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NV: 2010 Rep Primaries (Suffolk 6/1-2)

Topics: Governor , nevada , senate

Suffolk University
6/1-2/10; 400 likely Republican primary voters, 4.9% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Suffolk: marginals, crosstabs)

Nevada

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
32% Angle, 25% Tarkanian, 24% Lowden (chart)

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
47% Sandoval, 25% Gibbons

 

Comments
Paleo:

All three are within the margin of error, so it's still anyone's race.

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Farleftandproud:

Wow. That is what you get for being the "chicken lady". Angle has strange ideas too. She may be the Rand Paul of NV. Reid truly has a shot at this one since Nevada has put inexperienced tea partiers to run against a 3 term senator.

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Xenobion:

This has probably been the most hilarious races to watch in the past couple months. I eagerly await Ried to play with one of the buffoons that graduate from clown college Tuesday.

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LordMike:

Well, this is what Reid wanted... He's been wanting to face Angle. I still think that Lowden would have been a better opponent since she is so gaffe prone, but she has more money and better favorables.

Greg Sergeant has posted that an upcoming R2000 poll confirms this one. Not a surprise, since the club for growth started backing Angle. When CFG is on your side in a GOP primary, you generally end up winning.

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Bob in SJ:

I'm amazed that Gibbons is getting 25%.

Tarkanian is porbably the best that Republicans can hope for. Lowden's a fool with some campaign finance problems, and Angle's a full on loon - she barely tolerates legal beer!

And Reid has piles and piles of money.

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CHRIS MERKEY:

Looks like the Reps lose another one due to an unelectable candidate. Who needs the DNC when you have the tea party and CLub for Growth?

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tjampel:

Angle is vulnerable, and rightly so, for her possible ties to Scientology. I'll not express my personal opinion of Scientology other than to say...it's not a legitimate religion IMHO

First with reference to a treatment approach for prison inmates advocated by Church of Scientology

From The Hill:

"...Angle did attempt to organize a legislative trip to see the inmate treatment program at a Mexican jail. She made the proposal after visiting the facility with a former corrections department director. The legislative trip would have been arranged and paid for by a member of the Church of Scientology, and critics say the program is modeled on the faith’s teachings.

Angle lobbied Gov. Kenny Guinn to support the program, Guinn confirmed Monday."

Then with regard to another controversial initiative associated with Scientology---their crusade against the use of psychotropic medication for basically anyone, especially kids:

"Though Angle has had to defend her position on the prison program, her role in the federal legislation on psychotropic drugs has not previously been reported in the media.

Not that Angle was trying to hide that role, at least before she entered the national spotlight. As recently as March, one entry in a list of accomplishments on her website read: “Kelly Preston (Mrs. John Travolta), Jenna Elfman (Dharma and Greg Sit Com) and Robin Read (Director of NFWL) accompanied Sharron Angle to Senator Ensign’s” office, according to online search archives.

In a March interview with the Las Vegas Sun, Angle volunteered that she and Preston had visited Ensign about the legislation on psychotropic drugs."

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melvin:

The Gop is getting overtaken by the far-right I cant see how the Gop can win anything,but America is so full of hate today i wont be suprise if the Gop win this race in NV.

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Juan Chin:

Angle has a seven point lead over her closest opponent. Therefore, she is well BEYOND THE MARGIN OF ERROR!!!
If there was any Republican Harry Reid would love to face it is Angle. This is way toooooo funny. I bet McConnell and Cornyn are crapping their pants as this is being typed.

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pion:

Well, well. Between, Fiorina, Paul and Angle, things are looking up for Dems. If things go the way it's starting to look with this sterling cast, I suspect a lot of soul searching by the GOP the day after the election, more than in '08; it could be the onset of a full on GOP civil war. I can already hear Rush calling everyone 'retards' and Palin's scintillating commentary on Fox about how the Democratic party is actually the biggest recipient of Tea Party money.

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pion:

tj: "I'll not express my personal opinion of Scientology other than to say...it's not a legitimate religion IMHO"

You're wrong. It's a typical religion with different stories and rites.

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Wong:

Pion,

You forgot to mention Kirk.

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pion:

Wong, they're coming out of the woodwork...

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Field Marshal:

Tarkanian is porbably the best that Republicans can hope for. Lowden's a fool with some campaign finance problems, and Angle's a full on loon - she barely tolerates legal beer!

And what do you consider Reid, a rational, middle-of-the-road candidate? LOL.

Reid will go down no matter who he faces. This election is not about the rep candidate, its about the failure that is Reid as majority leader and senator.

Why do those on the left bemoan and taunt the right that they are choosing far-right candidates to run for office when the left only runs extreme far-left candidates to run. From the president to the speaker to most other senators. In Nov, the GOP will have more moderate senators in congress than the Dems. Can you say hyprocrisy?

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Bob in SJ:

@FM

Sure, I got problems with Reid, but in my book he's far better than any Replublican alternative.

I want the Republicans to choose insane right-wing candidates like Angle. Makes it easier to beat them.

A few months ago, I would've written of Reid, but he's getting stronger as times passes, and, as I said above, he's got gobs of cash to burn.

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Uchenna Oguekwe:

What is very interesting about the NV race is that polls are now indicating that Reid, who most thought was politically dead, is now only running 3-4 points behind Lowden and Angle and 2 points ahead of Tarkanian. The tea party will help decided elections this year but I am not too sure which party they will hurt.

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Stillow:

I hate to break up this liberal love fest, but you guys just don't get it do you? This race is not about the GOP, its about Reid. reid cannot break 45 percent. He will lose by more than 5 points to whoever the republican is.

You lefties keep bashing all these rpublicans in variosu races, yet in each one you lefties are going to get your butt kicked, save one in CA, but Boxer will have to spend a crap laod of cash to keep her seat.

I'm not sure what universe you lefties live in, but all this feel good fuzzy talk you are saying to eachother won't help you on election day....your going to get killed....I know it...and deep down you know it.

Keep up the love fest if it makes you "feel" better....it makes for good comedy, but not much more.

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Bob in SJ:

@ Stillow,

Oddly enough, I trust your Nevada analysis to some extent - do you think that "None of the above" will get any pull?

Anyway, I predict that Dems keep the house and Senate with slim majorites, and maybe a Crist.

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Stillow:

Bob in SJ - Whoever the republican is will get above 50. The governors race with Sandoval against roray Reid will also help the GOP in the senate race. sandoval will crush Reid by probably 10 or more points. Also not in this poll, but I wish was is NV-03 where titus is going to lose that race.

reid has a numbers problem. There is about 55 percent of the state who absolutely will not vote for him again. That locks him in at 45 percent of the vote maximum that he can get. Unless a viable 3rd party candidate pops up and can get 5 points or more, whoever the republican nominee is will win this race with 50 percent of the vote. and as lousy as Gibbons has done as governor, Sandoval will win easily the governor race and hold it for the GOP.

Its simply anti reid stuff here in NV, both hairy and rory.

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LordMike:

Well, Stillow, a new poll is out showing Reid winning against all three potential opponents. It should show up here momentarily.

Don't count your chickens, yet, Stillow! You'll need them for your next doctors appointment!

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Stillow:

As far as predictions go...I think its all but certian the GOP will take back the House....and probably fall one or two votes shy of taking back the Senate.

Keep your eyes on senators like B. Nelson who hurt themselves badly with HCR, he may make moves after this cycle to save himself in 2012.

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Stillow:

LordMike - Won't matter. I know this stat. 45 on election day is the best Reid can hope to do. Take it to the bank...and yes, my gaurantee is FDIC insured.

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JMSTiger:

@ LordMike-

Let me guess. It is one of those incredibly accurate DailyKos polls?

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Xenobion:

You think this race is about Reid as Majority Leader of the Senate? lol. This race is about gaffes, chickencare, and other ridiculous distractions. Lowden's fall from grace is proof of that. CFG is the kiss of death and Reid got the opponent he wanted... Angle.

I think Reid is now sporting underdog status while watching a huge group of Republicans beat each other up. Look at Blanche Lincoln, she couldn't pull this off and she'll most likely lose this Nov. Reid took advantage of a field of political novices to get a far right Club For Growth candidate in without any money for the Senate race.

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Farleftandproud:

Stillow: If you think that Harry Reid can be beaten by these idiots you are mistaken. If you can find a credible candidate to challenge him than maybe I'll say you are right.

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Farleftandproud:

Reid has been misclassified as a liberal when in fact he is fairly conservative on issues like abortion yet he is strong on human rights issues and doesn't waver on things he is committed to like tackling an atrocious health care system.

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Field Marshal:

At best Reid has a mixed record on abortion.

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tjampel:

@pion:

tj: 'I'll not express my personal opinion of Scientology other than to say...it's not a legitimate religion IMHO'

"You're wrong. It's a typical religion with different stories and rites."

The story is less than 60 years old. The purpose of the story, whatever it may have been initially, became a very good way to rake in the dough, as Ron's yacht crew and personal staff could attest. The definition of religion in Wikipedia (feel free to trot out Oxford, etc.); I'm lazy:

"Religion is the belief in and worship of a god or gods, or any such system of belief and worship,[1] usually involving devotional and ritual observances, and often containing a moral code governing the conduct of human affairs."

The alleged system of belief and worship in Scientology revolves around something that Hubbard dreamed up in the early 50s. It revolves around some amphetamine-laced "auditing" sessions he held...kind of free association pyschoanalytic psychobabble.

Hubbard wrote his History of Scientology, based on these sessions. In it he claimed, among other things, to remember various past lives including one as a clam. This book has been ridiculed and attacked for it's obvious divergence from all accepted scientific theory. For example it claims that evolution has largely ended....for no apparent reason, and...falsely; it claims the universe is 60 trilion years old. As you must know this is a good 4000 times greater than the best estimates. It's theory of human development from clam through "Piltdown Man" (later revealed as a hoax, correct?) is nothing short of laughable. The people around the Buddha or Christ's time had excuses if their cosmology was way off. What excuse does Hubbard have? He wrote Sci-Fi and got it oh so wrong.

The core beliefs of Scientology state that we're not really humans from earth. We're immortal aliens trapped in a human body. We need to return to the status of "operating Thetan (that's the type of alien we really are). This is accomplished through various trainings wherein one progresses from pre-clear to clear to the ultimate goal. Upon reaching "operating thetan" status one achieves "knowing and willing cause over life, thought, matter, energy, space and time (MEST)", according to L R Hubbard.

Students of scientology don't worship a higher deity, don't have any special moral code, and don't have rituals or devotional services. They o dhave very expensive courses, though, for every step of the process from pre-clear up to OT (Operating Thetan). Furthermore, they don't make the wisdom contained in those courses or training materials available to those who can't pay these exorbitant prices. This differs from all other mainstream religions, which practically shove the stuff in your hands. So, no matter what excuse they may give, it looks a lot to me like a racket.

I'd love to hear contrary views about this "religion".

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