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OH: 2010 Gov, Sen (Quinnipiac 3/23-29)

Topics: poll

Quinnipiac
3/23-29/10; 1,526 registered voters, 2.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

Ohio

2010 Governor
43% Strickland (D), 38% Kasich (R) (chart)

2010 Senate
41% Fisher (D), 37% Portman (R) (chart)
38% Brunner (D), 37% Portman (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Ted Strickland: 46 / 35 (chart)
John Kasich: 24 / 10
Lee Fisher: 27 / 13
Jennifer Brunner: 21 / 12
Rob Portman: 25 / 8

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Strickland: 49 / 40 (chart)
Sen. Brown: 45 / 30 (chart)
Sen. Voinovich: 46 . 36 (chart)
Pres. Obama: 47 / 48 (chart)

 

Comments
GmcG:

Maybe I am missing it but shouldn't there be a party breakdown at the Quinnipiac site? I just don't see it.

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Field Marshal:

40+ questions and not one asking party affiliation?

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jmartin4s:

First of all, if I'm going to trust a poll telling me good news it will be PPP whose results last week completely do not jive with what is in this poll. First of all, Strickland is hated in Ohio and most polls confirm that he is likely to be unseated next year. Second, Obama's approval rating in Ohio is actually horrid, and according to PPP was 40/53 which is completely different than QU 47/48.

My final point is that if Lee Fisher gets the nomination, this seat is 90% likely to go red possibly even by as much as 20 points if not more. People in Ohio do not like Lee Fisher in Ohio to start with and they like him even less since he is the lt. governor who works with unpopular governor Ted Strickland. Brunner is the only one who can win this seat and if they push her aside that simply won't happen.

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LordMike:

Strickland is not hated in Ohio. Where do you get this misinformation? Come and visit and ask around. In fact, the people that have issues with Strickland tend to be Democrats who think he doesn't fight harder for schools and libraries and such. People in Ohio are very frustrated with the economy and with gridlock in Columbus, but I have not heard one bad thing from Republicans or Independents about Strickland (and believe me, I ask around everywhere I go). The only complaint I've heard from the right is that they don't like his education reform plan, but the criticism is mild (and that's from deep red SW Ohio). That's why I found the PPP so shocking last week. It does not jive with what's happening on the ground. This is not a Corzine or a Patterson situation. Strickland is a very likable guy, and that can be the most important thing in politics.

I'm not saying that Strickland isn't in trouble... People still may vote against him, and he could easily lose, but he is not "hated" as you say. That's just bogus. There still is a bad aftertaste of 20 years of GOP rule here and that hasn't gone away....

In a normal year, Kasich would be way too much of a wingnut to be elected here. Ohio Goopers have to be moderates to win statewide. Kasich is anything but. Very few people know who he is. The race will come to defining him as a Tea Partier. That association should doom him in a state that prefers folks like Voinovich, DeWine and Taft on the GOP side.

As for Obama's approval, Obama struggled with racism in the state during the general election. Downticket democrats crushed the GOP statewide, while Obama squeaked by. I would say that his approval is somewhere in between what PPP and Quinnipiac said.

PPP is a great pollster, but no one is perfect all the time. PPP had a lot of trouble with Ohio in 2008, with whacked out numbers for most of the year. In the end, they got it spot on, but it took a long time to get their numbers right.

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jmartin4s:

@LordMike
Ok, you claim Strickland is so popular, I see BS all over that statement. The POLLSTER.COM trend graph of Strickland's approval ratings has 44.0% Approval 51.3% DISAPPROVAL. That DOWNWARD APPROVAL TRENDLINE suggests a real popular governor to mee (sarcastic). I would like nothing more than to see than to see that Fox News puppet the GOP is running to be creamed by Kasich but simply Strickland trendline suggests that a ham sandwich could beat him in November. The only way Ted Strickland wins is with the same hyperinflated turnout that Obama got in '08 and trust me Ted Strickland will not be as lucky as Christine Gregoire was.

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Scott:

Lord Mike -- Until your third paragraph, you were making some reasonable although somewhat anecdotal arguments. But then to call Kasich a wingnut and a Tea Partier basically lost you all credibility.

Two points about Quinnipiac...
1. IMHO they are a good pollster, but they are prone to occasional outlier polls that are two Democratic leaning. One example would be a NJ Guv poll on 10-26 http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1389 showing Corzine up by 5 while everyone else was showing Christie up.
2. This is of registered voters not likely voters which would swing several points to the Ds.

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LordMike:

You misunderstood what I said. I didn't say he was popular. If I implied that, I apologize. You said he was hated. He is not "hated"... people are frustrated with him, but he is not hated. There is a difference. Strickland is still likable, even if many disapprove of his recent work.

I also never implied that he was the favorite in this race. Anything but. He still has an uphill climb ahead of him, but it's nothing like Patterson or Corzine, where people really despised those candidates.

I apologize if I didn't communicate my intentions well. This is, and will be, a close race no matter what.

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