Pollster.com

Although it's registered voters, the truth is probably halfway between the 6 point Q leads and this poll. Low to mid double digits.

This race has me confused. Even if Survey USA were correct on Washington and MN, NY is in a different category. It is unlikely that Gillibrand is vulnerable, but I can predict that Survery USA will be out of business by this november.

If Rasmussen shows her within a few points of the Republican, than I'll believe it is close, but after seeing Survey USA's methodology, I think they really underpoll certain groups.

This poll is of registered voters, not likely voters. So it completely takes away the enthusiasm gap. At this point, I don't know why they are still using a registered model.

I am very skeptical that Gillibrand suddenly has 57% support now that her challenger has much better name recognition, especially considering the fact that before she couldn't even break 50%. Now all of the sudden she's at 57%?

I'll wait for Rasmussen and PPP to come out.

Just saw a new Qunnipiac poll showing the NY senate a 6 point race: Gillibrand 48%; Dioguardi 42%. (LV model)

Two likely voter polls show the race single digits while Siena's registered poll shows Gillibrand with her highest support through the entire election season. This is why enthusiasm is important.

It is NY state and Gillibrand has the money advantage over her opponent. I don't see any ads for her opponent which is why I am not so sure the others were accurate.

Interesting note: Before the NY Gubernatorial primary, Siena had Lazio 1 point ahead of Paladino. Paladino ended up crushing Lazio by a 62 - 38 margin. This was a registered model, so it ignored the tremendous enthusiasm for
Paladino.

@JJC

Rasmussen's poll just after the primary was Gilibrand 49% DioGuardi 39%. While the Sienna poll, using just RV, almost certainly exaggerates Gilibrand's lead, the SUSA poll seems somewhat unlikely. In party-id it has a +9dem advantage, with 35% conservative and 20% liberal. Putting that into context in 2004, (a pretty good year for republicans), the party-id was +16D, and 25% conservative to 27% liberal. NY is one of the few states in which there are more (self-declared) liberal than conservatives and while that might change for this elections, I doubt it will by that margin.

I would guess Gilibrand still leads by about 8% (splitting rasmussen and Quinnipiac).

JJC,

Yeah, the RV model this go around is going to massively misstate voter turnout IMO. This Siena poll is clearly an outlier for using the methodology. Might as well be an internet poll if you're not using an LV screen by now.

No we have Cuomo being caught lying about voting for Bloomberg. Shocker!

But New York state has higher voter turnout than many other places. It will be much higher this year, because the races are more competitive. I am sure that 26 points is a bit of a stretch, but I'll be believe a poll from upstate NY moreso than I would Survey USA who is from where? The Northwest? The Midwest?

Cuomo is in trouble here. After getting the Bloomberg endorsement, he lies about voting for Bloomberg, when actually, he endorsed the democrat running against Bloomberg, and never voted for Bloomberg.