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NV: 45% Reid, 40% Angle (POS 9/21-23)

Topics: Nevada , poll

Public Opinion Strategies (R)
9/21-23/10; 500 likely voters, 4.4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(POS release)

Nevada

2010 Senate
45% Reid (D), 40% Angle (R), 1% Ashjian (T) (chart)

2010 Governor
45% Sandoval (R), 39% R. Reid (D), 1% DiSimone (i), 1% Fitzgibbons (I) (chart)

 

Comments
Aaron_in_TX:

I didn't know Ashjian was running. He could siphon away important votes from Angle.

Also don't know what's going on with the gov race. It looks a lot closer than it should be.

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Billy Chunge:

Angles autism comment is going to hurt her bigtime.

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JJC:

This same poll also found Rory Reid to be in single digits behind Sandoval, which is very doubtful. Seems more like an outlier.

"Angles autism comment is going to hurt her bigtime."

No it's not. No amount of attack ads will change anyone's mind at this point. Nevada has become the most negative race in the country. Nevadan's already know every single negative thing about both candidates, fair or not. At this point both candidates would be wise to start running positive ads to try to sway the undecideds.

BTW, Ashjian is not a Tea Partier. He's a plant who is trying to siphon votes away from Angle. The TEA Party Express has already run ads exposing him as a fraud.

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Xenobion:

I was skeptical when I saw these numbers but they did write the poll really well doing name reversals of the two top candidates. For an end of the week poll it is very good for the Dems as well. Probably an outlier but curious where polling took place in it.

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melvin:

Everytime the Dems get some momentum the media in the pollsters come out the next few days with ridiculous poll numbers...When O'Donnell won in DE it gave the Dems a great shot to keep Biden's seat,but isn't it strange right after that the pollsters came out with polls showing a tie in WV,Feingold is now losing big in Wisc,and Gilli brand now all of a sudden have a small lead in NYK....The media in the pollsters is doing they're best to shoot down the Democrats momentum,because it is very obvious these people want the Democrats to do very bad in the Midterms,but I got news for them''it anit going to happen,because the media in the pollsters knows the Republicans dont have the numbers to pull it off,and the gop is very divided right now,something the mainstream media is not talking about period.

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melvin:

Here are the Generic Ballet numbers some of the pollsters had for the GOP a few days before the 2002 Midterms,which many political experts had the GOP stretching they're house lead from 224 to over 255..It didn't happen,because the Minority vote was 15% up from 8% in 1994....If the Minority vote be 18% in November which i predict,it would mean the GOP will be very lucky to win over 20 seats,because the Minority vote is going to stop the GOP in most suburban areas where the Minorities are moving to in a more faster pace then anyone can count.

CNN-GOP by 10%
Rasmussen-GOP by 10%
Zodby-GOP by 16%
Gallup-GOP by 7%
Fox-GOP by 9%
Mason-GOP by 20%
Quinnipiac-GOP by 12%

These was the generic numbers just a week before the 2002 Midterms,which saw the GOP only pickup 5 seats,increasing they're lead in the Congress to 229 from 224.

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Dave:

I believe the acronym is accurate. Reid only down 6? Riiiiight.

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lat:

Stillow,

You can preach all you want about how this election is about Harry Reid and under normal circumstances you would be right, but you are forgetting one thing which is CANDIDATES MATTER! Sharron Angle is an absolute nut pure and simple. Harry Reid should be 10-15 points down right now and he's got a better than even money chance to win. Tarkanian or Lowden would have been running away with this at this point so you can thank the great tea party if Angle loses (you can also thank them in Delaware and possibly CO).

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lat:

Dave,

To use some of the logic I have seen on here (which I don't buy into) this is a gop leaning pollster.

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Farleftandproud:

If this were Ohio or Pa and the Democrat were ahead against two fairly reputable and decent GOP senate candidates who I happen not to agree with, I would be cautious, but I think against a maniac like Sharron Angle, electing her would be a huge injustice to the state. I don't think she would just be bad for the state, she would be outright dangerous. I think Rory reid still doesn't have a prayer, but I think Sandoval is dropping his big lead some due to Sharron Angle's extremism.

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StatyPolly:

Looks like an 8-9 point outlier for both races. First of all, they polled 5% more Dems than Repubs. In a NV LV screen? Not sure if that makes sense.

LVRJ/Mason Dixon just released Gov race, polled at about the same dates - Sandoval+14, which is about where the averages are. So POS is 8 points off that one.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/nv/nevada_governor_sandoval_vs_reid-1137.html

And on Angle's race, POS says they polled it in Feb 10 and Reid was up 5 as well, while there were a number of polls in Jan-Mar 10 and Angle led in all of them. Averaged about Angle+4. So POS was about 9 points off then too.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/nv/nevada_senate_angle_vs_reid-1517.html

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Farleftandproud:

I think if Lowden or Tarkanian had won, they would be significantly ahead of Reid, because they are more like the type of fiscal conservative that reflects Nevada. Angle is a fierce social conservative who doesn't seem to have the best interests in mind of a state that is dependent on an industry that both Angle's religion and Harry Reid's religion frown upon. Tarkanian would have a big lead because he was smooth and connected with college basketball, which probably would have connected with the those who bet on sports games.

Perhaps if Reid wins, the conservative Christian faction who nominated Angle could be a blessing in disguise, but that is only if this poll holds up.

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lat:

Flap,

As my good friend at the RNC told me confidentially "Sharron Angle is God's gift to Harry Reid", in addition they are furious that they now have to pour so much money into this race. By the way he also told me they are rooting for Mike Castle to do a write in campaign and frankly why shouldn't they be due to the fact that O'Donnell is a sure loser.

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Farleftandproud:

The Tea party loves to roll the dice. As a progressive, I would never want to see a guy like Chuck Schumer run in Iowa; it just wouldn't happen or Barney Frank running for governor of Montana. It would be stupid, and Hannity and Glen beck would be excited because the Republican would cream the Democrat He would never get elected.

O'Donnell might have a shot in Kansas, but not in a Mid Atlantic Democratic state like Delaware. It would be like me being the senate nominee in Texas. I may break 30 percent, but the other 65 percent would want to strangle me.

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billwy:

It's so easy to pick apart a poll you don't like. It is what it is. the last 4 polls showed angle +1 or tied. Accounting for margin of error in the previous 4 and this one, they show Reid up 1-2 probably. Which honestly leaves us where we've been since Angle was nominated...namely, close. Neither is liked by a majority and the winner won't likely be known until 1 or 2 AM here in the East.

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Stillow:

lat - I'd be worried if the governor portion of the poll didn't clearly prove its an outlier. Sandoval is easily up double digits on Rory...so the poll is rpobably tweaked by about 5 points or so....Reid and Angle remain essentially tied and both deadlocked with about 45 percent...and Sandoval up on rory by about 12 points or so. I know tons of people who are not going to vote for Angle, but they are voting against Reid which helps angle.

If Angle wins she is in for one term only, she'd be booted after that. right now for most the objective seems to be getting rid of Reid. On this the huge MOE come sinto play...and the guvna's race proves that one. Since almsot everyone else has Rory getting crushed and Reid and Angle deadlocked in a statistical tie.

Totally unrelated side rant...to the guy who dented my door in the Lowe's pakring lot and left no note, your a damned son of a bitch!.

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Farleftandproud:

If Angle does win, she will be a one-termer, and I predict that she will also bring down a few other Republican senators in the process just for being in her commitees if elected. If someone like Olympia Snowe were in a commitee with Angle, and votes with her, I'm sure that would make enough to make 2012 Snowe's last year.

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Farleftandproud:

I think this campaign has gotten ugly and some violence has erupted, but for a Reid supporter, I can understand why they wouldn't put up with crap after being taunted by a Angle supporter. As for leaving nasty notes on someone's cars for supporting a certain candidate is inexcusable. That is just wrong.

I was at a debate in VT with 2 gubernatorial candidates, Shumlin, and Vt's first anti-choice gubernatorial candidate Brian Dubie. Some teenage kid with his parents had his cell phone ringing loudly while Shumlin explained his pro-choice position. The kid got yelled at by myself and other people. I just said "Shut up your phone".

I guess civility is gone in American politics because each side has to constantly outdo each other in many campaigns on every issue. When some like Pawlenty or Romney win some respect across party lines, as soon as they consider running for president, they abandon their commitment to serve the American people, and start using language that is inflamatory, and start taking lines from Palin and Jim Demint.

Over the years, there have been Republicans at one time I thought were independent and moderate; Mccain with his campaign finance reform, and questioning Bush's tax cuts and Romney as Governor of Mass, passing an early version of Universal health coverage; now he attacks Obamacare as evil, and is trying to gain sympathies from Hardline Republicans like Mike Pence and Jim Demint.

More recently, we had Susan Collins promising to strive to put an end to Don't ask don't tell and than not vote for it.

Olympia Snowe, said she wanted to help change history and consider being the 60th vote for a bill with a strong public option. I should have been suspicious, because at Obama's state of the Union speech, she was sitting in between, Senators Cornyn and Inhofe. They probably bribed her.

They were probably ridiculed by their party, and they did disappoint their constituents.

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Kaw-liga:

Obvious outlier.

The margin between Angle's support and Sandoval's is interesting, though. In this poll, she's only 5 points behind Sandoval, while Harry is only 6 points ahead of Rory.

If you think Sandoval will beat Rory by more than 11 points, that suggests Angle will prevail as well. That's a little better result for Angle than the Mason-Dixon poll which had a tied Senate race and a 14-point Sandoval lead (with fewer undecideds).

Not sure what to make of the Reuters/Ipsos poll showing a 29 pt Sandoval lead and a 2 point Harry lead, but I'm not terribly impressed with Reuters/Ipsos in general.

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Farleftandproud:

Well of course people are allowed to split their vote. Maybe Sandoval isn't that bad of a leader, but angle is a nutcase. Don't forget, Kerry won re-election by 30 points in 2002 and Romney won the governor's seat by 10.

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Farleftandproud:

And many Conservative Democratic Reps have survived in heavily Republican districts, for years like Taylor in MS, and Mattison in Utah. I was doing some campaign calls and this guy who was running the campaign, asked if I would ask people supporting the governor if they would vote the straight Democratic ticket? I sad no because sometimes in the local races, people will cross party lines to vote for their friends. I might have some Republican friends I might vote for locally, at least for dog catcher.

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John:

I think the reason why this poll seems somewhat different from the average, is the large number of none-of-the-above, which is one of the options in Nevada (and one of the options given in these polls) although I doubt it will be as high in the final result. In this poll, none-of-the-above get 7% in the senate race and 9% in the governor race.

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Stillow:

farleft - You continue to miss the point of this election. From watching local news and listening to local talk, my best guess is about 15-20 percent of angle's support is not really Angle support, its anti reid. Remember, he got over 60 percent of the vote last time around. Many of those voting for angle are absolutely only voting against Reid because they want him out so badly.

Reid has always been pretty popular here until this past couple years when he went kooky far left on everyone since he took over as mahoiryt leader. HCR for example had almost a 60 percent disapproval here.

People want reid out, tis as simple as that...and if that means putting in a freshman senator like angle for 6 years to do it, then a lot of folks are willing to do it. Reid has to go.

Its so bad for him here right now there are service sectory union members who are constantly down near the Luxor hotel o nthe corner there with signs that say "Reid must go". or "anyone but Harry".

You can comment on Angle's short comings, but Reid has gone to the land of the left wing kooks and his popularity has suffered greatly for it...and will probably cost him his seat. You can do that in wacky states like VT, but not in purple states like NV.

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BillBell:

Melvin -- Mason-Dixon has never conducted a national generic ballot poll. Check your facts!

CNN-GOP by 10%
Rasmussen-GOP by 10%
Zodby-GOP by 16%
Gallup-GOP by 7%
Fox-GOP by 9%
Mason-GOP by 20%
Quinnipiac-GOP by 12%

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BillBell:

Melvin -- Mason-Dixon has never conducted a national generic ballot poll. Check your facts!

CNN-GOP by 10%
Rasmussen-GOP by 10%
Zodby-GOP by 16%
Gallup-GOP by 7%
Fox-GOP by 9%
Mason-GOP by 20%
Quinnipiac-GOP by 12%

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BillBell:

Melvin -- Mason-Dixon has never conducted a national generic ballot poll. Check your facts!

CNN-GOP by 10%
Rasmussen-GOP by 10%
Zodby-GOP by 16%
Gallup-GOP by 7%
Fox-GOP by 9%
Mason-GOP by 20%
Quinnipiac-GOP by 12%

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