Obama Recovery Across Red, Yellow and Blue States
Charles Franklin | September 22, 2008
Obama has now recovered his lead in national polling, rising at or above his post-DNC, pre-RNC level. This sharp turnaround erases the very sharp pro-McCain/Palin convention bounce we saw in early September.
But the Obama recovery is not concentrated in Democratic states. As with the McCain advantage, this turn is visible in all three types of states-- Red, Yellow and Blue.
The biggest recovery is actually in the Red states, where McCain enjoyed his biggest bounce. Those states are not back where they started, or even a shade less pro-McCain, but they are a far ways from being "close".
The states we have classified as tossup or leans (what I'm calling yellow here, though on the map leans are light red or blue) have also seen a significant Obama recovery. The range of movement is rather modest, but the roughly three point McCain gain has now been balanced by a 3+ point Obama recovery in these most contested states, putting Obama up by just over a point.
Dem states showed a small move to McCain and have now seen an Obama recovery, though with a one point fall off most recently.
By Charles Franklin | September 22, 2008 1:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBacks (0)
Comments
Yowza.
Obama's lead in Hotline/Diageo just jumped from 45-44 to 47-42.
Posted on September 22, 2008 1:29 PM
Are certain sub-groups more likely to contribute to convention bounces? I would imagine that independents and moderates might be more affected (or is that not so clear?), but what about different age groups, education and income levels?
Posted on September 22, 2008 1:45 PM
Your Illinois Senate map shows it as a toss-up, which would certainly surprise Sen. Durbin. It is because you entered the Rasmussen poll numbers backwards.
Posted on September 22, 2008 2:43 PM
crcolorado: Thanks we'll fix it asap.
Charles
Posted on September 22, 2008 3:25 PM
I noticed the ARG says Bush's approval rating is 19%. I wonder if anyone will mention it, or whether it will be discarded as an "outlier."
Posted on September 22, 2008 5:08 PM
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