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NY: 2010 Sen (Marist 3/23-24)

Topics: poll

Marist
3/23-24/10; 775 registered voters, 3.5% margin of error
217 Republicans, 7% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Marist release)

New York

2010 Senate: General Election (trends)
47% Pataki, 45% Gillibrand (chart)
54% Gillibrand, 25% Blakeman
54% Gillibrand, 27% DioGuardi
54% Gillibrand, 25% Malpass

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
18% DioGuardi, 10% Blakeman, 9% Malpass, 4% Senor
62% Pataki, 7% DioGuardi, 4% Blakeman, 2% Malpass, 2% Senor

Job Rating
Sen. Gillibrand: 27% Excellent/Good, 51% Fair/Poor (chart)
Sen. Schumer: 51% Excellent/Good, 45% Fair/Poor (chart)
Pres. Obama: 53% Excellent/Good, 47% Fair/Poor (chart)

 

Comments
Field Marshal:

PATAKIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII!!! Just run already!!

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StatyPolly:

If Pataki and maybe Tommy Thomson run, the GOP has a realistic chance of picking up 8-9 seats in Nov.

Hate to link competition site here, but they have some break downs there.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latestpolls/

On the left side column. Toss ups, leans, likelies and safes.

In a complete goldielocks scenario, GOP can pick up as many as 12.

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Stillow:

Get in already pataki, its yours if you want it.

Hmmm, but the qustion is if the GOP takes both chambers, would obama just disband the congress saying the system is broken and declare himself King? After all he needs a crown to fit his ego.

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LordMike:

Everyone wants Pataki to run but Pataki... Assuming he maintains his no-run position, I would guess the reason lay in who's heading the Democratic ticket for governor. Cuomo is pretty popular, and he has long coattails.

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williame123:

Those who think Pataki is going to beat Gillibrand have not studied her political background well. She is a much better campaigner that many give her credit for. Pataki is running even with her despite his advantages in name ID and a 12-year stint as governer.

Running for governor is very different from running for senator. Pataki doesn't have the element of surprise and the race would get very partisan over national issues. Scott Brown was supposed to be the next coming of Reagan and yet since he got elected we have not seen on offense. He voted for the jobs bill and will be voting for financial reform. He is still calling out Obama to a basketball game. I wonder why he wants to seen with the president. Could it be for the same reasons why Ben Nelson wanted to be seen with Bush?

Mark Kirk's momentum is slowing in Illinois and Fiorina is yet to open a significant lead on Boxer. We will see about the 9-10 seat pick up in Senate.

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Field Marshal:

Though i dislike these types of categories, the job rating results show Gillibrand VERY vulnerable.

27% excellent/good versus 51% fair/poor.

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Xenobion:

If any of these NY polls have shown recently is that Gillibrand is not a pushover. What will it take for an old dog like Pataki to get in a hard fought race? Maybe lost sleep and millions of dollars in the most expensive advertising arena.

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Cyril Washbrook:

"Though i dislike these types of categories, the job rating results show Gillibrand VERY vulnerable.

27% excellent/good versus 51% fair/poor."

Of the 51%, 34% say "fair". While I agree that Gillibrand is vulnerable in the sense that it will be a tough race, there's no sense that she's actually unpopular. The way I'd put it is to say that with a particularly well-known and popular challenger (Pataki being the only reasonable possibility at this stage), the race will be competitive, but she would have few problems against anyone below that sort of calibre.

Most voters aren't especially concerned either way, which is also why the partisan and ideological breakdowns regarding approval of Gillibrand are remarkably even (see page 10 of the release).

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Von Wallenstein:

When was Schumer elected governor?

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