OH: 2010 Senate, Governor (Dispatch 8/25-9/3)
Emily Swanson | September 7, 2010
Topics: Ohio , poll
Columbia Dispatch
8/25-9/3/10; 1,622 registered voters, 2.2% margin of error
Mode: Mail
(Dispatch story)
Ohio
2010 Senate
50% Portman (R), 37% Fisher (D) (chart)
2010 Governor
49% Kasich (R), 37% Strickland (D) (chart)
By Emily Swanson | September 7, 2010 9:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBacks (0)
Comments
This mail-in poll has one of the worst track records in the country. Nonetheless, there are enough other polls for me to move the senate race to lean Republican, if not Republican favored.
Posted on September 7, 2010 10:15 AM
I would think a mail-in poll of registered voters would translate into a rough likely voter model since you have to actually mail back the pseudo-ballot.
Posted on September 7, 2010 10:35 AM
Nate Silver has rated the poll at the bottom
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/pollster-ratings-v311.html
Posted on September 7, 2010 10:56 AM
"I would think a mail-in poll of registered voters would translate into a rough likely voter model since you have to actually mail back the pseudo-ballot."
FM: Yes ... mail-in surveys actually go overboard in this regard; drawing respondents from only those with very strong opinions. I wrote a paper 25 years ago about the bias this might cause in their results (Public Opinion Quarterly 1985 p. 553).
Posted on September 7, 2010 12:40 PM
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