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NY: 2010 Sen (Zogby 11/20-21)


Zogby
11/20-21/09; 982 likely voters, 3.2% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Zogby release)

New York

2010 Senate: General Election
45% Giuliani, 43% Gillibrand (chart)
43% Gillibrand, 38% Pataki (chart)

2010 Senate: Republican Primary (trends)
72% Giuliani, 28% Pataki

 

Comments
Xenobion:

Although its Zogby and a phone poll, if other polls start showing Gillibrand against Giuliania in this manner, I'm curious if he'd run. A loss for him would probably be close to the end of his political career.

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Aaron_in_TX:

I've heard he's ruled out running for governor, but has not ruled out running for senator.

Giuliani could make a strong argument to NYC voters that he would fight for them, negating some of the anti-republican bias there. They already don't like Gillibrand all that much. I thought she was a poor choice to fill the seat for the very reason we see now.

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LordMike:

Gilllibrand's problem is that she's still virtually unknown. She is a great Senator, and probably will be the first female president of the United States...

New Yorkers (the city) are still mad that Caroline Kennedy was not picked and are taking it out on her. She's being dragged down by her association with Patterson.

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Wong:

Giuliani has a serious problem with his ex-wife and children, not to mention Kerik. These judgment and character issues make his election prospects.... problematic. It would be surprising to me if he would choose to open those wounds.

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HoosierDaddy:

Outside of Pataki or Giuliani (who are both in their mid 60's) the NY GOP doesnt have anyone with any credibility.

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Field Marshal:

Gillibrand as the first female president. That's funny. Thanks for the laugh.

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Alexander:

Oh! Someone shares my secret belief in Sen. Gillibrand!

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Truthseeker:

I said that after she got appointed.

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tjampel:

Giuliani once decided to enforce the City's anti-jaywalking provisions with 0 tolerance. Shortly thereafter he was videotaped....jaywalking, of course, and that was the end of that.

For me, personally his execrable behavior towards Donna Hanover (his e-wife) was the last straw. His appointment of his former driver, Bernie Kerrick, now under indictment for a gazillion crimes also showed a terrible judgment. His attempt to close down most of our community gardens (the few pockets of greenery in some of the more densely populated areas here) and build more apartments also alienated many people.

His imperious and autocratic style became his trademark....and then, yes, there was 911 right at the tail end of his tenure, and many people did forget about all the bad things; but that's receded in the distance, and the taste left in most folks mouth from Rudy is....nasty dude, good in a crisis; Senate is a collegial body and not really his thing; he'd actually hate it if he were elected, I think; as a 60 something Junior Senator of the minority party with no seniority it's tough to lead.

I actually liked him when he was first elected, based on his tough stance and successful prosecutions against organized crime; he's great when there something to attack, but he'd hardly be a Senator who represents the interests of the people of NY, based on their ideology or specific views on issues. New Yorkers have one of the highest levels of support for Obama and his programs; Giuliani pretty mcuh opposes them all.

He's less loved than you think in NYC. We DID love his response to 911; however, when you make this into your entire resume (a noun, a verb, and 911) it get's tiring; he just did it again last week while ripping into Obama for the umpteenth time.

Gillibrand was not known in NYC; Kennedy was the obvious favorite here, but, face it, it was because of her name, basically. Gillibrand's proven to be a reliable progressive in the Senate, and, additionally has a good NRA score, having been pro-gun for years. She's adjusted her political stances to better position herself to attract the liberal base here.

If Gillibrand is NOW within a few points of Giuliani (whom my mom, who's prone to garbling names, once mistakenly (or was it)refered to as "Ghouliani", I have little doubt that, unless Dems fortunes get a lot worse (which is a possibility in the current climate) she'll defeat him handily.

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Farleftandproud:

Kennedy would have been a terrible campaigner and not a charismatic politician. I don't think her heart was even in being a senator. She was the favorite because she was a Kennedy, but that doesn't mean you would be a good senator. Gillibrand is under the radar now because she is just another Democrat who has a lot to prove in Obama's first two years in the White House. Just that alone makes things even harder for Gillibrand, but once people know more about her she will likely win.

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