplish that, I am not sure.

____________________

tjampel:

Why would it not take a constitutional amendment. This is where I have difficulty understanding conservatives. I thought this was an area where there is absolutely no disagreement as to what the letter and meaning of the US Constitution is. You say "may"; by what scenario would there NOT have to be one? Why not state the obvious (you're obviously intelligent and have ready this document)?

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR