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NY: 2010 Sen, Gov (Quinnipiac 1/27-2/1)


Quinnipiac
1/27-2/1/10; 2,182 registered voters, 2.1% margin of error
921 Democrats, 3.2% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

New York

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
55% Cuomo, 23% Paterson (chart)

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary (trends)
36% Gillibrand, 18% Ford, 4% Tasini

2010 Governor
40% Lazio, 39% Paterson (chart)
57% Cuomo, 25% Lazio (chart)

2010 Senate (trends)
44% Gillibrand, 27% Blakeman
35% Ford, 26% Blakeman

Favorable / Unfavorable
Andrew Cuomo: 54 / 16
David Paterson: 34 / 49 (chart)
Rick Lazio: 20 / 15
Kirsten Gillibrand: 33 / 22 (chart)
Harold Ford: 16 / 13
Bruce Blakeman: 11 / 4

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Paterson: 37 / 54 (chart)
Sen. Gillibrand: 42 / 28 (chart)
Sen. Schumer: 58 / 30 (chart)
Pres. Obama: 57 / 38 (chart)

 

Comments
CUWriter:

Pataki needs to follow the lead of Dan Coats and get in this senate race. Both Gillibrand and Ford are ripe for the picking.

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Xenobion:

Pataki would be attacked by Club For Growth and Tea Party if he ran anyways. He's in retirement mode pretty soon.

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Stillow:

With such a red wave building across the country right now, I think the GOP will convince pataki to run. He has won in NY statewide before and early polling shows he wins in this race if he runs.

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Farleftandproud:

I think the GOP's quest for power will burst. PA, Indiana, and AK being relatively conservative the odds are pretty good. I lived with pataki in my media market for 12 years, and he has a lot of baggage. Personally he is a good guy, but he has had some shady opinions on support of torture. He did well because he was pro-choice, and I think he would likely support civil unions but not gay marriage. The reason he may not run is that it is a two year term. It is likely that if he were to win, the Democrats would find the best possible candidate to run in 2012. In a presidential election, turnout in NY is much higher.

Now the GOP is talking about Washington State, Oregon and NY. Mass. was different because neither candidate was an incumbent and January is the world's worst time to turn out voters. Dream on! Ron Wyden in Oregon had the most practical cost-effective health care reform plan around.

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Stillow:

All politicians have baggage. With Coats running in IN which was a brilliant move by the GOP, I think Bay hwill lose. His support for HCR will kill him in that state. What Obama and the libs have done is finally expose the supposed blue dog conservative democrat as nothing more than a lap dog liberal democrat when push come sto shove.

WA, OR, WI, CA, NY.....will all be ompetitive. Its simply not good right now to have a D next to your name.

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LordMike:

Bayh a liberal? ROFL!!!! He just confines his obstructionism in private, unlike Nelson and Lieberman.

Bayh's problem is that he doesn't stand for anything. He's mister wishy-washy, "Why won't to GOP like me and play nice, I give them everything they want." He's weak, and voters hate weakness. His father was a raging liberal and beloved by the state. It has nothing to do with ideology... it has to do with Mr. Bayh being extremely lame.

Harry Truman said that if voters have a choice between a real republican and a Democrat who simply acts like a Republican, they will pick the real thing every time. This is why the blue dogs are in such trouble. Republican-lite just isn't as appetizing.

That being said, if Bayh doesn't panic and wet his pants, he should be just fine. The problem is, there's already a puddle forming around his feet, so I'm not optimistic that he will do the right thing (i.e. stand up for his beliefs, whatever they are... something... anything!)

If he keeps running to the right, he'll get crushed. He needs to stand his ground on SOMETHING. Pick something... anything... but, show that you aren't the spineless wimp that most people think you are.

I'm sure Rasmussen will have a poll out in a few days that shows Bayh 20 points behind or something. That Rasmussen... always trying to make the news, instead of reporting it!

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Farleftandproud:

I have never heard of Coats.

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Stillow:

LordMike

YES, when push comes to shove bayh is just as liberal as reid is. He does what blue dogs always do and that is talk a good game about being fiscally responsible, etc....then he votes for a highly partisan very liberal HCR. I will bet you my house that if Bayh did not vote for HCR, the GOP woudl not be putting up a serious challenger against him. he talks the talk, but when it comes time to back it up, he caves like blue dogs always do.....Bayh, Lincoln, Webb, Baucus, Tester, Warner, there's a whole list of Dems i nthe senate who claim they are fiscally responsible, but when it comes time to vote, they vote for the worst piece of liberal legislation we've seen in dcades.

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LordMike:

Reid a liberal? ROFL!!!!!

And the HCR bill has its faults, but being "too liberal" is not among them. All the "liberal" stuff was stripped out by folks like Bayh, which is why it's having such a tough time in the house. The liberals in the house don't want to vote for a bill that was essentially written by Chuck Grassley.

In fact, the Senate bill is almost exactly what Judd Gregg proposed last June.

If the bill was so "liberal", why are some liberal activists still trying to kill it?

If Bayh had not voted for HCR, he'd still be in trouble... His democratic base in IN isn't too keen on him to begin with (just like Blanche Lincoln in AR). They would outright turn on him in the general. They still might. I talked to a few Indiana democrats today. They almost hope that Bayh would lose 'cos he's such an embarrassment to the party.

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Stillow:

LordMike

Don't get dirty rolling around o nthe floor....cus Bayh and al lthe tohers are exposed now. You do not vote yes on the biggest piece of crap liberal bill and then claim your fiscally responsible....that is worth of rofl.

Its easy to tlak the talk, but when Obama needed votes to push his liberal nonsense thru, Bayh fell in line with the other lap dogs and rolled over for Obama. Now its probably goign t ocost him his seat.

Loony lib activits are trying to kill the bill still cus its not signle payer....and the kooky left wants only signle payer. It was a trillion dollar entitlement, fiscally responsible people do not vote for junk like that.

Bayhand the lther lap dogs paid alot of lip service as they always do.....but like I said, when it came time to actually back it up with a vote, he rolled over.

Hopefully we are witnessing the death of the blue dog democrat...so people no longer get suckered into voting for democrats who lcaim to be fiscally responsible, but then end up being nothing but big spending fiscal liberals.

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Farleftandproud:

Well, just some good news for Dems, Rasmussen only has a 7 point lead in the generic instead of 9. If Ras had a 7 point lead coming into the midterms, it would likely not be enough for the GOP to take over the house. They would need a 12 point lead for it to be a sure thing. If the Dems can get past 2010 with less damage than expected, by losing no more than 5 senate seats, and 20 house seats, it would be a victory in this climate.

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Farleftandproud:

Dems could actually do worse in the senate than the house. Conservadems could lose in the senate, but other districts want someone who stand up for something like Alan Grayson. He may not be in a liberal district, but when you have congressmen with guts it brings voters out.

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Xenobion:

WA and OR are off limits. Sorry I live in the great PNW and Wyden, Cantwell, and Murray are way too popular. Murray especially who I think will end up being the next Senate majority leader if Reid ends up losing.

As for Coats. The guy has chickened out against Bayh 2 times before. The guy is literally afraid of Bayh. I'd love to see him go up against him since Bayh is so popular in IN.

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Stillow:

Bay, like Nelson is not all that popular anymore.......his support for nearly all of Obama's left wing stuff so far i nthe senate will be brought to everyoens attention. Bayh is in big trouble.

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Farleftandproud:

All this talk about transparency, is part of the GOP blame game. Obama said he wanted more government transparency, and we have seen that recently. Obama has met with the Republicans and had a question and answer session on national tv. I can't remember previous presidents doing that. Transparency though doesn't mean that every single discussion and debate has to be televised. Obama never said that.

I think part of the reason health care brought down some of the approval of these senators is the media overplayed it, and made it look like a huge government takeover. Many people don't like that, and progressives got their hopes up so much that historic reform was around the corner. What congress is doing now by not talking publicly about health reform is a good thing.

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