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NV: 2010 Sen Primary (NNB 4/22)

Topics: Nevada , poll

Nevada News Bureau / PMI, Inc.
4/22/10; 2,675 likely Republcian primary voters, 5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Nevada News Bureau release)

Nevada

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
41% Lowden, 24% Tarkanian, 17% Angle (chart)

 

Comments
rdw4potus:

How could PMI have possibly conducted a telephone poll of 2,675 Likely Republican Primary voters in one day? I don't even disagree with the "result," I just wonder if it's possible for this to be a real poll.

There are 2.6 Million people in NV. Let's say 2/3 of them are registered voters, that's 1.73 Million people. Of those people, approximately 40% are Republicans. That's 700,000. Of those, approximately 30% will vote in a primary election. That's 210,000. Typical response rates for a telephone poll are about 8% (which is why they usually take 3-5 days to get ~1000 responses), so to get these 2,675 responses, PMI should have had to call 33,500 people. So, PMI managed to call 16% of all of the likely voters in the Republican primary in all of Nevada, and they did it in 1 day?

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Field Marshal:

Possibly because its a one question poll.

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rdw4potus:

OK, it's a one question poll. Do YOU usually wait to find that out before YOU hang up the phone? Especially on an IVR poll. If it's not even a real person, I'm not listening long enough to find out how long it is...

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StatyPolly:

Hmmm.. Wouldn't they have to ask more than ONE question just to determine who is LIKELY to vote.

It is a little suspect..

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kevin626:

The chicken-for-healthcare Senator. Is that what you want Nevada?

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

kevin626:
The chicken-for-healthcare Senator. Is that what you want Nevada?

===

Probably. Nevadans seem to see it as more preferable to Reid's bill of forcing people to buy from health insurance companies and escalating the cost of healthcare by several hundred billion dollars.

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Ryan:

In the poll release, it has the wording, and it begins with "This is a one question...", so they would know up front.

I would also assume that they already had a database of likely republican voters, but if so, they didn't make that at all clear in the release.

I wonder if the # of responses was a typo though. It's odd that the margin of error is 5% with that N.

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rdw4potus:

That's really odd. Usually, respondents have to self-identify as being "likely voters" to meet the standards for an LV poll. Otherwise, PMI would only have lists of donors and activists to use for reference, and some of them might be unlikely voters. They'd also stand to miss oodles of likely primary voters that were too poor/busy/moderate to be on any campaign's list of supporters.

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jmartin4s:

Lowden will win this primary and she will win it by a lot. The minute people heard Tarkanian speak they realized he is a bumbling fool who even Harry Reid could beat. Tarkanian has lost every election he has ever run in, some of which have been practically handed to him. I don't think he will break the losing streak in this primary.

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Farleftandproud:

I don't know Tarkanian very well, but the GOP may have 2nd thoughts about nominating such a volatile woman as Lowden. That chicken comment, about people bartering and getting health care in exchange for food is ridiculous. Even from the conservative point of view, she could have complained about the costs or the deficit, but that was total psyhco talk.

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jmartin4s:

I've been studying this race and here's my findings. I think that realistically Sue Lowden's chicken coop comment has been over blown a lot by the far left and Markos on Dailykos. If she had made a comment like the curling iron one by Scott Brown then it would be different but if people thinks that this makes her a bad candidate they are wrong. Lets start with Tarkanian. He has lost every election he has ever run in and every time Nevada republicans even hear him talk on tv his polling continue to evaporate. He is a joke of a person in general. Sue Lowden is being heavily under estimated on the other hand. She is a lot sharper, intelligent, and far more charismatic than people think. In 1992, she won a state senate seat in heavily liberal Las Vegas which is quite an astounding accomplishment despite the fact that she lost re-election 4 years later. To put this into perspective, that would be like a republican winning Mike Capuano's district in heavily democratic Boston with Clinton on the ballot. Not to mention that this woman has a 50,000,000 she intends to spend in order to get this senate seat. Lowden will probably win the primary with around a 47% to 28% margin over Tarkanian. It would be quite a mistake to underestimate Sue Lowden.

I do not lump her into the 6 crazy clown darlings of the republican party who are Scott Brown, Jane Norton, Roy Blunt, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and Pat Toomey.

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Cyril Washbrook:

There has to be a mistake in there somewhere. A survey with a sample size of 2,675 ought to have a margin of error of +/- 1.76 points, not +/- 5 points (which would suggest a sample size of around 380). What's going on?

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Emily Swanson:

Looks like we have a few questions about the sample size and MOE -- for what it's worth, we emailed the pollster and Nevada News Bureau before posting, and they assured us that the sample size is not a typo. I have no idea why they would want to report such a large margin of error. NNB's editor explained to me that "The high MOE is because it IS a robo-poll, so they adjust." As you're probably aware, this is not standard practice for IVR pollsters, but we're not going to complain too much because they overestimated their margin of error.

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CHRIS MERKEY:

It seems like the Republicans could run anybody and Reid would lose. I think her comment hurts her a little but not a heck of a lot. Reid could make some nasty attack ads regarding this. not sure they would work in Nevada. I am not too happy about the ads that Specter is running against Sestak here in PA. was going to vote for Specter but his ads might have changed my mind to vote for Sestak. I saw ads for Anthony Williams for governor and they were very positive about things he would do to help PA create jobs, etc. Thought it was a good ad. Not sure if he has a chance but his ads were great. Actually Onorato's ads were also good. Talking about his accomplishments in Pittsburgh and not bashing the other candidates. Maybe Specter could learn something from these two.

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