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NV: 50% Angle, 48% Reid (Rasmussen 8/16)

Topics: Nevada , poll

Rasmussen
8/16/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Nevada

2010 Senate
50% Angle (R), 48% Reid (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Harry Reid: 44 / 55 (chart)
Sharron Angle: 43 / 56

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 45 / 55 (chart)
Gov. Gibbons: 36 / 63 (chart)

 

Comments
boomer40:

Sharron Angle: 43 / 56

So NINETY NINE PERCENT of Nevada voters can offer an opinion about Sharron Angle? Bull hockey. I don't know why anyone takes these polls seriously.

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bonncaruso:

This poll is a bunch of bull.

Reid will win by at least 7 points.

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CHRIS MERKEY:

Scotty is back to his old tricks again. I think I am going to keep this one. Her numbers are worse than Reid's. I could see her beating him if she had good numbers but she don't.

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Crimsonite:

Just be aware that this is with leaners. The people who indicated initial preference are 47-47. When you hate both people, as at least 5 % do you may be leaning towards getting rid if the guy you really hate just for someone new.

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lat:

Stillow,

I remember you saying that Harry had a "ceiling" of 45%. Well it seems like he must have gotten drunk and put his head thorough his ceiling, but then again he does not drink so that won't work. It must be that Harry actually has a shot to win this thing which he never should have had.

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Field Marshal:

Even with the barrage of negative ads put out by Harry Reid where he spent many millions more than Angle will on the whole campaign, his unfavorable are STILL higher than Angles. Not good. Angle wins this by 4%.

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TeaPartyRules:

LOL at all the lib cry babies. Tea time in NV bitches.

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billwy:

A few years back I got on Newsmax's mailing list. Today, they had a fundraising plea from Sharon Angle. In it she mentions that a friend, or colleague, I forget which, said that during an hour long tv show he saw 4 attack ads by Harry Reid against Sharon Angle.
Now, if Angle wins a high profile Republican Primary, is running ads of her own statewide, and is being relentlessly attacked by Harry Reid on tv, why is it so hard to believe she has 99% name recognition? I admit it sounds high, but it also sounds like you would have to be living under a rock to not know who she and Reid are.
Further, explain to me those who are doubting this poll, why you're so sure Reid will win by 7? MD just showed this a two point race over the weekend, in the other direction. Adjust for Rasmussen's house effect of 2-3 points and it's a statistical tie.
I'm frustrated with the RAS haters on this site. They have a well documented house effect. Fine. All pollsters do. But just to do some comparison work-their plus 12 for the GOP on the generic ballot among LV jives very well with Gallup's GOP plus 7 among RV. PPP a democratic polling firm saw nearly identical numbers in PA yesterday as Rasmussen. In fact, they were not as bullish on Sestak's chances.

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Louis:

After Reid's politically opportunistic remarks on the Mosque I really don't care which of these two fools wins. Neither belong in the US Senate.

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Mogando669:

I agree. The unknown is always more favorable than the known bad. Same reason the "Generic Republican" beats Obama but none of them do when you put an actual name to it.

At nearly the highest unemployment and definitely the highest foreclosure rate in the country (maybe tie with FL?), coupled with a majority leader that shoved HCR down 260mil people to benefit 30-40mil, i can't imagine him getting elected.

Those who think nothing will change for those who already have insurance today must've been living in a cave. Sure you can keep your own policy, but the insurance company might raise the price, or refuse to renew it when it expires (since it becomes unprofitable for them), then you'll end up with fewer choices i.e. even higher prices.


"Crimsonite:

Just be aware that this is with leaners. The people who indicated initial preference are 47-47. When you hate both people, as at least 5 % do you may be leaning towards getting rid if the guy you really hate just for someone new."

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Field Marshal:

How about Reid being for removing the birthright piece of the 14th amendment in the 90's? What a typical loser politician. That won't help him with Hispanics along with his racism against blacks and Hispanics.

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Bob in SJ:

Regardless of how accurate these numbers are, or how you feel about Rass, this has been quite the amazing political revival for Reid.

This will come down to turnout, and will be decided by less than 1%, I think.

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Steve:

Current polling of the Gov race shows Rory Reid down about 13% to Sandoval. GOP should win that one pretty easily. Harry Reid's reelection is going to depend on a lot of people willing to split tickets not just on party but on father and son.

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Crimsonite:

You know what, I think this race is gonna be quite like South Dakota's senate election in 2004, where Thune beat Senate Minority leader (though former Majority leader) Daschle. It probably will be super close, and we'll have no idea till election day, but Reid, because he is Reid will lose. I think its nearly impossible for him to get 50% or more. His only hope is for enough would-be Angle voters to vote none of the above, but I just think Nevadans can't stand Reid so much that like Stillow says they'll vote for Angle solely to get rid of Reid.

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Bob in SJ:

@ Steve

Father and son have tried very hard to distance thier respective campaigns. Rory tries to avoid using his last name. We'll see how effective it will be.

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Bob in SJ:

Also, Reid's recent numbers have bounced between 43-48, while Angle' have been between 37 and 50. Interesting.

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Stillow:

lat - Its called the MOE...this one has HR at 48 with a 4 percent MOE...so he's probably again right at 44/45....MOE's exist for a reason.

Sorry big lat, your favorite senator is TOAST! Angle took a lead shortly after Obama came out and spent the day with Reid....hahahahah, which I found hilarious. Notice how Reid came out against the mosque? He's trying to be as anti obama as he can right now in his ads here, but its to little to late for him.

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MikeyA:

What is going to kill Reid is the "none of the above" option.

The Tea Party voters will be motivated and will be reliable Angle votes. Everyone else may or may not vote or may chose "none of the above".

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Bob in SJ:

@ Stillow -

Still qualifiying? He's been at 48% in the last two polls. What's going to be your excuse if he gets to 48% or higher in a third? I think he's gonna win, but it will be close.

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Xenobion:

Mosque is a pretty non-issue frankly and to differ with it on Obama is like splitting hairs over general policy uniformity.

OMG I HEARD RIED LIKES STRAWBERRY AND OBAMA LIKES ROCKY ROAD ICE CREAM. REID IS MAD AND DISTANCING HIMSELF FROM OBAMA!!!!!!!!1111111

In reference to this poll... Its like Rasmussen didn't give any likely voters a "I don't know" vote or "undecided" or the infamous NV "neither of the above" vote. Nice one Scotty.

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StatyPolly:

To all those outraged by Angle's 99% name recognition:

This is a likely voter poll. Not knowing the names of candidates is probably grounds for not including you on such a poll.

Get it?

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Stillow:

You lefties sure looooooove to dream. MikeyA nailed it o nthe head....Reid's base is depressed, many past Reid voters now hate the guy. There is a great ad that just started tow days ago showing Reid and Barry locked at the arm. You guys are going to lose a second straight majoirty leader.

Its totally fun watching you guys cling to unpopular dorks like Hairy reid though.

You ugys make the same arguemtns over and over in every race lately and yet amazingly every race is going against everything your saying.

Your savior Obama is sinking like dead weight i nthe water and all your favorite footsoldiers are sinking with him, Reid is toast....the man hwo got over 60 percent last time is about to lose to a fairly bad candidate.

But keep smiling, at least you still have your health....well a least for a while unti lthe rationing kicks in.

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StatyPolly:

Comparing 9/11 to ice cream?

Nice.

Guess the Holocaust was just a bowl of cherries..

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Field Marshal:

LOL!

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Bob in SJ:

Keep spinning Stillow. Reid's number keep inching up, while Angle's all over the place. If Lowden had won, Reid would be toast. But the Tea Party hijacked your nomination, and left you with a neo-Prohibitionist nut. And, as Xeno stated above, Rass didn't ask the full slate of options; he also pushed leaners. It's going ot be very, very close.

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Stillow:

Bob in SJ:
Ya you ugys keep saying stop the spin...I've heard that for a long time now, heard it all last year in the guvna's races, heard with the Brown win in Mass....did you wanna make a freindly bet? say $100 to your favorite chariy? Yes I'll pay even if your favorite charity is the young Olbermanaics of America.

Reid cannot win....its so simple. Anyone coming to vegas check out the corner of lv blv and sahara where "local union" guys are out there unemployed and holding up anti reid signs....even the unions are pissed at Reid.

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StatyPolly:

Let's face it. Reid would lose to any sort of reasonable looking and sounding Repub.

There is nothing wrong with Angle's positions. Pro-life, pro-Yucca, pro-SS phaseout. THOSE ARE MAINSTREAM NATIONAL POSITIONS.

Her problem is her campaign style, not positions. Running away (literally) from media, and making odd statements about media are among the key reasons this race is still close.

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iVote:

Stillow-

You've proved your intelligence (or lack thereof) to everyone here with your adament "Harry Reid has a 45% ceiling" argument. Now that you've been proven wrong, over and over, it's hard to take anything you say seriously.

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Stillow:

FM - my freind, you need to keep this place sane for a while. I'm out of here for while, doc says I have to have bypass surgery this weekend and wants me off any stress related stuff for a while...and my wife said she won't allow me on the computer to blog for a while.

Hold down the fort....

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Bob in SJ:

@ Staty

Ask Stillow how popular Yucca Mountain is in Nevada.

Also, show me consistent polling that indicates a majority of Americans support SS phase out. I'd be very suprised if that were the case.

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Field Marshal:

Statypolly,

Mainstream Republican ideology is extreme to far-left, just to the right of Mao, type libies that frequent this board. Unbeknownst to them, THEY are the extremists has only a small percentage of the country espouse their beliefs and ideology.

Second, its quite clear that the mainstream media (a.k.a. Democratic party propaganda arm) are trying to promulgate the notion that the republican candidates are all extremists. The first tried to paint them all as racists up until the spring of this year. Having failed at that, they are turning to this new tactic. Its quite telling to see how the easy-swayed have taken up this banner without contemplation.

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Stillow:

iVote - You understand what a MOE is right? Its called the margin of error. You ever see a canddiate poll at say 55 percent in polls, but on election day they get say 52? That is because the poll is subject to this thing called the MOE....and if you go back and read my early Angle vs. reid posts you'll find I said two things. 1. That we can all expect some polls to show Reid leading by a few points thru out the campaign and 2. Reid's ceiling of support is 45 percent, BUT there iwll be a handful of polls giving him higher than that due simply to the MOE.

So thanks for playing!

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Field Marshal:

Good luck Stillow. No need to hold down the fort with the new conservatives that have migrated here like CompCon, Statypolly, MikeE, Mogando, TeaPartyRules, among others. Vastly different than a year or two ago when you and I were the only ones.

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StatyPolly:

Get well soon, Stillow. Just enjoy the polls and election results roll in.

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dpearl:

"I'm out of here for while, doc says I have to have bypass surgery this weekend and wants me off any stress related stuff for a while..."

Hope the surgery goes well Stillow. My thoughts are with you (even if my politics are not).

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Stillow:

"Bob in SJ:

Also, show me consistent polling that indicates a majority of Americans support SS phase out. I'd be very suprised if that were the case."

your joking right? Is this comedy hour on pollster.com? It was you liberals who taught us all that what the majoirty think is irreelveant. Recall the HCR debate? where support for its passage was in the 30's? while the majoiryt opposed it? But you libs told us we were all stupid and that we'd love it once it was passed and implemeneted!

LOL, that was to damn funny and easy!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Field Marshal:

Also, show me consistent polling that indicates a majority of Americans support SS phase out. I'd be very suprised if that were the case.

I would say most Americans support the idea of allowing CHOICE to privatize a PORTION of one's SS payroll deductions. Gallup found over 60% favoring that when the topic was hot after the state of the union in 2005. I know the libies are against choice unless someone is being murdered but i just don't see how one could be against this given the track SS is currently on.

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StatyPolly:

Bob, they don't need to be the majority positions to be mainstream. A large minority is also mainstream.

I don't know where the polling is on her positions, but most people do not consider them extreme.

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Xenobion:

9/11 is over. Get over it. Try aiming a bit better Stat as my comment as focused toward policy differences not 9/11. Unless you want to talk about not voting for Fire Service levees as an affront to the victims of 9/11. Its so easy to rule people's emotions over that event. Should I call you Rudolph Giuliani?

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Stillow:

Thank you gentlmeen...I'm signing off now. Hopefully back in the fold here in a few weeks or so.

Take care...

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StatyPolly:

Yes, you can call me Giuliani. I like Giuliani pretty well. A never talked about dark horse (is that redundant?) for 2012?

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StatyPolly:

By-pass surgery these days is over 99% safe and effective. Like a Ras poll name recognition. My dad had one about a decade ago. Still as good as new. At least that part..

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Xenobion:

He's a RINO that could only operate 1 arm of 3 of the Republican Party. I'm sure the other 2 will strangle him like last time.

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StatyPolly:

Rudy is great on fiscal responsibility and national security. Great leadership. Gives a great speech. His 08 GOP convention speech was awesome. He picked a bad strategy on 08 by putting all his eggs into Florida. And Florida had poor refrigeration.

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lat:

Stillow,

This communist liberal leftie (none of which I am but you think I am) wishes you all the best with your surgery. Get well soon!

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Fred:

thoughts are with you stillow. Hope the surgery goes well.

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lat:

StatePolly,

So what you are telling me is that someone who believes that a teenage girl who gets raped by her father and gets pregnant should "make lemonade out of lemons" and not have an abortion is a mainstream position? In a sentence are you xxxxxxx kidding me! And don't even try the nonsense that that's not what Sharron Angle said because that's exactly what she said.

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Field Marshal:

How many pregnancies in the last 10 years were the result of rape? I'm guessing less than a dozen so the argument is a strawman.

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StatyPolly:

Sure, it's a mainstream position. Believing that a fetus is human life is a mainstream position, so killing any fetus is murder, regardless of father's identity.

You support abortions on demand in cases of incest? Up to full-term gestation?

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Field Marshal:

I would even cede that i would ban all abortions except for those due to rape and incest (if done within the first 10 weeks). There is no acceptable reason to have an abortion otherwise.

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StatyPolly:

This is a very simple issue. I realize that many pro-lifers make exceptions for rape and incest. But Angle position is ethically pure, and the rest's is not.

YOU CANNOT BEND ETHICS FOR THE SAKE OF CONVENIENCE.

As an aside, the real travesty is the act of incestuous rape, not the act of child bearing. Have the child and give it up for adoption to a suitable set of parents is the only ethical choice.

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StatyPolly:

My personal view is close to yours, FM, but Angle's position is well within mainstream.

That position is that the only ethical circumstance for abortion is when mother's life is at stake.

You can end one life only to save another. That's super-duper ethical and mainstream.

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Farleftandproud:

If Angle does win, I predict that her presence in the senate will hurt GOP candidates for years to come. She is a lunatic.

Perhaps Fiorina, if her approval is extremely low if she is lucky enough to win, we can be the ones to recall a elected official this time around. They did with Schwartzneggar and CA has laws that can do that.

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Xenobion:

"How many pregnancies in the last 10 years were the result of rape? I'm guessing less than a dozen so the argument is a strawman."

The adult pregnancy rate associated with rape is estimated to be 4.7%. This information, in conjunction with estimates based on the U.S. Census, suggest that there may be 32,101 annual rape-related pregnancies among American women over the age of 18.17

You do the math.

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dpearl:

Xenobion: my guess is that FM was talking about incestuous rape since that was the topic of Ms. Angle's quote cited by the commentator he was responding to.

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Louis:

Stillow,
Hope your predictions are as accurate as two years ago.

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Farleftandproud:

One thing that is bizarre about this race, is you have Harry Reid who has a very pro life voting record for a Democrat and is really not a liberal in the whole scheme of things. I mean he is way more moderate than Feingold lets say.

For a state where 9 percent identified themselves as Mormons and 18 percent of the electorate as "Born again" it is hard to believe that Sharron Angle being a anti-choice, "fire and Brimstone" Southern Baptist a little out of place in a state that is dominated by Liquor sales and gambling.

This scenario seems more like what you might find in a state like North Carolina, Iowa or Indiana. I think of those states as more socially conservative and traditional, not Sin City and Reno!!! I have been to those Nevada and when I saw the street girls, showgirls, and pool hustlers it hardly seems like a place where either Reid or Angle would fit in.

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Xenobion:

Well from the reading on the subject most individuals that end up being the victim of incestuous rape end up having the child because of little recourse in the family relationship (typically older male and underage female). But it says about less than 1% happen annually. So 300ish a year?

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Farleftandproud:

Yeah, lets see how quickly Angle can ban abortion in Vegas and Reno. I am sure that rapes are higher than most other places. I am going to love to see how her policies will play out in Sin city.

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HookedOnPolls:

"lets see how quickly Angle can ban abortion in Vegas and Reno"

Huh? Could you explain how a senator (like Angle will be in a few more months..hehe) can
ban abortion in select cities?

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Farleftandproud:

No, she can't ban abortion, but Nevada in general with elected Republicans in a state where Democrats are supposedly in the majority will look pretty bizarre, or maybe I am wrong? I think Republicans like smut and free sex and gambling. Yeah all those Mormons and Born agains going out for a good time while they tell their wives they are at a Men's retreat.

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Chantal:

@Farleftandproud, they could also just be at a men's retreat.

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