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NY-23: 2009 House Special (Kos 10/26-28)


DailyKos.co (D) / Research 2000
10/26-28/09; 600 likely voters, 45 margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kos release)

New York 23rd Congressional District

Favorable / Unfavorable
Dede Scozzafava (R): 32 / 46
Doug Hoffman (C): 38 / 23
Bill Owens (D): 36 / 26

2009 Congress: Special Election
33% Owens, 32% Hoffman, 21% Scozzafava (chart)

 

Comments
platanoman:

woah close one there. i really don't care who wins though.

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tjampel:

Republicans abandoning one of their own; she's broke and fading fast. Lots of support and money for Hoffman. He's become THE litmus test for all 2012 Repub contenders, as proven by Pawlenty.

Maybe those in the 23rd will wake up and realize that Hoffman knows absolutely nothing about their district, as reported in the local paper up there (when interviewed by the paper he claimed that these things weren't important; that national issues were what mattered). Additionally maybe they will realize that Hoffman doesn't even live in their district.

Overall if Hoffman wins and it sends a message to all Repubs to get out or move right it might make the losses Dems expect to suffer next year smaller. Center-right is not hard right. Independents may be pretty much like Scozzafava, actually. She's a financial conservative, generally, and a social liberal.

I think Owens will win....barely if he uses the above reports properly in Ads; they've occurred at the right time (unlike with Deeds) and can serve to plant seeds of doubt about Hoffman. Interestingly, Hoffman also previously had sought earmarks, which he now condemns (well....Palin was the Queen of earmarks while mayor of Wassila and on into her truncated term as Gov.)

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Stillow:

They make medications for addiction. You libs cannot let Palin go. Every race or a discussion on anything has to involve an attack on Palin. Please check with your local pharmacy, maybe a patch or soemthing exists you can wear.

Scozzafava is a liberal. She supports boneheaded things like cap and trade....why would republicans vote for that? If Jim Demint switches parties to Democrat, you telling me you nutty libs would go vote for him? Hell you guys can't even stand lieberman, you want him out of the caucus and away fro mthe party.

Hoffman is surging and will overtake owens on election day.

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Farleftandproud:

I was surprised at how moderate the GOP candidate was. If I lived in this district, I think I may actually support her.

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011121:

While it would be nice to see the internals I think we can take this as confirmation that the previous two small GOP surveys were not hugely exaggerated- there has been movement from the (R) candidate to Hoffman.

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Field Marshal:

"I was surprised at how moderate the GOP candidate was. If I lived in this district, I think I may actually support her."

If you really compare her and Owens, she is more liberal than he is. Owens is kinda of like a Lieberman liberal.

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StillowLIES:

I'd just like to comment on my display name StillowLIES yes it is aimed at Pollster's infamous far right Stillow. However Stillow dont take it personal just your comments need some fact checking.

If the people of the 23rd elect Hoffman they are electing a Republican period he will most likely join the party once hes in office. But that wont happen... TWO Republican candidates will merely split the vote. I predict Owens win s by 5 points

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platanoman:

Remember when Stillow said Dailykos polls were biased? Now, he's loving this poll. Hahaha. Typical of Palin-loving, Gop-Partisan Hypocrite.

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Field Marshal:

Every poll is biased according to liberals.

Ras is too republican. Likely voters polls too many reps. blah blah blah...

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StillowLIES:

There probably should be a FeildMarshalLIES too

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Field Marshal:

And a 'StillowLIES LIES'

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bongocongo:

If this race comes down to two Liberals versus one Conservative, the Conservative will win.
If it turns out to be One Democrat versus Two Rebublicans, then the Democrat will win.
It certainly looks like the winner will get less than 40% of the vote, however.

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Mark Blumenthal:

"StillowLIES: I'd just like to comment on my display name StillowLIES yes it is aimed at Pollster's infamous far right Stillow."

"StillowLIES: There probably should be a FeildMarshalLIES too."

"Field Marshal: And a 'StillowLIES LIES'"

Intelligent and civil, this is not.

A reminder of our comment policy:

2) Don't pick an a screenname that is, itself, profane or abusive of other commenters. Doing so is grounds for being banned."

"StillowLIES," you are more than welcome to post here, but please pick another screen name.


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Stillow:

I guess I am flattered.

Why is it you libs define moderate as everyone who agrees with you? From a libs perspective a moderate is someone who supports everything they do. Anything else is a far right wing nutcase.

Hoffman is the only real republican in the race, the voters will vote for him next week. I'm still waiting to see you Dems and all your Lieberman posters!!

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tjampel:

The comments about Palin relate to her huge earmark requests while Gov of Alaska and mayor of Wassila, ; McCain personally referred to Wassila as an example of earmark abuse.

McCain supported cap and trade, as you may remember

Hoffman previously requeted earmarks and then condemned them. Some think that to be hypocrisy, and he's following in others (Palin, most notably) footsteps. Facts are facts and Palin's earmarks were the highest per capita in the nation when she was Gov and probably same when she was mayor as well (though I don't have stats to prove that one.

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Gopherguy:

So are Eisenhower Republicans no longer "Real" Republicans?

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Xenobion:

Lieberman is an independent last I checked and ideologies do change over time for parties or did I forget which party still supports slavery and prohibition?

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Truthseeker:

Stillow:
Lieberman is to the left of the most leftist RINOs in Congress on most domestic issues. I know that McCain loved him. Do you?

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Stillow:

So what....what does mccain have to do with this race in NY? Who cares what McCain does or says....this is a local NY race...Palin lives 3500 miles away in Alaska....who gives a crap if she ordered statues of Captain Picard to be built all over Alaska......this race is about NY 23....you have owes, hoffman and a crazy liberal. If there was a primary Hoffman would have won it.

Despite what you libs think, moderates are not loony liberals. People who agree with Obama for example are moderates......eveyrone else is a far right loon. Come on people...get a clue. When the gop candidate i na race is more left than the democrat....then there's a freakin problem with the GOP.................

Why be a republican if your nominees are left of the dang democrat in the race? The GOP keeps putting up these tax raising big g'ment candidates and then wonder why htey lose....geeee, probably because if some one wants a liberal, they will vote for the real thing.

liberal does = moderate. What am I? Am I a moderate...I am fiscally conservative, but socially pretty liberal as its defined presently.......does that mean all of you who call me a far right nut al lthe time are wrong?

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Louis:

This is not a particularly conservative district. Obama favorables 50-42. the last two Republicans, Mchugh and certainly Bohlert are probably too "liberal" for Stillow. Democrats choice of Owens is hard to figure and the conservatives will be motivated to vote for Hoffman. My guess if the Democrats have any kind of a ground game Owens will win. If Hoffman wins he will face opposition in the Republican primary next time and probably lose to a competent moderate Democrat. Except in exceptional cases like the extremly articulate and likable Jack Kemp, New York Republicans have always been "Rockefeler" Republicans( exuse me for swearing Stillow). Most of upstate New York actually gave Reagan lower totals in 1984 than they did in 1980. If you don't adjust your candidates to area in which your running to some extent, you won't win.

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Stillow:

Right, so lets nominate people left of the democratic candidates.......that's real smart. Lets just betray everything the party stands for and become a liberal party too....then we can all live in one big happy liberal utopia.

Geeez, its like talking to a piece of wood.

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havoc:

Louis:

Bohlert did not represent this district. He was from the 24th district. This is a pretty conservitve district. Far more conservitive that DEDE.

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tjampel:

Stillow

You attacked my including Palin here as a typical liberal who always trots out Palin; fact is that I don't. This is forum is usually for discussing races, trends, polls. that's what I generally do. You expound your views on politics far more than I do.

In NY 23 it's appropriate to discuss those who are supporting Hoffman, as well as the candidate himself.

Palin endorsed Hoffman and BOTH she and Hoffman are hypocrites on earmarks; both loved them before they were against them. Palin IS the reigning queen of earmarks (per capita) for the two previous years as Gov.

Hoffman is on the board of the Adirondack Medical Center which in 2008 requested and received over $400000 in earmarks. To get the support of Club for Growth he signed a pledge to oppose all earmarks.

Palin of course did the same thing after signing on to McCain's campaign, after having been singled out by McCain in one of his anti-earmark speeches for loving her pork while mayor of Wassila AK.

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Stillow:

tjampel

I'm just pointing out that your stuck on Palin...she isn't running, yet almost a year after defeating her, you still cannot resist to attack her. Like I said, try a pill or a patch or soemthing.........time to "move on" as they say..........


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Louis:

Havoc,
the cook PVI is republican +1 hardly a staunch Republican district. Because of redistricting in 2003 you are correct that the 23 rd Bohlert represented before being redistricted into the 24th was somewhat different than this district
there was some overlap though.
Actualy for a district that is 97% white it is not very conservative at all. While DEDE is "liberal" on certain hot button social issues her record in the state legislature was slightly to right of the NY Republican center.
What Hoffman has going for him is that special elections always have a much lower turnout and
his voters are highly motivated. Owen is not an exciting candidate.
None the less I suspect Owen will win this primary and win a head to head race with Hoffman in next years general. Only time will tell.

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RAG2:

@ trampjel:
Rick Santorum was a lot like Hoffman. He "represented" my state (PA), but actually LIVED in VA!

@ Stillow:
It seems that you're a hard-core conservative ideologue with no tolerence for a "big tent" mentality. Y'know, I'm stauncly liberal, but I'm not a purist. I've supported lots of candidates with whom I disagreed on specific issues, even many. You don't build majorities with litmus tests.

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RAG2:

@ bongocongo:

Not in NY, it's a blue state--and notoriously liberal. Y'know, you right-wingers are getting over-confident about your alleged popularity over liberals--just like we were in the '60s. Politics runs in cycles, and you've had your high point already with Bush 43. You know, voters under 30--who have turned out in greater and greater numbers since 2000, nearly putting John Kerry into the WH (has was only 2.46% short--the most narrowly-defeated challenger ever), and putting Barack Obama there--are actually more likely to call themselves "liberal" than "conservative", and vote overwhelmingly Democratic. You'd better hope they don't turn out en masse in 2010. And they're the future of the electorate--in 20 or 30 years, "Conservative America" may well be a thing of the distant past.

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havoc:

Louis:

With respect I think you are wrong about her being to the right of the NY GOP center. She had a 15% rating on her votes from a conservitive group. That put her to the left of over 40 dems in the state house.

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Louis:

Check out 539's article on this. admittedly there
are a number of ways to calculate where someone falls on this level.

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