9/17-21/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
McCain 46, Obama 45
There have been some new polls by ARG today too:
Sept 22 Polling Update
Posted on September 22, 2008 4:16 PM
There have also been 4 polls released by ARG today:
Sept 22 Polling Update
WOW NV is tight and shifting toward Obama. I'd be very scared if I was McCain. Man..how many Bush states are now in play?
Cannot find a good link for this poll. Suffolk has not posted it yet.
Posted on September 22, 2008 4:17 PM
Nevada will be blue. Reno was the Republican stronghold of this state and that area has seen significant Democratic registrations as well as a pretty good influx of liberal minded people into the area. I think Nevada is being overlooked a lot by the media right now.
Posted on September 22, 2008 4:20 PM
Your ticket has lost its traction. Worried?
Posted on September 22, 2008 4:22 PM
NV is all about Latino turnout. More then any other state (eve I would say CO) this state is all about Latino turnout. If Obama's ground game is worth anything, this is the one state that it could flip by getting feet on the ground. Expect lots of CA worker here in the week before the election.
Posted on September 22, 2008 4:24 PM
There is a new CNN poll out:
"In the presidential horse race, Democrat Barack Obama leads 51 percent to 47 percent for Republican John McCain among likely voters."
Don't worry McCain supporters, we know what you think about polls that show Obama ahead: biased, liberal sampling, outlier, etc,.
Nevada's voter registration is open through mid-October, and has early voting. So it's one of the many, many states where likely voter screens are problematic at best. With a good ground game (which Obama has), the voters will start getting turned out come October, leaving weeks to focus only on unlikely voters. And with early voting, it's a heck of a lot easier to turn those voters out because, again, you have weeks to do it, and can do it any time in those weeks.
Which is to say, it's far from clear what being one point down in Nevada means.
Posted on September 22, 2008 4:28 PM
OK OK my fellow Obama wel wishers. Three quick points -
1. LOOOONG WAY TO GO - still much work to do, we still need lots of boots on the ground and lots of telephone calls to make - Please volunteer.
2. Debates have not started yet. Obama could do worse than he did against Hillary. This is JM's forte both in subject matter and style. I think he's wrong in principal. Yes its true no sovereign Democracy ever attacked another sovereign Democracy - but we don't spread democracy through our military - we do so through incentives and diplomacy and slowly introducing economic reforms.
3. Looong way still to go. No one - especially not a real Dem should celebrate anything until November 5th. Than you are all invited to my place.
Posted on September 22, 2008 4:34 PM
Nevada is a slam dunk for Obama. Tbe democrats have the massive voter registration advantage in the state.
This is a state where Obama should be able to pull off a 3%-5% win because of early voting as well as the unlikely voter focus by the Obama team.
The Hispanic vote will be the clincher for the Obama team.
Posted on September 22, 2008 4:36 PM
Nah, not in NV....I assure you my home state will stay red...NV has a strong anti-tax vein in it and they will push McCain over the top here.....
it'll be close like 2004, but it'll stay red.
Posted on September 22, 2008 4:41 PM
The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, and included interviews of 1,020 Americans, including 909 registered voters and 697 likely voters.
Fifty-one percent of REGISTERED voters are backing Obama, who now holds a 5 point edge over McCain, at 46 percent.
McCain and Obama were tied at 48 percent apiece in the previous CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey.
Obama's advantage, while growing, is still within the poll's sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Posted on September 22, 2008 4:44 PM
About early voting.... Those are the voters who have already made up their minds and will not change. Those numbers are already reflected in the polls. What is not certain is the undecided and those who might change their mind. They will probably wait and see.
Posted on September 22, 2008 4:47 PM
I wonder how happy that anti-tax vein will be about the government using $700 Billion of our tax dollars to greatly interfere with free enterprise.
anyone have an idea why florida is tinted red on the map even though mcsame only has a 3.6% lead, while wisconsin is tinted yellow even though obama has a 3.7% lead?
Posted on September 22, 2008 4:48 PM
LIKELY voters back Obama 51% vs McCain 47%
Now, for those who were "worried" for Obama not reaching the 50% watermark.
Posted on September 22, 2008 4:52 PM
REGISTERED VOTERS: Obama 51% vs. McCain 46%
LIKELY VOTERS: Obama 51% vs. McCain 47%
"When including only those people most likely to vote, the results are pretty much the same: Among likely voters, Obama has a 4 point lead, 51 percent to 47 percent."
Posted on September 22, 2008 4:56 PM
KipTin - You're assuming early voters in some sort of ideal laboratory where no outside influence pushes them.
That's not how the ground game sees them. The Obama campaign has a pretty good weighted categorization of voters. Let's say, and I'm making up a number here, that a 19 year old college student Obama supporter who hasn't volunteered for the campaign is .5 votes. That is, they think they'll get 50% of those voters out on election day, and so any given student is half a vote for them.
What they're going to use early voting for is trying to bank those. Every time they get two of their .5 votes to vote early, they remove them from the pool and effectively gain a vote on what they otherwise would have gotten. Yes, they'd like to bank their strong support too, but the real appeal of early voting is that it gives them weeks worth of days where they can turn out their soft support, and start getting their fractional votes to count higher.
The election doesn't hinge on undecideds. It hinges on the level of turnout among decideds. It hinges on what a likely voter actually is.
Posted on September 22, 2008 5:47 PM
Need the cross-tabs from Suffolk to work through this Nevada poll. Supposed to be posted today.
Posted on September 22, 2008 6:46 PM
Yeah...the Publicans are gonna pay for that $700 billion "no-strings-attached" bailout of the Financial industry, and their perpetual wars (est. $1 trillion in Iraq...plus the ones that Palin and McCain are hot to start in Iran, Russia, Syria, and North Korea) without any tax increases.
Hah! They'll ust keep dumping it off on the next Administration (the deficit)...to be paid for when you guys are a few years older without any pension money left.
When the well runs dry...how are they gonna pay for bringin' the troops BACK home?
Posted on September 22, 2008 9:46 PM
There are already workers from California canvassing in Nevada. A young woman from San Diego knocked on my Henderson door last week. She was more prepared than my expectation, calling me by name and knowing I hadn't been at this residence very long. Overall I was impressed. She ran down the typical questions -- local races, political philosophy, differences in Henderson compared to other places I've lived.
The questions in Nevada are:
* Does Las Vegas turn out?
* How will Washoe vote?
The cow counties are a given and they'll swamp Obama in massive percentage and huge turnout.
If Obama wins nationally by 2-3% it should drag Nevada along. The state was already slightly blue in the partisan index in 2004. Democrats won four statewide races in 2006 after holding zero in 2004. The secretary of state is a Democrat, Ross Miller, son of former governor Bob Miller.
But the white males are very conservative here. And bigoted, in many cases. I can't quote some of the descriptions I've heard of Obama recently in Las Vegas sportsbooks. This state is anything but a cinch. Local political analysts like Jon Ralston always talk about the "Republican lock" on major statewide races.
But that's changing as the hispanic vote is becoming slightly more dependable, once more are registered into the process, or turn 18 to begin with.
NV-3 should have a very high turnout given the hotly contested House race between incumbent Jon Porter and challenger Dina Titus, the unsuccessful nominee for governor in 2006.
Posted on September 23, 2008 4:12 AM
Link above does not work. Also link from Suffolk site is broken. Does not say much about the Suffolk site? Anyone figured out the url for the cross-tabs?
Posted on September 23, 2008 6:14 PM
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