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OH: 2010 Gov (Quinnipiac 6/22-27)

Topics: Governor , Ohio , Poll

Quinnipiac
6/22-27/10; 1,107 likely voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

Ohio

2010 Governor
43% Strickland (D), 38% Kasich (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Ted Strickland: 42/ 37 (chart)
John Kasich: 28 / 19

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Strickland: 44 / 42 (chart)

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

Ohio voters seem lately to be trending more Democratic than PA voters. I find that to be mysterious since I have spent time in both places and PA by far and away seems less socially conservative.

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Field Marshal:

Kasich is still fairly unknown statewide judging by the poll. Given that he is more moderate than Strickland and the state of the economy in OH, i think Kasich will attract more of the undecideds. I wonder if Quinn polled the senate race as well and are going to release that soon.

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Wright Wing:

I live in Ohio, and I can testify that almost no one knows Kasich. And I agree, Marshal, independents will probably break to the right just like they have nationwide. Kasich's ads have just started hitting the airwaves, too, and I'm probably biased, but they way he's talking about jobs is really going to hit Strickland hard, since we've lost 400,000 during his term.

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hoosier_gary:

Stickland has a 44% approval. He hasn't broken above 50% in any poll this year.

I'm not sure where you see a trend, Farleft. The previous Quinnipiac poll was 44/38 Strickland/Kasich. The one before that was 43/38. Before that, 44/39.

Also, look at the job approvals in the poll - not just at the favorables. Only 33% approve of his job on the economy, 31% on the state budget, and only 31% say he has kept his campaign promises.

There would have to be something cataclysmic to turn this election around. An incumbent governor in the low 40's at this point doesn't stand much chance.

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dpearl:

I live in Central Ohio where Kasich was my congressman for many years - so name recognition is not a problem here. His ties to Lehman Brothers after he left congress hurt his name brand significantly (his whole story of the son-of-a-postal-worker fiscal conservative turning into the guy with the golden parachute associated with the wall street fiscal disaster). Strickland's campaign is going after that aggressively.

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Roman:

Kasich was a really bad candidate here for the GOP. This should have been a cake walk for them, now they are going to have to invest a lot of time and money if they want to take this governorship.

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LordMike:

FM, where did you get the idea that Kasich was a moderate? He's a self-proclaimed teabagger--says that he was the first teabagger ever. He professes it loudly, and it will be his undoing. No republican to the right of Voinovich has ever been elected statewide in Ohio and I doubt it happens now. Strickland is the moderate in this race. After all, he's a Christian minister. He even has the NRA's endorsement, believe it or not.

Strickland is a very likable guy, and that's extremely important nowadays... I wish they polled favorables on him, 'cos they'd be much higher than approval.

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Farleftandproud:

Strickland sounds like a sane moderate, sort of like Bob Casey. He knows which issues to take points of view that are not extreme and seems very independent minded.

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hoosier_gary:

@Lordmike:

"I wish they polled favorables on him, 'cos they'd be much higher than approval."

That is his favorable. He only has a 42% favorable and is in the 30's in individual job performance. His overall job approval is higher than his favorable so there isn't much chance of his likability helping him any. He actually isn't very likable any more, according to this poll.

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Field Marshal:

PPP released a poll on this race today with Kasich up by 2.

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MikeyA:

This really doesn't represent much of a change from before. This has higher undecideds that the other polls but it's statistically still close.

I've said for the enthusiasm gap Dems need to win by 5%. I'm shocked there's so many who don't know Kasich yet.

I don't like to "pollster bash" but what has stuck to me about Quinnipiac was when they had Christ down 3 pts to Rubio in the GOP primary. So I've been leary about their sampling as of late but I'm not afraid to admit that I could be wrong.

I stand by my previous that it's jobs that are hurting Strickland. Toledo and Youngstown are high Dem areas and have been hit the hardest with job losses. Add in the President denying the Toledo area Federal funds from the deadly tornado's and it's not going to drive Dems to the polls.

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Will Smit:

FYI, the press release says registered voters, not likely voters. Maybe one souce of difference with today's PPP poll.

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