9/29-30/08; 698 LV, 3.8%
Obama 52, McCain 44
Sen: Udall (D-i) 58, Pearce (R) 39
Wonderful. We needed more NM polls to offset that Ras poll that put McCain ahead.
Posted on October 2, 2008 9:52 AM
NM is blue and barring any catastrophy will be blue on Nov 4.
Posted on October 2, 2008 9:59 AM
Again this is in line and confirms the National polling lead.
Look to the next Colorado polls at between + 5+%! The Rasmussen on Monday at +1% was a surprise, maybe that's weekend polling!
Posted on October 2, 2008 10:03 AM
Anyone else notice how few states are colored light red on the main map? McCain is just holding on to the truest Republican states.
Yeah, I was noticing that myself yesterday. If WV goes back to yellow, there won't be any pink states left!
Posted on October 2, 2008 10:05 AM
Anyone know why WV hasnt gone to at least yellow? I thought it was somewhat of a swing state and it makes no sense that its completely bucking the trend. Anyone have any thoughts?
Posted on October 2, 2008 10:08 AM
Perhaps they will offset it themselves, they should release a NM poll later today.
Pollster.com: Why so many yellow states still??
Posted on October 2, 2008 10:15 AM
In 2012, the Republican nominee's campaign will be talking about needing to win McCain states plus ...
The same way we talk about winning Kerry states plus a couple more.
Posted on October 2, 2008 10:19 AM
Theoretically, i understand your point on WV. But if you go to WV and spend a few days, you'll understand why WV is staying light red. Ever heard odf the Bradley effect ? Sorry but that's the way it is. Things change very slowly in some places.
Posted on October 2, 2008 10:23 AM
I'd rather that 2012 be about the Dems talking about adding WV, GA, TX, MT, and ND to the Obama states. :-)
Posted on October 2, 2008 10:25 AM
glober is right. No way WV goes blue, unless it's suddenly 1964 again. No chance. However NM is another one of these states the McCain campaign somehow thought they would pull. Not gonna happen.
Posted on October 2, 2008 10:26 AM
McSame has never lead in one single New Mexico poll in this entire political season. Poor McSame :-)!!!
Think about it, NM and IA in the bag for Obama, two Bush's states. Today I was looking at Rasmussen toss-up states. Except for NH, all the states, 10 of them, in the toss-up category come from Bush/McCain's column. Obama has been fantastic at putting away Kerry's states.
Posted on October 2, 2008 10:30 AM
I think in the State polls the earlier polls (before the debates and financial collapse) are constraining the impact of the last few weeks on the charts. This is the obvious result of many states simply not having polling coverage. I don't know how many polls Mark uses in his mix...but if the States are rarely surveyed the old polls will have a big impact. Maybe he might want to consider a "weighting" process for such rarely sampled States to show the effects of recent trends/events.
Similarly, he might want to consider reducing the weight of some of the more frequent pollsters. Their methodologies might bias measures vs. other pollsters simply because they "pump" the sample up in the poll-of-polls.
Posted on October 2, 2008 3:40 PM
Adjusted for 2004 demographics from exit poll:
Based on gender: Obama +9
Based on party ID: Obama +5
Based on race: Obama +10
Based on ideology: Obama +6
Posted on October 2, 2008 6:21 PM
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