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NV: Obama 47, McCain 45 (MasonDixon-10/8-9)

Topics: PHome

Las Vegas Review-Journal / Mason Dixon
10/8-9/08; 625 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Nevada
Obama 47, McCain 45
(8/13-15: Obama 41, McCain 47)

 

Comments
Save US:

Baby Blue

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PortlandRocks:

Nice!

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OneAngryDwarf:

RCP's model is so weird. The state poll from today for ND hardly moves the needle here and at 538, but at RCP they now have the state as lean Obama.

They also have CO as a toss-up when obviously every poll out recently has O with a really decent lead there. What are they smoking?

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IndependentThinker:

McCain-Palin schedules show GOP playing defense
Posted: 11:18 AM ET

From CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney
McCain is campaigning in states he had hoped to have sewn up at this point in the race.
McCain is campaigning in states he had hoped to have sewn up at this point in the race.

(CNN) — John McCain and Sarah Palin are campaigning Monday in two states that haven't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in more than four decades, a clear indication the GOP ticket is scrambling to defend longtime Republican strongholds with only three weeks until Election Day.

But at a time when the McCain campaign had hoped to have shored up its support in the traditional red states, a string of new surveys show Obama has made significant gains there as voters become increasingly worried about the nation's financial woes.

McCain and Palin are set to hold a joint rally in Virginia Beach Monday morning before the two candidates split up, as the Republican nominee heads down to North Carolina as his running mate stays behind for more events in Virginia. It’s the first time McCain has made visits to either state in more than four months, and comes as a series of battleground surveys suggest his playing field is increasingly shrinking.

Obama/Biden 08
Let's get rid of those nasty republicans now

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sunnymi:

Two new Marist Polls show Sen. Barack Obama ahead of Sen. John McCain in key battleground states.

Ohio: Obama 49%, McCain 45%

Pennsylvania: Obama 53%, McCain 41%

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OneAngryDwarf:

So the Marist polls keep showing the trend that O is WAY ahead in PA and pulling ahead in OH.

Where does McCain play offense now? MN? MI?, WI?

He is defending a lot of turf and he seems to be running out of resources. Bad news for team McCain.

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carl29:

Previous Marist poll in PA:

Marist 09/11 - 09/15 535 LV Obama 49 McCain 44 Obama +5

Now:

Marist 10/05 - 10/08 757 LV Obama 53 McCain 41 Obama +12


Previous Marist poll in Ohio:

Marist 09/11 - 09/15 565 LV Obama 47 McCain 45 Obama +2

Now,

Marist 10/05 - 10/08 771 LV Obama 49 McCain 45 Obama +4

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carl29:

@OneAngryDwarf

"Where does McCain play offense now? MN? MI?, WI?"

MI is not longer on McCain's list. He has to look for EV's. At this time most people, even prominent Republicans in PA, agree that McCain's chances in the state are second to none. So, what else has he left? Look for other states. At this point, stopping is not a posibility. He is here and he's got to keep moving foward.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@carl29

Like taking money and flushing it down the toilet. You'd think he'd get smart and quietly take that money for some national air time or move it into a real battleground state.

Of course being smart isn't really what the McCain campaign seems to be about these days. Hope this trend continues and we get to see a "Reagan Revolution" on the Dems side.

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sotonightthatimightsee:

YOU GO MACKY BOY!!!!!!!!!!

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laguna_b:

What is interesting to me is that McCain and Palin are together instead of doubling coverage...could it be that he can't let her talk on her own? Maybe he needs her to help him on and off stage....

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OneAngryDwarf:

@laguna_b

If they sent him out by himself it would be similar to when O was in Europe. McCain would be doing the grocery store tour since "crowd hate" only follows Palin and her idiocy.

They really don't gain anything when McCain is by himself since no one bothers to show up if the eye-candy isn't there.

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faithhopelove:

M-D finds NV trending toward Obama--from a +6 McCain lead in August to a +2 Obama lead now.

A look at some of the internals of this poll reveals that it assumes a 50/50 male/female split in NV. Exit polls showed NV turnout to be 50/50 in 2006 and 48/52 in 2004. According to this poll, NV Hispanics favor Obama by only 20%. Today's Research 2000 tracker has Obama up 46 points with Hispanics nationwide. And a recent Latino-focused poll found Obama ahead by 49 points among Hispanics in NV; see:
http://www.pacificmarketresearch.com/ld/poll_battleground1.html

6 consecutive NV polls have shown Obama ahead there. There has been some indication that McCain has conceded the state, as he recently canceled an event in Reno and has not visited the state in months. At this time, McCain has no upcoming NV visits scheduled.

For insights into the new party registration advantage for Democrats in NV, the enthusiasm gap between Obama and McCain on the ground there, and the tendency of NV polls to be GOP-favorable, see:
http://politickernv.com/ddamore/2538/examining-nevadas-poverty-reliable-polling-what-about-cellphones

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Trosen:

The NV #s aren't as close as this poll indicates. That could change come election day, as the GOP has good organization and clout in the state, but I think in reality Obama is polling anywhere from 4-6 points ahead right now.

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Hoosier:

mcSlime and Barbie are playing defense on an increasingly shrinking field. It's simple math, folks: X + Y = 270

If X = Strong McSlime EVs (150 per this site)

then Y = McSlime needs 120 votes to win

as there are only 60 (or 47 is we subtract VA which should be blue by now) EVs left in the toss-up category, McCain playing defense only is not going to work. If he can't flip either OH or FL back to the Rethugs, it's over. Simple math, folks.

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billwy:

@laguna_b:
Since it is so late you may never see this, but I think they appear together because neither by themselves is a complete candidate. Palin was picked to ignite conservatives and possibly pick up some hillary women...plain and simple. He's in Virginia and NC. These are republican states showing Obama leading or tied. The theory is that if they can rebuild "reagan's house" they can shore up traditionally red states. I know this is just a blog, but knock off the personal insults...they are unbecoming. They appear together because they are truly most effective together.

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MNlatteliberal:

test

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