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NY: Paterson, 2010 (Rasmussen 3/1)

Topics: poll

Rasmussen
3/1/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)
Update: Paterson resignation

Update 2: Senate
New York

2010 Governor
55% Cuomo (D), 30% Lazio (R) (chart)
56% Cuomo (D), 27% Paladino (R)
50% Cuomo (D), 19% Lazio (R), 15% Paladino (R)

2010 Senate
44% Gillibrand (D), 42% Pataki (R) (chart)
47% Gillibrand (D), 36% Zuckerman (R)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Carl Paladino: 30 / 33
Rick Lazio: 40 / 34
Andrew Cuomo: 64 / 29
Kirsten Gillibrand: 50 / 37 (chart)
Mort Zuckerman: 42 / 29
George Pataki: 52 / 38

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 57 / 42

Should Governor David Paterson resign as governor and allow Lieutenant Governor Richard Ravitch to finish out his term?
28% Yes, 53%No

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

I am actually surprised Rasmussen doesn't have lazio ahead. It wouldn't surprise me. I am waiting for the day they will show Pat Leahy in VT trailing by 10 points. If that happens, than they should face a lawsuit for fraud.

At least they are fair and balanced on this one.

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Field Marshal:

Please, they are fair and balanced on all of them. You and the other libs simply don't like the results.

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Stillow:

Did rasmussen get his horns removed yet?

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tjampel:

Ras has never had Lazio even close in this election. And they've consistently had Pataki within range or slightly ahead. What I'd look at here are Gillibrand's favorables. They're way up as she becomes more well known to Dems and they see that her voting record reflects their own preferences (and I'm basically referring here to downstate (NYC area) liberals who wanted Kennedy and have been very resistant to Gillibrand until recently).

Ras personally has an agenda. He's a conservative....duhh.

Ras's surveys many months out reflect the agenda in a sense; their likely voter screen assumes that Dems will stay disaffected and conservatives will be angry and vote in large numbers. That may be correct. If those of us who like to laugh at Ras's early polls in some of these races (especially favorables for some Rep. candidates in the high 70s and even 80s in a few cases) may have little to laugh about come Nov. However I think you will see Ras' numbers come more in line with those of other polling outfits over the next few months.

I think we all agree that when Ras wants to get it right they certainly are one of the best in the business at accurate forecasting. When they want to induce someone to run against a Dem, on the other hand (and this is true on both sides of the polling divide), they are going to use the most favorable set of potential voter behaviors, at the very least. That's not saying they are fudging data or calling more conservative people, but, if you construct a likely voter screen which takes advantage of current Dem/liberal dissafectedness...that's pretty much all you need to get eye-popping results in many races.

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Stillow:

You libs said the same thing about Ras's Obama job approval #'s when eh put him below 50...now 90 percent of pollsters have him below 90. Ras's likely voter model is more effective at picking up early trends. Trends start with people paying attention who are more likely to vote and then get picked up by more and more people. Rass is one of the better pollsters there is.

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