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NY-23: Hoffman 51-Owens 34 (PPP 10/31-11/1)


Public Policy Polling (D)
10/30-11/01/09; 1,747 likely voters, +/- 2.3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP blog entry and release)

New York 23rd Congressional District

2009 House: Special Election
51% Hoffman, 34% Owens, 13% Scozzafava (chart)
54% Hoffman, 38% Owens (on 2-way choice question)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Bill Owens (D): 35 / 45
Doug Hoffman (C): 50 / 37
Dede Scozzafava (R): 31 / 52

 

Comments
Polaris:

That's an ouch for Owens but not unexpected given that Hoffman is the de-facto republican in this race and NY-23 is a strongly republican district. Honestly Scozzafava's endorsement of Owens is likely to prove that she was a Dem all along to republican voters in this district IMHO, and that will hurt Owen's ability to gain former Scozzafava voters.

-Polaris

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Stillow:

Checkmate for hoffman. Scozzy was more liberal than owens. When she endorsed owns it all but sealed the deal for Hoffman who should now win easily.

Let this be a message to the GOP, stop nominating liberals, that is why we have Democrats. Let them nominate the liberals.

Hoffman should win by double digits now. Unbeleivable what the GOP was thinking nominating her i nthe first place. Now she is endorsing a democrat? Gimme a break....this was like the Dems nominating ronald reagan.... sheeesh.

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Aaron_in_TX:

This poll's crosstabs say that 21% of democrats are voting for Hoffman. If that's true, then Hoffman's going to win by 15 points.

It also says that only 38% of "other" races approve of Obama, and that only 30% of ages 18-29 approve of Obama, while 40% of ages 65 and up say they approve of Obama. Do you really believe that seniors approve of Obama at a 10 point higher rate than young people? PPP does this...every...time. The age & race breakdowns have the same problems in VA. We're supposed to believe that 50 point swings have taken place among the democrats' most favorable groups, while independents, etc... have only swung 5-10 points.

Either this poll is stupid, or they've determined that almost none of the people supported Obama the most are going to get out and vote this year. That might be the case, but we shall see.

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Stillow:

Aaron, you have commented on non white approval for obama before. rather than assuming the polling is flawed....perhaps, just pehraps groups such as hispanics are not as blindly democratic as you assumed they were. Obama is doing a poor job....just because someone is black or brown doesn't make them stupid or blind to that fact.

Its my personal opinion that if Obama does not move right to center himself and stays on this liberal agenda, he will be in the low 40's in approval by summer and you will see Dems distancing themselves from him for next years elections. Similar to 2006 when republicans didn't want Bush anywhere near them.

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Stillow:

Also, if 40 percent of the country says they are conservatives, that means many of them are dems...you may also know them as reagan democrats. So it makes perfect sense that 20 percent of Dems would go for Hoffman, as a conservative he appeals to other conservatives, no matter the party ID.

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Aaron_in_TX:

Stillow, Obama has dropped about 10-15 points in approval since he took office. So I expect some drop-off in support among all groups.

However, I don't expect support to turn upside-down. Ie: I expect seniors to disapprove more than young people. If it's the other way around, something's fishy. Support for Obama among whites has fallen ~10 points. Blacks have fallen ~10 points. All age groups have declined ~10 points, except seniors, who have fallen further, according to other polls. PPP routinely gets strange results on these fronts.

A plausible explanation is that their likely voter model excludes those young people & minorities who voted for Obama.

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Polaris:

AITX,

Also bear in mind that in NY-23:

1. Republican win every time. That means in this district republican candidates are going to get significant crossparty support so for this district 20% Dem crossover doesn't seem out of line.

2. Hoffman started as a protest candidate. That too will draw some crossover vote.

3. The otherwise pro-Obama groups you mention may not be as endeared to him in this district as you might otherwise expect (this district DOES lean conservative even if Obama carried it...remember that in 2008 Obama also got 20% of the conservative vote).

-Polaris

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Polaris:

AITX,

A good likely voter model should exclude younger and minority voters at least in part. This is where that enthusiasm gap rears it's ugly head. In this case the people that most want to vote are older white voters, and the LV demographics should reflect that.

-Polaris

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platanoman:

The summer passed, stillow. You rightwing hack. Yes, it's really hard to believe this poll. It's really hard to believe 20 percent Dem support for Hoffman. You make NY-23 out to be some redneck rural district.

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Polaris:

Just to reiterate for everyone. Given this is a republican district that has never (since the Civil War) elected a democrat, and given that Hoffman has now become the de-facto republican which Scozzafava only confirmed today (effectively), Owens should stand basically no chance in a head to head race....and that is why I generally believe this result.

-Polaris

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Polaris:

plat,

William F Buckley came from the same part of the country that NY-23 is in. You do not have to be a southern redneck to be a conservative or to have conservative leaning districts even in states that are otherwise blue.

-Polaris

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Stillow:

aaron, but its the economy remember? Young people are having a near impossible time finding good jobs coming out of college or in there mid 20's. with unemployemnt rising, it makes sense young people would turn on him....Obama has not delivered on anything. He had promised if we passed his stimulus unemployment would not exceed 8 percent, we now stand at 9.8 and on our way to double digits. Young people looking for work are a little upset they voted for him because he said he could deliver results.

This was the danger people like me pointed out during the campaign. Obama was making so many promises to everyone there was no way he could live up to expectations. We are approaching a year and things are worsening, not getting better in terms of the thing speople care about, JOBS! And that is soemthing all age groups and all races can agree on.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"Young people are having a near impossible time finding good jobs coming out of college or in there mid 20's."

Stillow, young people have been in that situation this whole decade. A hs diploma is basically worthless now, a comm. coll. degree is the new hs diploma, and master's degrees are becoming the new bachelors. We have to compete globally against competitors who will do more for less. You're telling me that as if it's something I didn't know.

I agree that there's some disappointment in Obama, and that "change" was vague and could be interpreted as whatever you wanted it to be. But I'm not convinced that this means people are reflexively embracing the republican vision after having so soon rejected it. I don't think people were so stupid as to believe that simply electing Obama would cause some sort of utopia to take place in the USA. Anyone who knows anything about the U.S. gov't should understand that it was designed to be resistant to sweeping changes.

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Stillow:

Well we will keep an eye on more polling of Obama approval among young people and non whites. i suspect we will continue to see it fall as obama simply cannot deliver on the unrealitistic expectation his voters had for him.

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Polaris:

AITX,

The thing is that the GOP doesn't own the economy any more and has no power in govt right now and everyone knows it. Obama was elected to bring "Hope and Change" and younger people especially don't have much in the way of patience. As such a strong decline in Obama's approval/turnout of younger and minority voters might be a reasonable conclusion.

-Polaris

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Polaris:

Basically the Democrats and Obama in particular now own the economy for good and bad and right now that's bad. The where and whyfores are largely lost on the voting public (fair or not).

-Polaris

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LordMike:

Another Halloween poll... Democrats take their kids trick-or-treating, Republicans stay home. PPP made a poor choice polling on halloween.

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Polaris:

LordMike,

Actually my experience is the opposite. That said, you're right that you have to be extra careful about Halloween polling and I don't think it should be done. However, Jensen does address this issue (as does Scott Rasmussen) and they claim that they can reliably poll on Halloween because they use random lists with callbacks to prevent the skewing of the demographic that you allude to.

-Polaris

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