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NY: Obama 46, McCain 41 (Siena-9/8-10)

Topics: PHome

Siena College
9/8-10/08; 626 LV, 3.9%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

New York
Obama 46, McCain 41
(August: Obama 47, McCain 39)

 

Comments
Xenobion:

Funny.

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jazz:

no real internals, no way of knowing what type of sample mix. ny going to the republicans is highly unlikely.

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boomshak:

OMG, I don't know if this poll is true, but if it is, Obama is in SERIOUS trouble.

First MN cracks, then MI, then PA and no NY?

Wowsers.

We'll see.

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boomshak:

Here's the amazing part of that poll:

"With 50 Days Left, New York Is Far From True Blue
Obama’s Lead Falls to 5 Points; Down From 18 Points in June"

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djneedle83:

Obama is winning this state by 18%-24%. Obama will hit 85% in every New York City borough except for Staten Island. Turnout in all those areas will be atleast 20%-30% greater than in 2004.

This is why I feel that Obama wins Colorado because Boulder/Denver is becomming a liberal mecca of the Mountain West. There isn't a super-culturally conservative area to offset the massive gains made by Democrats in that state. Ohio has a Democratic advantage of about 900,000, but Southern Ohio is red neck country. No offense but those people are stupid.

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IndependentThinker:

Go McPa"lies"n
This survey reflects so much people's ideologies in NY that you can start wasting your time and your limited money there
Go ahead !, LOL
Can you spell "delusional" ??
FYI : NY is a liberal state

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djneedle83:

As a side note, Kerry only garnered 70%-75% of the vote in the New York boroughs. Add 15% to that total as well as 20%-30% greater turnout and you have a massive blowout in the Empire state.

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PHGrl:

Crosstabs are found here..

http://tinyurl.com/5ds4la

but no details on sample composition..

18-34 year olds at 47% support? please.. that one finding alone, makes me think this poll is garbage...

most young folks in the city area are cell phone only-- probably not representative for this group at all...

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ILGamecock:

djneedle83-
There's no need for name calling. Stick to objective analysis.

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djneedle83:

Black turnout in Ohio 12%-13%
Black turnout in Colorado 3%-4%, but add on a 13%-15% Latino (mostly mexican hispanics) and Obama is in amazing position to win.

National internals have Obama getting 94% of the Black vote and 64%-67% of the Latino vote. If Obama can get atleast 43% of the White vote in Colorado he will win.

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djneedle83:

I live in liberal Connecticut and people here still call the poeple of Southern Ohio mornons for giving away the election to Bush. When 60% of the populatino here has college degrees and 15% of the population in Southern Ohio have them..we can call them stupid.


Add on top of that the corrupt Blackwell for caging voters ..you get a mess.

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IndependentThinker:

By the way this is not the first time this organization polls shows a single-digit edge for Obama even though others show double-digit advantage.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ny/new_york_mccain_vs_obama-343.html
That must be an organization financed by Sean Hannity, LOL !
Go ahead McPa"Lies"n, it would be nice for you to spend your time/money in this liberal state

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faithhopelove:

This poll's sample is too small for a state the size of NY. It is most likely an outlier. It suggests that Obama will only win NY women by 2%, and that McCain will win the Jewish vote by a 2 to 1 margin. It also finds that Obama is not yet winning 9 out of 10 African-Americans.

Forget this poll. Instead, check out this new SUSA poll of VA (Obama up 4):
http://www.wdbj7.com/Global/story.asp?S=9010014

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RedSoxFan:

Man I hope I am wrong, but as an Obama supporter, if the polls are right it is really starting to look like an uphill battle to win this thing. I am very sad today that I have come to this conclusion.

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djneedle83:

I live in liberal Connecticut and people here still call the poeple of Southern Ohio mornons for giving away the election to Bush. When 60% of the populatino here has college degrees and 15% of the population in Southern Ohio have them..we can call them stupid.


Add on top of that the corrupt Blackwell for caging voters ..you get a mess.

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zen:

Don't worry, Democrats,

Most of these polls don't include cell phone only users.
In primary, especially in NC, IN, OR all the polls are less favorable for obama than result.... 4,5 percent less than result....
you know why? because youngsters, renters, students they don't have landlines and they are undersampled....

So if it's less than 4 point minus for Obama, Obama is winning.
If you have doubt, you can check with primary polls....

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djneedle83:

Obama will be the next president. Anyone, want to bet money on this?

http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/09/15

The new research 2000 tracking..

48 Obama
45 McCain

Blacks 94-4 Obama
Latinos 66-32 Obama
Whites 56-36 McCain (primarily Southern Whites mess up the sample)

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Mike_in_CA:

haha anything that keeps you going in the morning boomshak. MN "cracks"? You make it sound like its an old bridge that needs repairing...oh wait, that WAS in MN right? Who was it that failed to repair the infrastructure before it was too late? Oh yea, the Republicans. Gosh, so silly that I forgot.

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KipTin:

I still think Obama wins New York, but please pay attention to New York demographics.

New York metro is liberal... Not all of New York. Ask Hillary. She had to work hard to get upper state New York conservative votes. And please note that New York has a record of electing GOP senators. For example: Al D'Amato (1981-1999).

And a recent GOP Governor-- George Pataki (1995-2006).

And as you remember, New York City even elected a GOP Mayor-- Rudy Giuliani.

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djneedle83:

http://education-portal.com/articles/Colorado_(CO):_University_and_College_System.html


Colorado colleges that are Obama strongholds that have over 10,000 students

Univ. of Colorado- Boulder 32,000 approx
Colorado State- 28,000 approx
State College Denver- 22,000 approx
Univ. of Colorado Denver- 20,000 approx

Early voting..early voting...early voting

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djneedle83:

Cell-phone users will give Obama an additional 1%-2.5% of the vote in dark blue states as well as toss-up states. These states don't have a strong southern-baptist presence so the bradley effect will be nullified completely.

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carl29:

I am a bit skeptical of polls at this time, 'cause in my opinion the dust hasn't settled completely. Look, if you really look at this poll, nothing has changed that much since the last poll taken in August, Obama went down 1% and McCain went up 2%, both movements way within the margin of error.

The polls at this time are pretty schezoprenic in my opinion. Remember the Survey Usa poll from Virginia released last week, showing McCain ahead of Obama by 2%, now has Obama up by 4%, a 6% swing in a week!!!! I don't even know if that is possible.

Remember that Obama's convention bounce was "artificially" stopped by the McCain's pick and the Republican convention. However, the McCain's convention bounce is dying on its own, but is dying guys. So, in other words, McCain's dust is taking a little longer to settle, therefore the numbers. However, I think that Poll numbers will change from one week to the next until the 1st debate.

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Tybo:

"When 60% of the populatino here has college degrees and 15% of the population in Southern Ohio have them..we can call them stupid."

you need to go back to school and learn the definitions of "stupid"

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RaleighNC:

djneedle, please continue that line of thought! Shout it from the rooftops! People absolutely ADORE being called "stupid" by a northeastener, especially one in CT.

If..big if...New York is this close it's only because Hillary's homestate is livid she wasn't chosen as VP.

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damitajo1:

i highly doubt the race in nyc is this close. but people should remember that ny had a 2-term republican governor. he was not anti-choice, but he was still a repub. also, BLUE nyc elected the horrible-on-race giuliani to two terms, defeating the city's first black mayor. upstate ny is very white and moderate to conservative.

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KipTin:

Hey... djneedle83... you are assuming only liberals use cell phones.

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atreides:

This is why I think some of the polling is suspect. There just is no way that it is this close in NY. So if the polling is this far off in NY, then what does that say about Ohio or even Va. I feel better now.

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player:

There are a lot of conservative democrats in New York state. This is evident by the elections of Giuliani and Pataki. HRC was treated very badly by the Obama campaign. These people don't like it. This undertow of conservative democrat support for McCain looks to be national. Lets see how Obama does in the debates. He looked like a rookie with no answers in his first real test against OReilly. If one of the real professionals would do a serious interview with him and follow up on his answers, he would be in serious trouble. He wouldn't be able to hold up. In these interviews, he acts like a college kid.

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zen:


In Newyork, there are many blacks they don't have landline phone. And many youngsters who are using cell phone only. So don't worry, in election day, many people will be surprised.
many polls are undersampled for obama.
you can check in DEM primary polls and compare them with the result.
(NC, IN, OR--- where he was winning or competitive, he was always better than polls.)

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balink98:

This is so entertaining! To watch the the members of the "Cult of Obama" begin to realize that they bought into a joke, a fairy tale, an inexperienced orator, a farce. If any of you Obamabots think this is good news, or even news that can be overlooked you are just fooling yourselves. Obama should be up by 30 points or more in NY! Some of you dismiss the poll based on how many landlines there are, how many young people might turn out etc....Obama will win NY, but this is bad, very bad. What happened to the vaunted 50 state strategy?

Face it, the "Obama Titanic" has hit the iceberg and is taking water over the bulkheads. It is going down, slowly but surely. Say your prayers passengers, remain calm, take a deep breath....this will all be over soon. Probably on Nov 5th.

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balink98:

This is so entertaining! To watch the the members of the "Cult of Obama" begin to realize that they bought into a joke, a fairy tale, an inexperienced orator, a farce. If any of you Obamabots think this is good news, or even news that can be overlooked you are just fooling yourselves. Obama should be up by 30 points or more in NY! Some of you dismiss the poll based on how many landlines there are, how many young people might turn out etc....Obama will win NY, but this is bad, very bad. What happened to the vaunted 50 state strategy?

Face it, the "Obama Titanic" has hit the iceberg and is taking water over the bulkheads. It is going down, slowly but surely. Say your prayers passengers, remain calm, take a deep breath....this will all be over soon. Probably on Nov 5th.

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Trosen:

Oh yea, NY is up for grabs!! McCain should start campaigning heavily in NY today!!! and in NJ and NH and PA and even MD!! Haha.. you guys crack me up. I only wish the McCain campaign was drinking the same kool aid. Maybe pull resources out of VA and CO to go to places like NY. Hey, there's a lot more electoral votes there. Turn NY red baby!! You can do it.

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

Djneedle:
Thank you for demonstrating so adequately that education does not equal intelligence.

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