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NY-23: 2009 House (Neighborhood 10/25-26)


Neighborhood Research / Minuteman PAC*
10/25-26/09; 366 likely voters, 4.8% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(TPM post)

*Minuteman PAC has endorsed Doug Hoffman for Congress

New York 23rd Congressional District

2009 House: Special Election
Doug Hoffman (C) 34%, Bill Owens (D) 29%, Dede Scozzafava (R) 14% (chart)

 

Comments
Stillow:

The GOP makes me so angry. Scozzafava is a liberal, probably more liberal than Owens. Hell I saw Owens go after Scozzafava for being to tax happy.....I hope Hoffman wins this to teach the GOP a lesson. Get back to conservatism. The latest Gallup poll showed 40 percent of the country is conservtive, only 20 liberal. We outnumber these nutty liberals 2 to 1....yet the liberals have totally taken over the Democratic party....so conservatives better take back the GOP if they want to win races.

You do not contrast a liberal democrat with a liberal republican....you contrast with a conservative republican. If people want a liberal they will go with the real one, the democrat. Wake up GOP, almost half the country is conservative....we outnumber the libs by a ton...sowake up and start putting up conservatives again. Its working in VA....and one could argue it sworking in NJ....people want conservatives, so give them better candidates then dems in GOP clothing like Scozzafava .

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sjt22:

Nice one team Hoffman. The Owens people release a highly suspect, partisan endorsed poll which everyone laughs at. Not content to laugh along with them, the Hoffman supporters release a similar joke poll of their own.

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sjt22:

@ Stillow

The reason that "sonservatives" outnumber "liberals" by so much is that Republicans have waged a long and successful campaign to turn the word "liberal" into a slur. Hence a lot of people who actually prefer liberal policies and vote for Democrats actually identify as "independent" (or even as conservatives).

Many true liberals consider the Dems too conservative (not to mention gutless), but they side with the lesser of two evils.

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sjt22:

Ahem, conservatives. Not sure what a "sonservative" is but I doubt I'd like it.

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Stillow:

sjt22

Nice spin, but the fact is conservatives are a vast majoirty out there. Liberals simply have a louder voice because ultra libs like Pelosi and Obama controlthe Dem party. Plus the media has aliberal bias to it overall....but conservatives...normal america out there are conservative. They want conservative candidates and they want conservative leadership.

But with the GOP at war with itself thinking that slightly less liberal liberls can beat liberal democrats....then there is no way conservatives can thrive. The GOP needs to decide if they want to be a party of wanna be libs or if they want to be the party of conservatives and the reprsent the majoiryt of this country. The GOP has been bleeding membership from conservatives like me because they seem to be angling towards becoming wanna be liberals. That will be there death if they stick with that path........

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Stillow:

Its the same thing the GOP went thru i nthe 1970's. The party under Nixon became a leftist party, big g'ment invovlement, poor fiscal policy, etc. Reagan came along as an unapologetic conservative who articulated conservative ideaology. He moved the party right...he almost single handedly turned the GOP into a conservative party, despite the party establishment not wanting it to. The party establishment then and now despised Reagan.

They invoke his name due to his popularity, but they hated him. If party "leaders" selected the nominee, Reagan would not have won the primary in 1980. Reagan tapped into the conservative majoirty in this country and when he went one on one vs a liberal democrat he crushed both carter and mondale. Its not even lcose when a true conservative is pitted against a true liberal. Its a total blow out.

Clinton won in 92 because he campaigned as a new democrat, a centrist democrat...plus Perot helped him, but Clinton moderated the party and was successful....Bush moved the GOP left and lost support...Obama moved the Dems way left now......the setting is primed for a genuine articulate conservative to step up. If the GOP keeps doing this wanna be liberal crap, they will die.

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platanoman:

They want conservative government? Sure. Explain to me why isn't Marco Rubio crushing Charlie Christ? Why has the Republican party has not nominated what they think is a conservative since Reagan? Maybe because they know that person can't win.

When you are running for government, no voter wants to hear this "government is not the solution" campaign. Just face it not everyone loves your message.

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platanoman:

" Its not even lcose when a true conservative is pitted against a true liberal. Its a total blow out."

So explain why CLUB FOR GROWTH endorsed candidate, Steve Pierce lost big time to a Democrat? Tom Udall was a part of the Progressive Caucus. And let's not forget Sherod Brown, another progressive winning in Ohio of all places

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Aaron_in_TX:

"Conservative" is a highly subjective term. So is "liberal."

I find the positions of some "conservatives" to be anything but. For example, some conservatives want to dismantle medicaid and medicare. That isn't conservative, it's a radical change. Some conservatives want to overturn Roe v Wade - established precedent for almost 40 years. Again, this is not conserving the status quo - it's a call to radically change it.

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Stillow:

platanoman

Becaus eyou ninny, the GOP establishment is not conservative. They are big g'ment conservatives. They hated Reagan back in the 1970's. They thought he would destory the party and all he did was go on to win one of the biggest landslides in history. Candidates like Rubio in FL don't get backing fro mthe establishment. And i nthe absence of a conservative establishment, its hard for them to geet traction.

You can spin it all you want, conseratives outnumber loony libs 2 to 1. But the establishment of both parties is big g'ment stuff. It takes a really good candidate who can articualte and connect with the average american, someone like a Reagan, Insteaad the GOP puts up phony ocnservatives and liberals...Bush wa a fiscal liberal...McCain was anything but conservative. Wanna be liberalism won't win election.

Reagan provided the formula for how to kick the crap out of liberals in elections, but the stupid GOP establishment has it in there head that going left is the answer. Which is why they are shrinking every day.......

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platanoman:

Yes, because it's really hard to beat very unpopular president like Carter. That forumula? Reagan won because there was a Republican presence in states like New York, New Jersey, CT, and California. Now, they don't even try in those states. ocrats will always have a chance to win.

You have to be a national party and that's why they NEED people like Snowe and Collins. Otherwise, there will be no GOP presence in those states.

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Stillow:

Ok lets see...we have a conservative backed by the party in VA and he kicking the snot out of the Dem...in a state won by Obama.

We have a conservative backed by the party in NJ and is leading in most polls against an incumbant Democrat governor in a state Obama won.
Hmmmmm, ya I'd say conservatives have no shot....riiiiiiiiiight.

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Xenobion:

If you're a conservative that spends alot, it doesn't make you a liberal, sorry. It all depends on what that conservative is spending on. Typically a lot of guns and conservative pork programs. We call these Neoconservatives btw, and they pretty much control the Republican party now.

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Wong:

Forty percent does not a majority make, Stillow. Granted they outnumber liberals by tow to one but so what? What is self-evident is that the other 40% is not conservative. The Democratic presidential candidate has won the popular vote 4 of the last five presidential elections. The 2004 presidential election was decided on the war on terror, I would argue, not conservatism.

Again to make a point, 60% of the population is NOT conservative.

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Stillow:

X, someone who sepnds money on the federal level that is wasteful is a liberal...that is what they do, they are more liberal with money. They will always find a need for money the g'ment collects...and not a need to collect money.

Conservatives are o nthe rise....NJ is a perfect example...a blue state, a voter registration advantage for Dems of soemthing like 700,000, yet the conservative leads in most polls...and even if he loses, it will be razor thin.Dems have lost VA this year, they are clinging to life in NJ...who knows what will happen in NY 23 with the gop vote being split. True conservatives win races, wanna be liberals lose races.

Just how it is.

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Stillow:

Wong
They are not liberal either. The other 40 percent shift back and forth depending o nthe quality of candidate. Clinton never reached 50....I don't think Gore did either did he? Obama only got to 52.9. Many of those Indy's out there are waiting for a quality conservative leader to emerge....they just haven't had one for a long long time....Dole? Bush? McCain? Come on................

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Gopherguy:

The problem with conservative, liberal, and moderate labels are that they don't identify party affiliation.

Stillow equates conservative to mean a conservative republican. However, conservative can mean conservative democrat or conservative republican. Without party identification these labels become worthless and Stillow's arguments become moot.

In any event this is not a liberal or conservative country it is a moderate country. People are conservative in the respect that they like stability and they want to retain certain values. However, over time the country comes to see inequality in the statues quo so it decides to make progress and change some of its values.

Claiming that the United States is an ideologically a conservative country is laughable on its face. If that were true, the New Deal and The Great Society never could have occurred.

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Farleftandproud:

The people in this District of NY are extremely stupid. I honestly could care less who wins. No Democrat has won in this district since the Civil war. I have been to that area and it is mostly redneck white trash, so expectedly, Sarah Palin, Fred Thompson and Marilyn Musgrave, that bitch from Colorado who never even had the courtesy to concede even after a year, belong in this district. If you ever go there you'll see the affect of the GOP ruling class. I can't believe these people are actually New Yorkers.

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Farleftandproud:

This District of NY is in the Dark Ages. It is obviously a GOP district because it has the lowest per capita income in the state.

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Farleftandproud:

I was up in that area a few years back and after seeing Watertown NY and seeing the neighboring towns in Canada the contrast was astounding. Americans make things too damn hard on themselves when it comes to fighting government and getting paranoid about the federal government taking their guns away. I find that in these small rural towns I have been in especially rural PA and other places, the people fear government and think that Obama will ban hanguns. I have looked conservatives in the face and told them I am not going to take their f...guns away, but nothing I say will change the mind of the paranoid conservative. I don't recall any difference between declines in gun sales during the Clinton administration to the Bush administration. It is pointless though for me to argue with these people, but it is indeed the ultimate brainwashing.

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Farleftandproud:

The 40 percent of Americans identifying themselves as conservatives is accurate. In some states like Alabama, Kansas and Texas, conservatives are like 50 percent.

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Louis:

Stillow,
New York is not Alabama or even Michigan or Ohio.
Scozafava record in the New York house put her just the right of the average Republican legislator. There is no way Hoffman in that district could win in a two way election. It would be like the Democrats slating Mary Landrieu for Governor of California.
As for the Conservative, liberal issue. Just asking people to pick a label is a meaningless exercise since you will get people to identify themselves as Conservative or liberal for whom the words mean very different things, A more interesting poll would be to ask a series of questions based on core values and assign the labels from the answers . Alas that is a whole lot harder for pollsters to do so we may never get to see it.

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shakytowndem:

These silly attempts to paint the US as "right of center" or predominantly conservative are a bit naive. Forget the partisan polls and the pundit spin. The only poll that matters, at least for now, is the big national poll we all participated in last November - Election Day. The results of November's election simply do not reflect a conservative majority. Of course, Nixon believed there was a "silent" majority of conservatives, but I sure hope the Republicans aren't dusting off that old bit of nonsense. If conservatives win decisively in 2010, then you can say all you like about the new conservative majority. But right now, it's nothing more than wishful thinking. Go for it, Republicans, support the most conservative candidates you can find. Secure your base and alienate everyone else.

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Farleftandproud:

Most of rural upstate NY tends to be a battleground. There are liberals, conservatives but a lot of people in the middle. The 23rd district however is very much like Kansas. You would not believe it was the northeast people are so conservative. I have made calls for Democratic candidates to NH, PA, OH, VA and Fl without hesitation but when I was asked by the Obama team to make calls to this district I refused. It is a cushy seat for any Republican.

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