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NV: 48% Angle, 48% Reid (Rasmussen 9/13)

Topics: Nevada , poll

Rasmussen
9/13/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Nevada

2010 Senate
48% Angle (R), 48% Reid (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Harry Reid: 45 / 51 (chart)
Sharron Angle: 41 / 55

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 46 / 51 (chart)
Gov. Gibbons: 37 / 59 (chart)

 

Comments
Paleo:

As with OH-Sen, 1 point difference between Rasmussen and Rasmussen/Pulse.

Angle -14 compared to Reid's -6.

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Dave:

So tell me, what does Rasmussen have to gain by supposedly doing these polls for Fox as well?

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Paleo:

Money.

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Dave:

Well, yes, that's generally the point of a business. Anything else?

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Field Marshal:

From the CQ Quarterly:
"The new set of Fox News surveys that we highlighted earlier were actually conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, which is a new venture from pollster Scott Rasmussen which "will allow anyone willing to pay $600 to go to the website, type in their credit card number, and run any poll that they wanted, with any language that they want..."

But, in reality, how is that any different than any other polling organization. The key here is that it APPEARS the weighting methodology is the same as Rasmussen polls and simply the wording is different.

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Paleo:

"Anything else?"

Yeah, it allows Scotty to flood the zone even more.

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Field Marshal:

The polls do have the crosstabs at the end.

35% Rep
40% Dem
25% ind

70% white
30% non-white

54% women
46% men

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Dave:

Ah yes. Floodthezonemussen.

So what benefit is it to him to do so?

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Paleo:

You can lead a horse to water . . . . I let you figure that one out.

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Dave:

Nope, just not getting it. Help me out.

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General Jim:

Field Marshall:

The crosstabs on 35-R, 40-D, and 25-I. You must have the wrong poll. Are you sure this is a Rasmussen poll? I think you have it backwards. I think it is 40-R and 35-D. I can't believe that D+5 and Angle is still tied. Plus 54% women, I think is a little high. Interesting???

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Gopherguy:

Let me take a stab at it Dave. I may be way off base, but that's what happens when you try to get in someone's head.

I can think of a few reasons.

1. Scott is a self-identified Republican. Obviously, his polls are reported on by the media. Thus, his flooding drives a narrative. If his polls consistently show Republicans ahead, the media will report it. Republicans become excited about these prospects, almost giddy, so they're more likely to vote for their candidate. They want to participate in something they believe in. On the flip side, it helps depress democratic turnout because the narrative says Democrats will lose big. Thus, people inclined to vote for Democrats see no point in voting because their vote won't matter. So, Scott wins because his party controls more of the country.

2. Scott wants to make money. Flooding the zone gets his name out there. His firm becomes more known; thus, more business may go his way, especially if he is accurate. If his narrative is correct, he becomes more reputable. Thus, he can charge more and get more business. Plus, by flooding the zone for months he can show clients a month-by-month or week-by-week breakdown in how he polled races, how the numbers changed, and how to interpret number changes over the duration of the client's race.

I'm not sure if both, either, or neither of this reasons are correct. However, that's what makes sense to me from the outside.

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General Jim:

Turnout is hard to predict. 2006 it was 34D - 40R - 26I in a Dem year. In 2008 it was 38D - 30R - 32I in a massive Dem year.

The 2010 is not 35R - 40D, to be safe it would be 36R - 36D - 28I. If the turnout is like 2006 than Angle wins easy.

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Hawk:

I don't think either Angle or Reid wins easily. All the recent polls have this as a very close race. This is a true tossup right now.

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tjampel:

Harry Reid's favorables are the best I've seen from any pollster of late (that is over the past year and a half).

Dunno if that's an aberration or if he's making a bit of a comeback.

In any case Reid's broken through the "Stillow 45% Ceiling"; any other memes you Repubs would like to throw out about Harry's unelectability?

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