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OH: 2010 Sen, Gov (Kos 4/5-7)

Topics: poll

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
4/5-7/10; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error
400 likely Democratic primary voters, 5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kos release)

Ohio

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
35% Fisher, 26% Brunner (chart)

2010 Senate
43% Fisher (D), 39% Portman (R) (chart)
41% Brunner (D), 40% Portman (R) (chart)

2010 Governor
45% Strickland (D), 40% Kasich (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Lee Fisher: 41 / 24
Jennifer Brunner: 38 / 26
Rob Portman: 39 / 30
Ted Strickland: 47 / 41 (chart)
John Kasich: 42 / 28
George Voinovich: 44 / 37 (chart)
Sherrod Brown: 46 / 31
Barack Obama: 46 / 45 (chart)

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

Daily Kos may not be as far off as many think they are. Democrats only have a 2 point lead in the generic ballot, compared to the Economist that has had them up by 8 a few weeks ago. I would say that if you averaged the two polls together, between this and Rasmussen, Portman would be ahead by 2 over Fisher.

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Farleftandproud:

Cincy may be the most conservative large metro area in the country.

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scottkj:

Seriously, Pollster should not post these ridiculous Daily KOS polls. They only make a fool of themselves by posting these fraud polls.

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progressivewisconsin:

I grew up in Cincinnati, and that's a spot-on analysis. I just submitted my absentee ballot, however, for Jennifer Brunner because she's not a hack like Fisher.

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scottkj:

Oversample of 400 democrats. Come no pollster. This poll is not worth the paper it is written on.

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Emily Swanson:

Hi Scott,

When a pollster oversamples, that means that they would not have enough of a particular subsample to report results from that subsample - in this case, for the Democratic primary question. Therefore, the pollster will supplement its original sample with additional respondents from that subgroup in order to meet a certain threshold for that subgroup. In this case, the 400 Democrats in the oversample were ONLY asked the Democratic primary question. At the bottom of the poll, you can see the demographic breakdown of the rest of the questions - 38% Democrats, 35% Republicans, and 27% independents.

You may, of course, make your own judgments about the quality of any poll based on available information and previous results. it is our policy to post all publicly available polls so that you can judge for yourself and filter the polls you don't like out of our charts.

Emily

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scottkj:

Thanks for the clarification Emily. Why was the Zogby poll not posted. Thanks, Scott

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Emily Swanson:

Which Zogby poll? We posted one earlier this week: /blogs/us_national_survey_zogby_413.html

I should clarify that I don't always post polls that don't have questions we track here or will be tracking in the near future, but if I missed one feel free to let me know.

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scottkj:

yeah that one. A big nevermind, my bad and thank you!

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Emily Swanson:

Happy to help. If you ever do see something you think we should be reporting but haven't, feel free to email questions@pollster.com

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Farleftandproud:

Progressive in Wisconsin: Is Tommy Thompson going to enter the race? Is Feingold withstanding the right wing healthcare counterattack in Wisconsin?

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jamesia:

I'm from Cincy too, and it is strongly conservative. But as a counterbalance, the liberals there are far more leftist than where I am now in Austin - a Democratic stronghold. Weird how one extreme creates its opposite like that.

As for the poll, Ohio has been trending more Democratic overall though. I think it's the increasing religious extremism coming from the modern (last decade) GOP. Being Midwestern, Ohioans are more moderate. Of course, Strickland's last challenger was a staunch fiscal conservative as well as religious extremist and was handily defeated.

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LordMike:

Anyone who claims that R2000 oversampled does not know Ohio. Ohio has a significant Democratic registration edge. Obama won the state by only 4 points due to latent racsim in the appalachian part of the state, but all the downticket democrats absolutely crushed the GOP, and I mean crushed... The GOP ruled here for 20 years, and that aftertase has not worn off.

Jamesia is right in that this state is way more moderate than the modern GOP.

BTW, Rasmussen has pretty similar results, in their last Ohio poll. Quinnipiac, too.

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Field Marshal:

Its always racism with you crazy libs. Couldn't be that Obama is a far-left pol that they didn't like, right?

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

LordMike:
Ohio has a significant Democratic registration edge.

So does Massachusetts and all of the Deep South. What's your point?

Jamesia is right in that this state is way more moderate than the modern GOP.

Well we know latent racists are pretty moderate.

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progressivewisconsin:

Farleftandproud: So far it looks like Tommy Thompson's staying in his lucrative private sector gig and time is quickly running out on fundraising and stuff, all though the filing deadline isn't until 7/13 so he has plenty of time for that. As for healthcare, I haven't heard a peep about it since it passed, it's pretty much a non-issue here outside of non-whacko tea party fringe circles.

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