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NV: 44% Reid, 37% Angle (LVRJ 7/12-14)

Topics: Nevada , poll

Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review Jourbal
7/12-14/10; 625 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(LVRJ release)

Nevada

2010 Senate
44% Reid (D), 37% Angle (R) (chart)

 

Comments
lat:

I am waiting for Stillow to spin this...

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obamalover:

I think this is the first time Reid has been polled this far ahead. Angle doesn't have a prayer. Voters have an impression of Angle now, and it isn't a good one.

The Nevada Republican Party screwed the pooch on this one. Reid was dead man walking, but luckily the Nevada Republican party got teabagged. LOL!

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Farleftandproud:

As Simon Cowell on AMerican Idol likes to say to a singer who screws up....."Sharron, time to pack your bags".

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lat:

OL and FLAP,

Wrong! It's that kind of thinking that got Scott Brown elected. The bottom line is that Harry Reid is still very unpopular and this race aint over by a long shot. Yes, Sharron Angle is a complete and utter lunatic, but stranger things have happened. Harry Reid needs to be relentless with his strategy and cannot give an inch.

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Field Marshal:

Reid still polling in the low 40's. Also, there are still 19% undecided with 70% of the GOP voting for Angle and 80% of Dems going for Reid. Given registration levels in Nevada are close to even and looking at the crosstabs of the poll, i would say that Reid is fairly close to his ceiling while Anglehas more upside. Especially given the trashing, as per standard liberal doctrine, in the press.

The poll oversampled the third district- i assume to poll that congressional race. Was that over-sample included in the state senate race?

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Farleftandproud:

Scott Brown is a respectable politician and seems to be a pretty good guy. Angle is a fanatic, and a nut case. I just don't think the people are ever stupid enough to elect someone who demeans women, demeans Christianity, and demeans civility. As unpopular as Harry Reid has been the past year, he'll be by far the lesser of the two evils.

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dpearl:

Reid pulling ahead amongst likely voters is an interesting development - though the race is still pretty close when you consider that the "Other" and "None of These" categories will probably break toward Angle. That is because those responses were chosen more by Republicans and Independents than by Democrats.

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tjampel:

Field Marshal:

"Reid still polling in the low 40's. Also, there are still 19% undecided with 70% of the GOP voting for Angle and 80% of Dems going for Reid. Given registration levels in Nevada are close to even and looking at the crosstabs of the poll, i would say that Reid is fairly close to his ceiling while Anglehas more upside. Especially given the trashing, as per standard liberal doctrine, in the press.

The poll oversampled the third district- i assume to poll that congressional race. Was that over-sample included in the state senate race?"

Re: oversampled...if Mason Dixon did what you're implying out of laziness, I guess, they deserve to be trashed for it and it's screwed up the whole poll

Reid's numbers are improved and Angle's are way down; her unfavorables are up 18% while Reid's are down 6%. She's less liked than Reid at this point, which is quite an accomplishment based on where she was right after the primary.

Reid is at 44%. That's not low 40s; its mid 40s, and there are 19% for other or undecided. If 15% of those vote for either Reid or Angle do you really think Angle will get more than 11% of them and Reid 4% or less?....given that Reid is, at this point viewed MORE favorably than Angle? Where's the logic in that one to say that Reid is close to his ceiling; based purely on who's viewed more unfavorably Angle's ceiling should be lower, no?

Of course I expect a tighter race than this and I think that this may be a favorable sample for Reid. I expect a race of 2-3 points with Reid and his money and org delivering on election day.

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JMSTiger:

Reid is going to be saved by the Republican primary voters of the state of Nevada. They decided to nominate a loon and fruitcake and the single weakest candidate out of the field to challenge Harry. What a mess.

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SC Guy:

Obamalover said: "I think this is the first time Reid has been polled this far ahead. Angle doesn't have a prayer. Voters have an impression of Angle now, and it isn't a good one."

Actually, the fact that Reid is polling well below 50% shows that he's still very vulnerable. True, Angle isn't nearly the best candidate to field but she's hardly DOA. Reid's son is likely to be blown away in the gubernatorial contest and that could also help Angle. She may well bring out the 'Tea Party' vote in droves. Time will tell.

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JMSTiger:

One other thing, Harry Reid is smart letting others do the attacking of Angle. Of course, he is also benefiting from just sitting back and letting Angle run her mouth, which does nothing but push her closer and closer to the edge of the cliff. I still can't believe that Nevada Republicans passed on Tarkanian and Lowden for this loon.

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Tal:

According to the release:

"This poll also includes an over-sampling 400 likely voters in the Third Congressional District. This over-sampling is of additional voters added to the statewide survey in order to increase the sample size within the district. These additional respondents were only asked the questions relative to the Third District race. The margin for error on these results is plus or minus 5%."

So, maybe not all 400 were included in the Reid/ Angle question. But, this would also reduce the sample size and increase MoE. Very unclear.

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Freddy:

Just keep on talking FarLeft....

Farleftandproud:
Olympia Snowe, Scott Brown is not. I think if the people had actually taken time to watch the debate and saw how poorly Scott Brown did, they wouldn't have to exactly be a liberal to see he is a weak candidate. The Truth about Scott Brown is coming out in some ads that he supports torture and is more to the right on that than John Mccain, as well as not allowing emergency contraception for rape victims. This guy, I have to wonder if he is even from Mass. He is far to the right of others like Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, George pataki.

Posted on January 12, 2010 6:55 PM

Farleftandproud:
Scott Brown is a respectable politician and seems to be a pretty good guy. Angle is a fanatic, and a nut case. I just don't think the people are ever stupid enough to elect someone who demeans women, demeans Christianity, and demeans civility. As unpopular as Harry Reid has been the past year, he'll be by far the lesser of the two evils.

Posted on July 16, 2010 9:59 AM

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Field Marshal:

tjample,

I was asking about the oversampling, not stating. Does anyone know?

The ceiling is reached for Reid, in my opinion, because the 19% undecided is 2-1 more Rep than Dem with Indie undecided almost 2-1 over Dem. I'm not saying all those indies will break for Angle, but i would venture to say that a majority will.

And the favorables at this point are all driven by a false media narrative on Angle. She has just started releasing ads, her latest a doozy on Reid. I think once she begins to create her own narrative and lay out her points, her favorables will rebound. She needs to make its all about Reid and what she would do, and would have done, differently.

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Field Marshal:

The money advantage also must be factored in. Reid has $9 mill in the bank and has ALREADY spent $10 million hammering Angle and touting his poor record.

Angle on the other hand has just $1.8 million. It will be hard for her to compete unless she starts raising serious cash soon.

Reid has already spent more than Angle will raise the whole race.

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JMSTiger:

@ Field Marshal

Even if Angle had $20 million in the bank, I don't think she could pull this out, even against someone as disliked in Nevada as Harry Reid. She continues to make a fool of herself when she opens her mouth. I want Reid out of there as much as the next conservative, but it's time to face facts. Nevada Republicans screwed the pooch when they voted for this loon. Lowden or Tarkanian would be 15% ahead right now if either had gotten the nomination.

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VermontWisdom:

Ol and Flap......

I know Scott Brown, Scott Brown is a friend of mine ( well not really). Sharon Angle is NO Scott Brown!

Scott Brown won in MA as a very articulate, intelligent, reasonable, left of Republican center candidate against without a doubt the worst Senatorial candidate in MA history, Martha Coakley. Just look at his vote on Financial Reform. Is that a vote Sharon "let's return to our caveman past" Angle would have cast? She is a complete whack job, and there is no way even the disgruntled voters of NV will support her.

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melvin:

Sharon Angle is a liberal hater nut.enough said

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Field Marshal:

JMS,

I disagree. The media would be calling any GOP candidate a "loon" in order to help Reid. Just look at the whole chicken paranoia repeated ad nauseum on this site when it if you actually read what she said, it was a completely sterile argument. The same, with some caveats, is true of Angle. Come September, when the campaign ramps up and the voters see that see isn't a loon at all and they hear her ideas rather than gotcha comments from a liberal media, she will be in the hunt for this seat, the Reid money advantage aside.

Tal,

That is the paragraph that i have questions about. Were those 400 "oversampled" respondents included in the state race totals?

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Freddy:

VermontWisdom, not saying she is anything like Scott Brown. Just pointing out talking points will always be just talking points and not positive contributions to technical discussion about polling.

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Emily Swanson:

Field Marshall, tjampel, Tal:

On the subject of oversampling: The oversample is NOT included in the overall toplines. I am assuming this is how Mason-Dixon did their calling, based on more general information about oversamples - they called 625 voters for their questions about the entire state. Once they reached this threshold, they presumably had only a small number of answers for their questions in the third district and therefore a very high margin of error. To decrease the margin of error for their questions in the third district, they called additional voters only in the third district until that subsample reached 400, and asked them the third-district-only questions and did not ask the topline questions. Mason-Dixon works from a list of registered voters, so it would be pretty easy for them to select a random subsample of only third district voters. Hope this makes sense, let me know if you have any questions.

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JMSTiger:

@ Field Marshal

I agree that the media is going to do anything they can to sink Angle, but she is helping them out by some of the stuff coming out of her mouth. I hope her new D.C. handlers get her to keep quiet for the next several months and come up with some clever TV and radio ads.

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lat:

FLAP, OL, JMS,

I am an ardent civil libertarian and social issues are what drives my voting patterns. Someone like Sharron Angle is just about as offensive and awful as they come for someone like me. With this said Harry Reid is still not popular and can still easily lose this. Angle is a complete and utter nut there is no question about it, but that guarantees nothing in this envirnoment. I have consistently said the dems are going to lose seats from the day Obama was elected (historical patterns bear that out). In the long term the GOP has major demographic issues, but I don't care what the economic picture looked 2010 just was not going to be pretty for dems and they cannot take anything for granted.

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Paleo:

Don't forget with third parties and "none of the above" on the ballot, it might take only 46% or 47% to win.

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melvin:

Sharon Angle is going to have to come on other media outlets besides Fox News,and once that happens Senator Reid lead is going to increase to double digits.The Democrats have got to define the Republican party as the party who is against Unemployment,Healthcare,the Minimum Wage,Social Security, and once the American public see where the Republican party stands on these issues,then the Democrats should have no problems come November.

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Field Marshal:

Thanks for clearing that up Emily.

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Field Marshal:

Melvin,

You remind me of Keith Olbermann- just a completely loony and phobia-prone individual with a lot of anger pent up.

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HoosierDaddy:

I have a feeling that the trending for this race will continue to favor Harry Reid. Sharon Angle can go on Fox News all she wants...but the truth of the matter is she's got some "out of this world" views.

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lat:

I am wondering if Jack Conway will start to see better #'s in KY? He seems like a fairly good candidate, but unlike NV which Obama won by double digits, he got shallacked in KY so someone like Rand Paul as crazy as he is will have more appeal.

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C'mon, Stillow, tell us how this poll is incorrect!

Also, wait until the Time magazine poll is reported here showing Obama beating Palin by 20 points!
Go ahead Republicans, I dare you to nominate her!

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melvin:

Field Marshal, Kieth Olbermann happens to be the best thing on cable news.Kieth Olbermann and Rachel are my Heroes,just like Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck are yours Field Marshal.

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StatyPolly:

There is a pretty good article linked to this poll in LVRJ. Worth the read.

http://www.lvrj.com/news/reid-takes-lead-on-angle-98587704.html

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Xenobion:

They probably overpolled Las Vegas on this one, one of the places Reid remains somewhat popular because of the recent ban on Yucca Mountain this last month or so. But if these numbers represent Las Vegas as a whole and not the rest of the state I still don't see how Angle could come back.

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melvin:

Its all on you Republicans'you wimps was the one who jumped up for joy last year when the Tea party movement got started,in now the Republican party is stuck with these right-wing screw balls.

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Xenobion:

Interesting to read that LVRJ article. Shoes a 17% decline in Washoe County (Reno) support for Angle. Where is she pulling her support from in the state? Rural voters in Elko?

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Field Marshal:

Field Marshal, Kieth Olbermann happens to be the best thing on cable news.Kieth Olbermann and Rachel are my Heroes,just like Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck are yours Field Marshal.

That explains a lot melvin. A LOT! Olbermann is a complete nut...

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TeaPartyRules:

Libs don't get to excited. This is why Reid is ahead in this poll. Notice the small sampling of Indies and Repubs.

Read the ink on the page.

Democrats 269 (43%) Republicans 248 (40%) Independents 108 (17%)

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melvin:

Sharon Angle must saw this poll on this website this morning,now i hear she wants to give a interview to ABC News.this is going to be interesting.

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Xenobion:

Small sampling of Independents for sure but there's an 11% gap in Democrats to Republicans in that state.

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Stillow:

So much fuss on this one poll. The only # in this poll that matters is once again Reid is capped at 44 percent support. That is all he will get on election day, maybe eek it to 45. i said back whenAngle won the primary that you libs will have good polls in this race and I said it would be very similar to the Christie/Corzine race in NJ. Corzine lead in several polls leading up to the election, but never with more than 44 percent. He would post leads of 43-38 or 41-34 over Christie....and I would always say the key was the cap of corzine support.

With such low numbers in this poll an so many undecideds, Angle is still the favorite. Her cap is simply higher than Reids. This race is almost identical to the Corzine/Christie race. So I'll tell you lefties the same thing I said in those threads, what matters here is Reid's ceiling of support which is deadlocked at 44 percent. Plus angle has yet to start campaigning. Ads here are ten to one for Reid right now.

Undecideds will break against Reid as they did corzine in the end. Reid on election day will get probably 45 percent, barely...angle will get 49-51 percent.

This far out its all about the ability to poll and set watermarks....that favors angle, Reid cannot get anymore support than he has, he is peaked and maxed out.

You leties are making the same mistakes you made in the NJ election. This is almost a carbon copy of the remarks made in those early NJ threads.

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TeaPartyRules:
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Field Marshal:

TPR,

They would rather focus on the Time poll from a few days ago which showed him up 30 and ignore that obviously biased pollster.

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melvin:

Teaparty-Rules, did you see the Cnn ticker today,or did you read the Time poll on here showing Sarah Palin getting killed by 20% to Obama.

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melvin:

Rather you Republicans like it or not Sarah Palin is going to run in 2012, in theres nothing Mitt Roomney,Huckabee,Pawlenty,or Jeb Bush can do about it.

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TeaPartyRules:

Honestly Melvin you're to stupid to for me to engage you any further.

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Gopherguy:

Stillow,

Is there a third party candidate in the race that could conceivably take 4+%? If so, 44 or 45 could be enough.

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melvin:

Gallup poll has Sarah Palin approval rating among Republicans at 76%,no other Republican even come close,my god Roomney is at 54%.To all you Republicans on here:Sarah Palin is going to be your nominee in 2012,get over it.

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melvin:

TPR: Sarah Palin is the stupid one who wants to be President,by the way is she your idol TPR?

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melvin:

Thank God for Sarah Palin, and the Tea-party.

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Stillow:

Gopherguy - No. and there will be no credible 3rd party person to take votes from anyone. A couple points might go to someone, but not enough to affect anything. Angle's watermarks are simply much higher than reid's....just as Christie's were over corzine.....thats what makes these early polls important. Many things can change in four months, but I think most of us can agree Reid is capped at 45 percent of the vote on election day.

Also with Sandoval on the ballot who will brutalize rory Reid for governor, that may help Angle get another poin or two.

There is no doubt Reid has more cash, just as corzine did...he is running a major ad blitz....he is spending money like mad here right now and he remains capped at 44 percent.

Look for an angle win of 49-51 / 45 on election day.

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Field Marshal:

Angle's ads are just getting going while Reid has been bombarding LV and Reno constantly since primary day. A few percentage point lead is not good for having a monopoly on the media and directing the narrative for a month and a half. Look for Reid to drop next time around.

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Paleo:

"Field Marshal:
TPR,

They would rather focus on the Time poll from a few days ago which showed him up 30 and ignore that obviously biased pollster."

The poll was out yesterday. It wasn't 30, it was 21. And where's the evidence the pollster was biased? 0 for 3.

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RussTC3:

Paleo You must not have seen my 4-point example yesterday about PPP's poll. I'll re-post it for ya:

Here are just four problems with the poll:

1) 2008 vote: Obama +1. 2008 was actually Obama +7.

2) Male/Female: 51/49 Male (Male +2). 2008 was actually 47/53 Female (Female +6).

3) Conservative / Liberal split: +24 Conservative (43/19). 2008 was actually +12 Conservative (34/22).

4) Age 18-44 / Age 45+ split: -25 (37/62). 2008 was actually -6 (47/53).

I could maybe give PPP the benefit of the doubt had they polled likely voters, but this was with Registered voters. You can't ignore these obvious flaws in that poll.

Moving on.

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RussTC3:

Now let's put the focus back on this poll. Several people have pointed out that the Party ID breakdown seems a bit odd (43D, 40R, 17I: or Dem +3). In the 2008 General Election the break-down was actually Dem +8 but there were more Indy's (38D, 30R, 32I).

Now it could just be that more Reps who were unwilling to label themselves Reps in 2008 are more okay with it now thus you get that larger increase.

Regardless, the +3D Party ID in this survey actually favors Angle. If you adjust the Party ID to the 2008 election (38/30/32) you get the following results:

Reid: 45
Angle: 35

So Reid +7 according to Mason-Dixon, or Reid +10 according to a 2008 electorate.

The only other major breakdown provided is Male/Female and they show no change whatsoever in that make-up (52/42 -- Female/Male) so that leads me to believe that Republicans are simply more willing to label themselves Reps in 2010 than they were in 2008 or Mason-Dixon just pushed them further than exit-poll respondents were pushed in 2008.

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Paleo:

More males than females? Probably because, as I said yesterday, a lot of 15 year old males with the hots for Palin voted in the poll.

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Stillow:

RussTC3 - You cannot apply party ID from a major presidnetial election with an off year election.Obama's base surged in 2008 while Mccains dithered. the enthusiasm was with Dems, by proxy that means more republicans stay home than do Dems....

this election is an off year election where the enthusiasm gap is now totally oppositte and more Dems will stay home...esepcially with n unpopular guy like Reid is running.

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jmartin4s:

Sharron Angle is hemmorraging and it is way too early for to be happening suggesting to me that she may be doa come election night. As we learned from Elizabeth Dole, George Allen, and Martha Coakley once you start bleeding votes its very tough to stop. Why the republican party screwed this one up is beyond me.

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RussTC3:

Stillow
Believe me I know that, but it's a good starting off point to see errors in polling, especially when the sample is Registered Voters (PPP's national survey was among Registered voters, not likely voters which made their results are the more confusing).

I realize Mason-Dixon polled likely voters for this Nevada race but I was just pointing out that their Party ID breakdown of Dem +3 probably isn't that far-fetched, even with the low identification among Indys. And if anything it could be too favorable to Rep turnout.

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Stillow:

RussTC3 - Indy's these days have a republican tilt to them since so many republicans became indy's. I think a Dem +3 is about right what you can expect on election day, but Indy's will be much higher than this poll says. And in this type of cycle they will favor angle. as I said above, we know Reid's cap is 45 percent. Angle's we do not know, but we do know her watemrarks are higher which means those willing vote for her is greater than the # of people willing to vote for Reid. That si why Reid cannot win this race....he is copetitive with a much smaller percentage of the vote in NV than angle is.

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jmartin4s:

I bet even Stillow and Field Marshall will agree that Angle wanting to make booze illegal was dumb especially with so many voters coming from the Las Vegas area.

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RussTC3:

jmartin4s
She didn't actually say that did she?

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tjampel:

Field Marshal:

tjample,

"The ceiling is reached for Reid, in my opinion, because the 19% undecided is 2-1 more Rep than Dem with Indie undecided almost 2-1 over Dem. I'm not saying all those indies will break for Angle, but i would venture to say that a majority will.

And the favorables at this point are all driven by a false media narrative on Angle.... "

Well...44 + 5= 49 (if 15% out of the remaining 19% vote for either Reid or Angle and the split is an optimistic 2/1. Result would be 49/47/4; this is what I just predicted actually; I was using this or similar split for undecided. (I said 2-3% victory for Reid if things stay where they are...they won't)

As for your remarks on favorables, I just don't see anything favorable about Angle even if I'm in your camp on economic issues. She's a loon for so many other reasons that aren't even known to the public and, the positions that are public and her own statements, from the primary and the old website are killing her.

It's not disinformation by Reid. It's her support for Yucca Mtn, her unnecessary statement that she would not have supported the Reid's efforts to save 52k jobs in LV (whether you approve of what Reid did or not it's foolish to speak out on something that's a clear win for Reid in terms of popular opinion). Her previous statements of wishing to abolish whole agencies are on the record.

It's not disinformation to broadcast them or use them in Ads. Her statements in Jan about privatizing social security and giving the Gov no hand at all in terms of individual retirement accounts (put the money in derivatives if you want)...please listen to that one interview and you'll see what I mean....is what it is.

There's no need to distort what Angle said; she said it; it's on the record.

And beyond that there's the fact that Angle is clearly involved with Scientology, which I think is a wholly illegitimate enterprise (an enterprise rather than a religion as everything they offer has a price tag, and it was invented out of thin air around 1950 by L Ron Hubbard, who, incidentally, in his one of his books remembered a past life he'd had....as a clam, and who also posited that "Piltdown Man" was a missing link; only Piltdown man was admitted to be a fraud about 8 years after that book was published. The book also says the universe is 60 Trillion years old, which is 4300 times older than what any respected scientists say.)

Angle went to Mexico on a trip sponsored and paid for by Scientology to look at how massage therapy helps prison inmates there and was openly involved in another project (it was even posted on her old website for a time) which opposes the use of psychotropic medication to treat mental illness. Scientology has been leading a crusade against medicating mental patients for the past 10 years now. We all know what happens here when people don't take their meds, right?

She also was a moving force behind AIP in NV in the early 90s. This isn't getting any press, not mainstream, at least; the AIP put out some especially hateful publications about gays and others, especially about "Sodomites" and the evil they perpetrate; it's at the level of Uganda's "string em up" mentality. Find it online and read it.

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jmartin4s:

@russtc3
yes she did

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jmartin4s:

I cant wait to see what PPP poll of this race shows next week. If PPP has it as a tie or a Reid lead than that is horrific for Sharron Angle. Just remember Christie led Corzine in every PPP poll. Sharron Angle better be praying she is +1 in the PPP poll next week.

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RussTC3:

jmartin4s
LOL. She's crazy.

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Stillow:

RussTC3 - Why don't you ask him to send you the link to the quote she actually said...........

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jmartin4s:

"I would tell you that I have the same feelings about marijuana, not medical marijuana, but just legalizing marijuana. I felt the same about legalizing alcohol. The effect on society is so great that I’m just not a real proponent of legalizing any drug or encouraging any drug abuse."
----Sharron Angle

Meaning she want booze to be illegal.

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Field Marshal:

The poll was out yesterday. It wasn't 30, it was 21. And where's the evidence the pollster was biased? 0 for 3.

PPP has Palin and Obama tied. PPP is a dem pollster with a much better reputation. Like you libies do with Ras or Fox where there's also no evidence of bias; i will go with PPP though. Time is a liberal publication.

0 for 2,145.

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Field Marshal:

P.S. However, do i actually think Palin would beat Obama? Absolutely not. And asking for evidence from me for calling Time biased is hysterical given that you and the other Rasaphobes call Ras bias about 6 times a day without evidence. Fox polls too. So give it up.

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tjampel:

jmartin4s:

"Sharron Angle is hemmorraging and it is way too early for to be happening suggesting to me that she may be doa come election night.... Why the republican party screwed this one up is beyond me."

Let's not forget that the Republican Party did not screw it up in the way you may think though, ultimately they screwed it up really badly.

They wanted Lowden to be the nominee, which was the best case scenario. She would have beaten Reid had things gone acording to plan. But...we all know they didn't. Lowden tanked because of her chicken/barter remarks, and her idiotic doubling and tripling down on them... plus her in-kind 100k contribution from a supporter---an RV someone donated to her, whereupon she promptly doubled down again by claiming it was a rental...it wasn't) didn't help at that point.

All the while Sharron Angle was looking golden with the base with all her truth-telling conservative "purity" on her website (as far as the base was concerned). When she won and while she still had some bounce in her legs, the National Party quickly scrubbed the website and shanghaied her out the public view until they felt she was ready for prime time.

When Coryn & Co brought her back it appeared that she had completely changed/modified/enhanced/qualified all her positions (SS is a good example, if you listen to her January interview which called for a hand's off approach by the Gov't and a completely privatized model. Not one word about saving SS; she twice mentioned the need to privatize it. Later it's all about saving it, personalizing it, etc. This doesn't play; people aren't stupid, nor is Harry going to let any of that slide without shoving it right back in her face again and again in entertaining ways, I hope.

Running your positions back in this way only serves to sour your true-believing base (though they rationalize it for the most part as...."she's gotta do this to have a chance") and it furthermore creates an aura of distrust among potential moderate voters who are going to see, hear and be reminded of her earlier positions nonstop. This is where, IMO, Repubs, especially at the national level, have screwed it up.

Compare with Crist. He's an even bigger flip-flopper but he knows how to do it strategically. He puts out a stream of new positions, acts on legislation in a manner which telegraphs a more liberal intention, and generally doesn't allow himself to be pinned down by old news; the oil spill has helped, but he's smart enough to seize every opportunity to get positive press and be perceived as doing something, creating something, making new news, rather than what he's really been doing--- quietly achieving one of the great political makeovers I've ever seen.

Crist was doing press-releases and Ads and commercials about being the one true real true-red conservative in the race 6 months ago. A few deft librul moves later he's successfully transitioned into being somewhere to the left of Ben Nelson...in Lieberman-Snowe territory. And he pulled it off brilliantly; no one seems to be hitting him for it. By the time they DO start trying to call him a flip-flopper he'll have a record of being liberal on social issues and moderate to conservative on fiscal ones and every Dem and moderate Indie and Repub in Fla will be happy with that; they'll be happy for each flip and flop.

Angle followed no such schedule. Her moves, the very next day on the website, on sharply revising her previous remarks and policy initiatives, her avoidance of the Press (Crist never tried to do that...he used them...reflect a kind of panic mode in the Repub party.

So the Repub party screwed it up after the candidates themselves determined that the least electable one would stand for the general against the most vulnerable Dem incumbent in the nation running for the Senate this year.

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jmartin4s:

Here are three of Angle's main viewpoints
-take the U.S. out of the U.N.
-phase out social security
-shut down the IRS
However, in addition to her foolish remarks she has another downside. When she talks or goes on camera she comes off as very trashy and uneducated. I mean its like the republican primary voters where looking for the worst candidate possible. Right now i have this one as tossup/tilt dem due to how Nevada has soured on Reid. However if PPP shows Harry Reid with a substantial lead, I will move this one to Lean Dem.

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mdey:

Man, the Republicans in Nevada are idiots. They blew this one big time. Anybody sane could have beaten Reid, but they nominated an unhinged lunatic. Reid might ultimately win in November by 20 or more points.

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Poll Troll:

@jmartin4s

Fancy yourself a Charlie Cook eh? What do we care which column you place this in? Have any empirical data such as historical trends or Nevadan preference for certain issues? Have you ever been to NV?

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