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NY-Sen: 54% Gillibrand (D), 42% DioGuardi (R) (Marist 9/19-22)

Topics: Marist , poll

Marist
9/19-22/10; 617 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Marist release)

New York

2010 Senate (B)
54% Gillibrand (D), 42% DioGuardi (R) (chart)

2010 Senate (A)
59% Schumer (D), 38% Townsend (R) (chart)

 

Comments
Bob in SJ:

Yeah, this is about right. Wonder if they did a Gov poll.

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StatyPolly:

Joe actually leads among the "very enthusiastic" about voting 52-43.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/nyspolls/NY100919/Senate/U.S.%20Senate%20in%20New%20York%20Tossup_Gillibrand_DioGuardi_Registered%20Voters.htm

I'll shed a tear if lose our "hottest Senator".

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Crimsonite:

But if you count all or most of Lazio's total for Paladino, now that Lazio's dropped out, Paladino has about 42 with a 10 pt spread. Not much better, but more realistic.

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lat:

What about the "extremely enthusiastic, will stop at nothing, and will knock down the voting booth" category?

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Farleftandproud:

This is sort of the reverse of MS in 2008. Wicker was the guy who won the special election while their long-term senator had little competition. I knew the Republican would win the special, but he only won it in that very red state by about 8 points.

I think just about anyone could come within 10 of Gillibrand for those who don't like her, but she has the funding. I would be more worried about her losing, if Guilliani was running for Governor.

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Farleftandproud:

Yes, it is the hottest senator vs the father of his really hot daughter Cara from American Idol.

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niikeb:

I don't know if Sen. Brown is willing to give up the title of 2 year senator with the hot American Idol daughter. The senate may not be big enough for the both of them...

That said, I would rather we lose NY this year. Gillibrand is a walking corpse, she will be taken out easily in 2012.

There are 2 scenarios that could have happened, Republicans run a top tier candidate like Pataki, blow millions in the expensive NYC area advertising, and maybe take out Gillibrand who would be supported by Schumers huge cash reserve which he will throw into GOTV operations. Then in 2 years a up and coming top tier dem takes back the seat and holds it for a long time.

Or, run a 2nd tier candidate, let Schumer sit on his money, then in 2012, take out the useless Gillibrand with a top tier Republican like Pataki. Schumer can't spend his money because he is not running, and we get a 6 year term.

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StatyPolly:

lat, I can tell that you're scared shitless just by the fact that you wake up in the middle of the night to launch unprovoked attacks on posters here.

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SC Guy:

I think it's very interesting that Gillibrand is starting to look vulnerable. She's pretty useless as a senator so I don't think she would be any great loss to the Empire State if she goes.

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lat:

StatePolly,

You found me out! Thanks for showing me the way I could not have recognized it without you. I will go get scared now.

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