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NM: 45% Martinez, 39% Denish (Albuquerque Journal 8/23-27)

Topics: New Mexico , poll

Research and Polling Inc for the Albuquerque Journal
8/23-27/10; 942 likely voters, 3% margin of error
402 likely 1st district voters, 5% margin of error
404 likely 2nd district voters, 5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Albuquerque Journal: Governor, District 1, District 2)

New Mexico

2010 Governor
45% Martinez (R), 39% Denish (D) (chart)

2010 Congress: District 1
47% Heinrich (D), 41% Barela (R)

2010 Congress: District 2
45% Teague (D), 42% Pearce (R)

 

Comments
JMSTiger:

Those numbers for governor are obviously good for the GOP, but the 2nd District numbers are somewhat disappointing. If the GOP is going to win the House, they need to win districts like NM-02. Of course, an incumbent polling at 45% is not good for that candidate either.

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schakj:

Wow, I have NM-2 as the 64th most vulnerable Democratic seat (I have CD 1 as noncompetitive). The Democrats are in real trouble.

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Farleftandproud:

I predict that this has nothing to do with trends in NM. I predict that neither house seat will go to the GOP in NM, and I say that because Martinez is a fairly moderate candidate, or at least she comes across that way. She may break even with Hispanics just like the candidate against Rory Reid in NV will do well, but I think in other races Hispanics will go overwhelmingly for Democrats. I bet Gov Brewer won't win by 16 points. I bet she'll win by less than 10. Hispanics will know the difference between the Meg Whitman's and Martinez's and the John Kyl's and Gov. Brewer's of the world.

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Farleftandproud:

Besides Rasmussen had Obama's approval at 57 percent in NM, which would surprise me if there will be a trend against Democrats.

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Anthony Gonzalez:

I think New Mexico should probably go from Tossup to Leans Republican at this point. I doubt the numbers get worse for Martinez and I doubt Denish (who already has wide name recognition) suddenly gains a ton of momentum. Hispanics will go with Martinez, Republicans will go with Martinez as will independents. Another gain for the R's

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Aaron_in_TX:

FINALLY some house district polls!

I don't know why nobody's talking about this...

RCP lists NM-1 as toss-up. According to this it's lean Dem. RCP lists NM-2 as leans GOP. According to this it's a toss-up, maybe even tilt dem. I don't know if this is a partisan poll, but since the gov race looks in line with other pollsters I wouldn't assume so.

NM-2 is one that should be in the freaking bag for republicans. An r+6 district, represented by a republican since 1980, until 2008. Pearce is the former republican representative from the district who held it from 2002-2008. He won 60% of the vote in 02,04, and 06 and he's not leading this. From the narrative republicans are building, all of those dem voters should be leaving the party in droves.

If republicans want to make big gains, they HAVE to win races like NM-2.

NM-1 is a swing district held by republican Heather Wilson until 2008. It appears Martin Heinrich is in good position to get re-elected.

Now New Mexico may be somewhat of an outlier state, since Rasmussen showed Obama approval there at 57%, considerably higher than average. Still, from a republican standpoint this has to be a little disconcerting.

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