Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

NY-23: Hoffman 42 Owens 34 (NOM 11/1-2)


National Organization for Marriage* / QEV Analytics
11/1-2/09; 318 likely voters, 5.5% margin of error
Mode: live telephone interviews
(NOM release)

*National Organization for Marriage has endorsed Doug Hoffman for Congress

New York 23rd Congressional District

2009 House: Special Election
42% Hoffman, 34% Owens, 16% Scozzafava (chart)

 

Comments
adocarbog:

Could be really close there tonight. Although I do not expect Dems to pick this up after 70 straight GOP wins (140 years) in a row for the GOP

____________________

Xenobion:

While I do not dispute the National Organization of Marriage's polling results for the election, reading thier blog leaves everything else they report highly suspect.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

I know that Plattsburgh being close to Burlington VT has fortunately picked up some of that progressive political thought from commuting there, but as you go west towards Watertown, it is about the most conservative district anywhere in the northeast.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

I can understand conservative protestant groups getting involved with defining marriage as between a man and a woman, but when it comes to the Catholic church, with priests not marrying at all, I find their objection to same sex marriages reprehensible. What do they know about marrriage?

____________________

Field Marshal:

"I can understand conservative protestant groups getting involved with defining marriage as between a man and a woman, but when it comes to the Catholic church, with priests not marrying at all, I find their objection to same sex marriages reprehensible. What do they know about marrriage?"

One of the dumbest comments i have seen in a long time.

adocarbog,

Hoffman is not a GOP candidate, he is the conservative party's candidate.

____________________

Stillow:

The key in this race will be to see if Owens can break the high watermark for a Dem...which I beleive is 38 percent.

____________________

jack:

Mark Blumenthal, owner of Pollster.com, screwed up by predicting a win by Hoffman and by not telling you that the PPP poll conducted a few days ago (with Hoffman +17) was incredibly flawed, according to real election results already online.

____________________

Xenobion:

I think Owens broke the high water mark. Palin love must have not been there.

____________________

Stillow:

ya, I expected this to be reversed. I think if Hoffman was the GOP nominee, he would have won...the GOP really bungled this one up there.

But i am still happy with the night as the two big prizes went to the GOP...how about that christie win by 4.4? Who was it on here who everyone laughed at for predicting a christie win by 4????????? Who was dat guy?

____________________

RussTC3:

So two for the Democrats (CA-10 and NY-23) and two for the Republicans (NJ Gov and VA Gov).

At the end of the day, the Democrats gained two seats in the House.

Heh. That's kinda funny.

____________________

platanoman:

you mean they gain one seat in ny-23, russ. but, i get what you are saying. i am surprised Owens won. This shows rightwing hacks like Stilow that New York state is totally different from those conservative nutters from the south.

____________________

RussTC3:

Maybe gain is the best word to use, but technically they did gain two seats.

CA-10 was a Dem seat, but it was vacant due to an appointment to the Obama administration (same goes with NY-23).

____________________

Stillow:

lol....is that the spin? ny 23 went ownes cus the gop screwed the whole thing up...even carville tonight said ownes will almsot certianly lose in 2010. The gop will nominate a real reupblican next time....

The two big prizes went to the gop......the gold cup going to the gop in NJ.....

____________________

RussTC3:

^^That should read "isn't the best...".

____________________

RussTC3:

Half-spin. The fact of the matter is the Democrats gained two additional seats in the House (one hold/one gain).

While the Republicans gained two Governor seats.

____________________

Stillow:

CA 10 was not competitive race....it wasn't even on anyones radar. NY 23 was only on the radar cus the gop screwed it up. In 2010 there will be a normal gop primary and a normal republican will emerge and defeat owens. Hoffman got 45 percent....the republicans who voted for scozzy an thsoe who voted dem at scozzy's request out of party loyalty will come abck home. Even the liberal talking heads aren't thinking ny 23 is that big a deal.

the big deals are VA and NJ...how many months on this site did you loony libs tell me christie cannot win? No republican has won since wittman and that was by 1 point....NJ cannot go to a conservative, blah blah....ya'll beat me up over my 4 point win prediction......well, I'm feeling pretty good tonight.

____________________

RussTC3:

Good for you. But the fact remains, Dem +1 in the House.

But I also don't think it's very smart for anyone, Democrat or Republican, to look too much into this night.

Remember always, politics is local.

____________________

Stillow:

I'll tell you my only disappointment of the night is that it looks like Maine is going to remove the right for same sex coupls to marry. We have to balme btoh libs and cons for this.....why on earth they think they can tell others how to live is beyond me....Maine screwed this up......very unfortunate!

____________________

Xenobion:

Break-even Dems & Repubs, but I'll give Repubs that they won the higher profile seats.

I love you all. Goodnight.

____________________

Stillow:

russ, i know you gotta stick to the left wing spin, but outside the hard core partisans like us bloggers, I think the general consensus is that the GOP has a much better night than the dems. The two high profile races went to the GOP...and the golden goose was really NJ. Obama pressed hard for corzine there....I think a lot of people are still in shock that a conservative republican won the governorship of NJ in the year 2009......crazy!

____________________

Stillow:

I think the public option in health care reform died tonight. Blue Dogs see NJ and VA and I think they just fell off the fence they were sitting on and are now going to move against the public option.

You guys are bumbs Maine!!!!!!!!!!11

____________________

platanoman:

New York 23 is going to be redistricted. So it's going to be a different district. Stillow said that the conservative was going to win. They had the wave. Where's the wave?

____________________

Stillow:

Uhhh, NJ and VA...........

____________________

RussTC3:

Sorry, but like Georgia earlier in the year, it's pretty dumb to take the results of a few races and spread them across the rest of the country. Vocal Minority does not equal Silent Majority.

Christie beat Corzine because he was the better candidate. McDonnell beat Deeds because he was the better candidate. Etc.

President Obama's approval rating among those who voted today (a less Dem-friendly demographic) was equal to the vote he received in 2008.

Oh and the Blue Dogs are a non factor. Deeds' big loss is proof of that. And health care reform, with a robust public option, will happen. Count on it.

____________________

openid.aol.com/Rahmsputin:

Actually, the Democrats just picked up two more House votes for the public option.

Hoffman, baby, Hoffman!

VA and NJ are mild disappointments from a partisan perspective, but I don't live in either state so my interest is admittedly pretty limited. I'm sure that sentiment is shared by the various congress critters. Warner and McGreevey won those states big in 2001, after all, and I don't remember any sudden rush to get Bush to "scale back" NCLB or his plans for Iraq. The House bill will pass easily this month, and these local races will be forgotten sooner than that. Reps should enjoy their hard-earned gloating, but I wouldn't get my hopes up.

____________________

RussTC3:

While it's nice that the Dems gained two more seats in the House to help pass health care reform, I'm also happy tonight because here in Ohio we passed Issue 3 (Casinos).

:)

____________________

openid.aol.com/Rahmsputin:

That's true, RussTC3. It's important to note that Deeds is a Blue Dog who opposes the public option. On the other hand, Owens is a Blue Dog who supports the public option, and he won in much more hostile territory (albeit, against a far less formidable opponent).

The lesson here is this: Off-year elections are base elections. If you don't energize your base with a positive message based on your party's core values, you lose.

And while he lost, I think Hoffman's relatively strong performance is also a testament to that... considering he basically split his party and had to contend with the fact that the GOP candidate endorsed the Dem, it's really pretty impressive to see a complete novice keep the race so tight. That is almost certainly an expression of what the base can do for you in a low turnout election. Of course, if the NY-23 saga happened in 2008, Owens would have won by 10+ points easily.

____________________

Stillow:

Did you see in both VA and NJ, the republican candidates got a higher percentage of the vote than Bush got in 2004? New high watermarks were set tonight. it shows both these states are willing to vote for republicans if the candidiates are good. You cannot call christie a bad one, cus he got a hair under 50 percent and beat the sitting governor.

Christie defeated an incumbant Dem who obama was out stumping for. He defeated the democratic machine which has urn NJ forever.

NJ is the stunner tonight. I know you dems need to hang your hat on ny23, but the big stunner is NJ. Christie and Mcdonnell outperformed Bush...and also Corzine and deeds did much worse than Obama did.

One year ago, anyone claiming a conservative republican would win NJ would have been laughed out of the room....and you libs know it.

____________________

Stillow:

What we have not commented on is how many pollsters totally blew NJ. Dagget dropped well below his polling and it helped Christie as much of us suspected it would. rasmussen was the closest I think predicting 46-43 for Christie....lot of the live interview pollsters totally blew this race in NJ.

____________________

RussTC3:

From the Virginia exit poll:

In the 2008 election for president, did you vote for:

Barack Obama - 43%
John McCain - 51%

Dems had better things to do than come out in support of Deeds.

____________________

platanoman:

I don't think they "blew it". That's why they have a margin of error of 3 or so.

____________________

RussTC3:

Yup, polling was way off in NJ. But I still don't trust IVR.

For instance PPP and Rasmussen had the President's approval in the low 50s or below -- PPP's last poll had it at 47% -- yet according to the exit poll he had 58% approval among the NJ voters.

So they got it okay on the vote between Corzine and Christie, but really missed the mark on approval for the President. Considering how off the mark PPP and Rasmussen are from everyone else in their approval rating standing for the president, they better figure out what they're doing wrong.

____________________

openid.aol.com/Rahmsputin:

Stillow, you need to relax. NJ was a hard-earned victory by the GOP, and they should be proud. However, Politico reported that NY-23 was the race that congress was watching (since it was, obviously, a congressional race in a swing district), and Dems picked up 2 more public option votes... so while NJ is definitely a big story, it's less relevant in terms of national politics.

With that said, there are two small problems with your analysis:

First, as I said above, off-year elections are base elections. While McDonnell won by a higher margin than either Bush or Obama, he did not get as many votes. Here are the vote totals below:

McDonnell: 1,142,397
Bush (2004): 1,716,959
Obama (2008): 1,958,370

Second, Christine Todd Whitman was governor of NJ not too long ago, so Republicans can definitely compete there locally, especially if the incumbent has approval ratings in the basement. In fact, if Corzine had gone up against someone like Whitman, he would have lost like Deeds.

Republicans definitely have reason to celebrate tonight, but let's not get carried away.

____________________

Stillow:

openid.aol.com/Rahmsputin:

Like I said, I know you guys have to go with the spin being put out by the left....but outside the liberal pool out there and some liberl media, the news for the coming months will be NJ and VA. We will all do our spin, but your average person will see NJ as the big story from tonight as it was clearly the high profile race of the evening.

All and all, except for the dopy people in Maine, it was a good night from my perspective. I am really really disappointed in Maine.....actually kind of angry.

Anyway, its been fun guys...I am off as I have early meetings all dang morning.

Lets enjoy the holiday season and then the 2010 campaings kicking off in january!

gonna be a great year!

____________________

openid.aol.com/Rahmsputin:

but your average person will see NJ as the big story from tonight

Heh, honestly, I don't think the average person outside of NJ/NY will ever know who Chris Christie is. We'll see, I suppose.

____________________

Gopherguy:

I think what is best to take from this night is that ALL politics are local. Voters did not vote for a conservative or liberal ideology. They voted for issues and values pertinent to them.

People in different parts of the country come from different walks of life and believe different things.

Conservatism was rejected today in a reddish district. A democrat was defeated in a blue state. A republican won in a purple state. Sounds like local politics at its finest.

Clearly certain ideologies can't win in any district. Messages need to be tailored, amended, and fit to the constituents who hear them.

This idea that conservatism will prevail when given a clear distinction from another ideology is fraudulent and laughable on its face.

____________________

Aaron_in_TX:

Is Christie really that conservative? I heard his victory speech and he seemed to say things I agree with. The same goes when I heard him during the campaign. I'm a fairly liberal person, so if he was a staunch conservative I don't think I would feel that way. Maybe that, or I'm turning republican, who knows?

McDonnell, while I recognized him as the clearly superior candidate, did not say a lot that I liked. But he knew what he was talking about and Deeds sounded inept most of the time.


____________________

LordMike:

Stillow,

Gotta give you props... You predicted Christie by 4 and you nailed it! You were dead on! Good work, sir! :-)

In the short run, the loss in Jersey hurts the Dems 'cos of messaging. The MSM will say how bad it is for Obama and the Dems, blah blah... Well, it's hard to re-elect a guy who had a 37% approval rating even before Obama was elected, yet managed to overperform and get 45% of the vote. Corzine got every vote that he was expected to get. Unfortunately, the Daggett voters did not come through for us.

In the longer run, it will be better for Dems and NJ. Christie is probably going to get indicted for something at some point in his term, and the his corrupt days as a Bush lackey will not leave him. He could not even manage to get a majority despite Corzine's massive unpopularity. If he lasts a term, Jersey will manage to get another, much better candidate to replace him the next time around.

In VA, Democrats stayed home 'cos Deeds told them to stay home. He actively insulted the base in a base election year--incredibly dums strategy! His DLC, Repbulican-Lite campaign is not a winning formula, ever. Obama proved that last year, or so we thought. Deeds learned nothing of the lessons of 2008. Unfortunately, the conservadems will probably not learn the lesson this time around, either, and they will lose in 2010 as a result. the Rahm Emanuel campaign path is a guarantee of defeat. If it's a choice between a Republican and Republican-Lite, the voters will go for the full flavored version.

Even though the media will insist on their never ending "Obama is failing" message, it's rather unfair to paste this one on the president when you had two absolutely awful candidates on the ballot. Obama didn't pick these guys, and he actually tried to push Corzine out, but you're stuck with what you have and you make the best of it.

That being said, NY-23 was a pleasant surprise. I couldn't believe my eyes. I guess the voters there didn't like being yelled at by crazed teabaggers. Moderate voters rejected Palinism during a time of great difficulty for the Democratic party. That gives me a lot of hope for this country, that we won't fall off the cliff like Germany did in the 30's... I was getting worried that moderates would start to accept the crazed Teabagger nutjobs... But, the public rejected them last year and continue to reject them. Thank goodness!

It should be noted that the NY-23 special election was the ONLY national election on the ballot and the ONLY one that made Obama the central issue. Nationally, Dems swept their house races and added to their majority. Of course, you won't hear that on the evening news.

You support for equality in Maine is to be commended. But, you should be aware that such enlightened attitudes would get you kicked out of the modern conservative movement. You may want to reconsider your allegiance to them...

So, a bad night overall, but the NY-23 surprise will help keep the GOP in strife for awhile, so that's a good thing at least.

____________________

Aaron_in_TX:

Just a few observations regarding the polls for these races:

Survey USA was by far the most accurate. They called NJ and VA almost dead to rights. Rasmussen was also pretty close in NJ. He was also very close in NJ in 2008, one of the few state results he came close on. Rasmussen was not so great in VA, where he underestimated McDonnell for some reason. But local pollsters Roanoke College and VCU also came pretty close in VA. Others were fairly far off.

PPP was off on both. Haha, I can't stand them.

No one, and I mean no one, accurately predicted NY-23. PPP predicted Hoffman by 17. Haha, PPP you suck. Siena was off, but by the least amount and picked the right winner.

All pollsters seriously underestimated the D candidate in the NYC mayoral race. Again, Survey USA was the closest, but that's not saying much.

Survey USA was within striking distance in their one poll of CA-10, which no one else bothered to poll. Overall, I think they deserve a round of applause.

Takeaways: Rasmussen is good at NJ polling. Survey USA was highly accurate in 2008, they proved themselves again. Local pollsters should also not be discounted.

____________________

Cyril Washbrook:

@LordMike: you can take whatever ideological readings you want from the VA race, but some are more frivolous than others. The bottom line is that VA just isn't that liberal. Mark Warner is very much a centrist Democrat: are you saying that he wouldn't succeed in VA?

Oh, hang on a moment: Warner won the 2008 Senate election by 30 points over Jim Gilmore. If you want to draw any lessons from the 2008 election in Virginia last year, it's that there may have been a reverse coat-tail effect: in other words, Mark Warner's high level of support dragged up Obama's numbers. And Warner and Webb got elected to the Senate because they were able to synthesise moderate stances on social and civil rights issues with pro-business, fiscally conservative positions on economic policy.

Creigh Deeds didn't fail because he wasn't liberal enough - you're sounding like a mirror image of the Republicans who insist that John McCain or [insert any defeated Republican candidate here] failed because he wasn't conservative enough. If the Democratic leadership listened to the netroots, the Democratic Party would find itself within a few years in exactly the place where the GOP is at the moment: red-faced, ideologically intolerant, and losing unlosable Senate races by picking staunch ideologues instead of electable candidates. Deeds failed because he ran a poor campaign which relied on a half-baked October Surprise which emerged in August and wasn't that explosive anyway. He failed to establish a coherent message at any stage apart from being that guy who keeps rambling on about Bob McDonnell's thesis. That's the lesson from this campaign.

____________________

Truthseeker:

Stillow,

The G.O.P didn't screw up the NY Congressional race. It was the nuts like Palin, Fred Thompson (what a loser he was last year) and the other so-called Republicans who cost their party a seat. While Scozzafava had a few liberal views, on most economic issues she was conservative and would have beaten Owens easily. Gingrich and to a lesser extent, Romney and Huckabee were the winners. And if you think that Christie will govern as a conservative, then I'm sure you thought that Arnie would do that in California too.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR