1/18/10; 1,000 likely voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen: Gov, Sen)
Lazio (R) 45%, Paterson (D) 38% (chart)
Cuomo (D) 54%, Lazio (R) 35% (chart)
2010 Senate (trends)
Gillibrand (D) 39%, Generic Republican 34%,Ford (I) 10%
Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 56 / 43 (chart)
Gov. Paterson: 43 / 56 (chart)
Favorable / Unfavorable
David Paterson: 44 / 53 (chart)
Rick Lazio: 45 / 34
Andrew Cuomo: 62 / 29
Harold Ford Jr: 35 / 31
Kirsten Gillibrand: 47 / 38 (chart)
I don't know if Pataki will run. By the time the 2010 election comes around, people in NY during a ordinary election will have good turnout. I know that Acorn isn't going to let the isolated incident that caused them to get ripped off of federal funding stop our efforts. Turnout will be good and we'll see to it. A lot more unlikely voters will turnout. Besides, Scott Brown is going to be so unpopular likely voting with the neo-cons that the voters of NY will see the writing on the wall.
Posted on January 21, 2010 10:32 AM
You still don't get it do you? MA had heavy turn out and Brown won. People are pissed at the liberal agenda......if pataki runs your in big trouble and would probably los ehtis seat too.
Posted on January 21, 2010 11:26 AM
I agree. Its Patakis seat if he wants it. The question is, does he want it?
Turnout in November, barring some unforeseen changes, will be huge just like in Mass, NJ and VA. People are simply disgusted by this government.
And with Obama not on the ticket, the huge turnout of minority voters will not materialize like it did in 2008 resulting in the Dems losing BIG TIME.
Posted on January 21, 2010 11:31 AM
The heavy turnout favored Martha Coakley. She would have been shut out by almost double digits if it was a snooze fest. Dems hold the cards in the Gov/Senate races as they won't announce their plans until Republicans do or don't. Even in these times I would expect Gillibrand to shine in a race of personality and issue against a competitive Republican. Her problem was her appointment, any run against her would actually favor her into a good incumbant status.
Posted on January 21, 2010 11:35 AM
New York doesn't need to rely on a minoritiy vote. If Scozzafava disaster is any inclinaton to what the upstate would do is they would largely be diseffected leaving the downstate to issue the majority of votes. I'm sure any NYer would take great offense of comparing them to MA yet still recognizing the general negative rep of Democrats at the same time. This is the state that remains to have one of the weakest Republican Parties in state and keep Schumer afterall.
Posted on January 21, 2010 11:39 AM
Turnout favors the candidate with momentum and the excited base. Brown voters, as per the PPP poll, were 80% excited compared with 60% for Martha. Thus, turnout in this case favored the Republican.
I expect the same disenchantment which resonated so loudly in Mass. to be echoed across the country in November, ceteris parabis. Turnout will be large but it will be based on who the voters are excited about. Right now, its getting rid of the Dems that voted for the health care bill.
Posted on January 21, 2010 11:49 AM
As popular as Pataki is he's a RINO and one of the most brandishing environmentalists in the Country. He's probably the most suitable candidate to run against Obama frankly in 2012. I'd say he's one of the few hopes of bringing the Republicans back to center.
Posted on January 21, 2010 11:58 AM
Uhh, McCain is a RINO and he lost. Reps need to run a CONSERVATIVE. Dems need to run someone more moderate like Clinton in 2012, who can bring them back to the center. Obviously the country doesn't like the far-left agenda very much.
Yes, Pataki is a RINO on most social issues, but he is fiscally conservative and would probably vote with the Reps on most bills.
Posted on January 21, 2010 12:10 PM
Wishful thinking X....Pataki wants it, it is his.
Obama won the personality contest in 2008 and look what that got us........this race will be highly competitive if Pataki runs and I would say it leans red.
Posted on January 21, 2010 12:11 PM
So why isn't Blumenthal in trouble in Conn? You guys act like Repubs have never won Statewide in NE before. The last I checked Rell and Douglass are both governers in NE and Collins won with a similar margin as Obama in Maine in '08.
The overreaction by both Dems and Repubs is amusing.
Posted on January 21, 2010 12:24 PM
I would say its your under reaction on whats going on right now.
Posted on January 21, 2010 12:42 PM
Just cause a moderate Conservative like McCain lost means the party needs to go to the right? That doesn't really make sense. If you would have had Romney or Huckabee those canidates would have lost more than McCain. Sorry but its true. Especially Romney. Independents will vote for a fiscal conservative and social moderate/liberal like Pataki. Pataki is eyeing 2012 and if he can win his home state the electoral college would fall into his lap. Senate seat is small potatoes. I'd be surprised if a 3 term Gov would want such a lame position as a Jr. Senator at his age and being someone that would essentially vote for Cap & Trade. He'd be more liberal than Olympia Snowe or Scott Brown.
Posted on January 21, 2010 12:45 PM
Interesting that Gov. Patterson's negatives are coming down some. I wonder why that would be.
Posted on January 21, 2010 1:25 PM
Because he is standing up to the crazies in the state legislature who refuse to cut spending.
I completely disagree. 2008 saw no increase in turnout overall. That is because so many republicans refused to show up and vote for McCain who they considered to be a RINO. Running someone like Huckabee, Thompson or Romney would have made the race tighter since they would have shown up with very few, if any, indies switching over since Obama is so far left. They still would have lost though.
Posted on January 21, 2010 2:16 PM
Voter turnout was the highest % since 1968. Republican turnout went down only 1.3 percent. The facts speak for themselves. Despite the 15 candidates the Republicans started with in the primaries they couldn't be enthusiastic about one.
Posted on January 21, 2010 2:28 PM
X - A fiscal conservative / social libertarian would be a very powerful candididate in this day and age. I think that is the future powerhouse combo right there. People do not want this big g'ment, high taxes and out of contro lspending. But they also don't want the far right social values imposed any longer.
The Dems want another 1.9T debt limi increase....I mean the people know this cannot persist, it has to stop. We are bankrupting ourselves. This spending cannot continue at this pace and increasing the tax burden on people already struggling will not be a viable solution.
Posted on January 21, 2010 4:42 PM
Patterson numbers have improved a little bit. I'm not excited and hopeful about democratic performance for 2010 until any workable health care legislation is passed. It's possible democrats may come back if the economy improves. Americans are unpatient people and they think it's now Obama economy eventhough it wasn't his fault.
Posted on January 21, 2010 6:50 PM
I predict the GOP wouldn't nominate Pataki because he is pro-choice; they wouldn't nominate Romney because he is multi-choice and I predict that they will nominate either Gingrich, Huckabee, or another social conservative. The base of the GOP is still in the south and rural midwest. Mccain was not conservative enough to rally up the base. That is why I predict Obama will go through a rough time, lose seats, his base will be frustrated, but his positive attitude and his effort, granted the economy improves would get re-elected.
Posted on January 21, 2010 8:55 PM
I can't believe one of the conservative bloggers just said Clinton was more moderate than Obama? Is that just because he talks with a southern accent and is white? I beg to differ. Obama is very sensative about issues that conservatives value. He has not gotten credit for the fact he has been much more willing to work with social conservatives far more than Bill or Hillary did. It was Bill who likely hurt himself by the assault rifle ban, and at the time, Bill Clinton fought hard for gay's in the military and Obama has really ignored the issue, and has not kept his promise on don't ask don't tell. Calling Obama more liberal than Clinton is ridiculous.
Posted on January 21, 2010 9:00 PM
American politics is a nightmare. I am not always going to live here. With 50 states and so much decentralization and too many state's right, it has created a system of chaos. You have to have 60 votes to get an important bill passed and so on. You can give your leader a vote of no confidence in Canada or Britain. America was designed to be such a unique democracy with a constitution that is set in stone and can't be altered. This has actually made us less of a democracy.
Posted on January 21, 2010 9:06 PM
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