Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

NY-23 Siena Poll Bad News for Owens


Updated: I've now posted a less hasty look at the data. Change "bad news" to "mixed news". There is some good and some bad for both Owens and Hoffman. Still a tossup is the best characterization. The new post is here. I stand by the bad news mentioned here: Owens is not doing well among independents, and the new post shows Dems are defecting at 25%. So the headline here doesn't need to change. On the other hand, there are some weaknesses for Hoffman (and opportunities for Owens) among the Scozzafava voters, which I take up in the new post. ---charles


This is a quick note on the new Siena poll in light of Scozzafava dropping out.

Can Owens pick up from Scozzafava supporters? Not so likely given these poll results.

Owens Fav/Unfav among Scozzafava suppporters: 19/50
Hoffman Fav/Unfav among Scozzafava supporters: 15/57

Looks like a wash with many likely to skip the choice of two disliked alternatives.

And the worse news for Owens is among independents:

Ind. Fav/Unfav Owens: 39/47
Ind. Fav/Unfav Hoffman: 47/33

More after daughter's soccer game!

 

Comments
011121:

Bad news for Owens? Since the race seems to be a tie and since there's no indication that Scozzafava's followers don't seem likely to break more to one than the other isn't this news a wash?

____________________

011121:

Bleh, mangled that sentence. It should say "...since there's no indication that Scozzafava's followers *are* likely to break more to one than the other isn't this news a wash?"

____________________

Polaris:

With Scozzafava dropping out, this poll shows the best that Owens can hope for is about a 1:1 split with her supporters and given Hoffman's lead with indies, it won't even be that.

NY-23 is a republican district that is moderate but leans conservative. Hoffman is conservative and Owens is not and Hoffman has been embraced by the GOP.

Baring something very unusual, in a two person race I fail to see how the Dem (any Dem) wins this race and given the momentum, I suspect Owens may wind up losing by double-digits. It's hard to say since I've seldom seen races move this far this fast.

-Polaris

____________________

011121:

"With Scozzafava dropping out, this poll shows the best that Owens can hope for is about a 1:1 split with her supporters and given Hoffman's lead with indies, it won't even be that."

I don't see it. The discrepancy in independents is among all indepenedents and not just those who were planning to vote for Scozzafava. That discrepancy is then reflected in the poll by Owens getting 35% of independents while Hoffman gets 40%. But even with that Owens and Hoffman are not just statistically tied but almost literally tied. That advantage in all independents is not leading to a sizable advantage (or any advantage really) for Hoffman.

The queston then is whether independents who would have voted Scozzafava will now break to Hoffman by the same margin. Given that only 15% of independents supported Scozzafava anyway I have trouble seeing the discrepancy in Indie support mattering.

This looks to me like a long night squeaker finish and 50-50 odds for Owens. If he loses by double digits I'll be amazed.

____________________

I think we agree it is likely to be a squeaker, though I see considerable shadows for Owens. See the new post for details.

And thanks to you both for the comments which point to valid issues in the data.

--Charles

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR