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OH: 47% Kasich (R), 46% Strickland (D) (Ipsos/Reuters 9/23-25)

Topics: Ohio , poll

Ipsos/Reuters
9/23-25/10; 440 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Reuters release)

Ohio

2010 Senate
50% Portman (R), 37% Fisher (D) (chart)

2010 Governor
47% Kasich (R), 46% Strickland (D) (chart)

 

Comments
Bob in SJ:

Definite movement to Strickland. GOTV OH Dems, GOTV. Fisher is toast, and not the warm buttery kind.

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Farleftandproud:

I am not surprised that Strickland has pulled even. Portman comes across better than Kasich. I know he has ties to Fox news, and was a huge part of the bad memories of Contract on America and Dick's Armey. Portman was Bush's budget director, but he wasn't really known for that.

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Field Marshal:

Apparently the DNC has poured a ton of money into the Govs race while the DSCC has largely ignored the senate race, and its showing.

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Kaw-liga:

46% is the highest Strickland has polled since May.

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boomer40:

This bodes well for Democratic House incumbents waiting not so patiently for the DCCC to start spending their $35M kitty. Not sure how many of them will be able to hold on until then though.

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dpearl:

Kasich has taken a couple of purist budgetary stands that probably swung a few percent of the voters to the Strickland camp. In particular - Ohio won $400 in federal "Race to the top" education funding (thanks to the famous New Jersey error) - and Kasich wants to turn that back because he believes we can't maintain the long term commitments associated with it. Kasich also wants to turn back the federal high speed rail funding that Ohio won and wants to scrap all plans for that program (Columbus is the largest city in America without passenger rail service). Finally, Kasich wants to scrap the Governor's plans for school funding but has not put forward an alternative (the Ohio supreme Court has ruled several times that the current funding technique is unconstitutional and Governor Strickland worked out the first compromise proposal in ore than a decade that met constitutional muster - but there really is not enough money in the budget to pay for it given the recession). I think the Governor has majority support on these three issues and that has made a bit of a difference.

TV commercials are a mix of negative (Strickland associating Kasich with his Wall Street Lehmann Brothers connections and Kasich associating Stickland with the state's financial woes) and the usual positive ads (I am a regular joe who will fight for you stuff that you always see from candidates). Not a tremendous amount of ads yet so I don't think they have dominated the swings in the polls.

As mentioned in a previous post, the Columbus Dispatch, is a moderate Republican newspaper that probably holds the key to a few percentage of Central Ohio voters representing about a 1% swing statewide. Their endorsement - not yet announced - may be important in a close race. As expected, they have already endorsed Portman for Senate.

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BH:

No internals, no way to compare poll over poll samples, so no biggie in terms of Strickland....for now.

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BH:

Btw, the article is laughable when it talks about "increased" Dem. intensity. The entire poll is a mere 440 LVs, so unless they only polled a handful of Rs and Is, the sample they used to reflect Dem intensity has to have a gigantic (and therefore worthless for making any sound conclusions) MoE.

This is why Reuters needs to poll a sample of at least 400 for each voter type - which would produce a lower overall MoE for their topline numbers (which is a good thing) and give them some basis to make reasonable conclusions about voter intensity or apathy for any sub-group they would want to measure..like, I don't know say: Dems.

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BH:

Ah, I see the poll is actually 600 RVs overall, which might mean a Dem sample of 200ish instead of 150ish. Which, doesn't change anything and is still way to small for the voting populace in the state of OH.

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Bob in SJ:

@ BH

You're reading too much into a single poll. The poll is part of a larger trend identifed by UC and Fox (Rass) over the past two weeks.

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BH:

"The poll is part of a larger trend identifed by UC and Fox (Rass) over the past two weeks."

What are you really talking about, Bob? If anything, most polling reflects the overall trend as flat to lean R.

Anyway, Strickland is the one waving this poll around as if it's meaningful in terms of enthusiam...when it clearly isn't conclusive.

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tjampel:

BH:

"The poll is part of a larger trend identifed by UC and Fox (Rass) over the past two weeks."

What are you really talking about, Bob? If anything, most polling reflects the overall trend as flat to lean R.

How can your statement possibly be true in light of the two polls released tonight by two totally different entities, both surveying likely voters, both in agreement, and both finding a 1-2 point spread.

Please compare with the polling of LVs from last week or the week before that.

You'll see a trend towards Strickland that's solid; in fact it couldn't be more pronounced because we have Portman/Fisher to judge it by. That race hasn't really shifted. Kasich is losing ground. Strickland is gaining.

Just turn the smoothing up to sensitive on this site or view only the last month as the entire poll universe and use ordinary smoothing.

Agreed that it might just be a microtrend which will dissipate; however your statement is simply wrong for the Gov race in OH.

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tjampel:

A 3rd poll in OH CBS/Times (LVs) yields the same results:

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 42
John Kasich (R): 43
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±3.2%)

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Bob in SJ:

@ tjampel

Don't worry, BH will find some way to refudiate it.

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BH:

"How can your statement possibly be true in light of the two polls released tonight by two totally different entities, both surveying likely voters, both in agreement, and both finding a 1-2 point spread."

Because I'm also comparing the internals between said polls..when they're available. Something that seems to be remiss here with all the pom-pom and all.

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