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OH: Kasich 48% Strickland 39% (Rasmussen 12/7)


Rasmussen
12/7/09; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Ohio

2010 Governor
Kasich 48%, Strickland 39% (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
John Kasich (R): 45 / 24
Ted Strickland (D): 46 / 46 (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 46 / 53 (chart)
Gov. Strickland: 48 / 50 (chart)

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

Typical Ohio Voters. You complained 3 years ago because the GOP wasn't creating jobs and now you think the other side will have the answers.

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Field Marshal:

How many electoral votes will Ohio lose this year. I heard some say Michigan and NY will each lose at least 2. Anyone see trustworthy analysis on that?

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Roman:

I think people are just in an anti-incumbent mood. They don't care what the party is.

It's funny how big of an effect timing has. The credit crisis was actually predicted to happen by some economists as early as 2006. Let's imagine what would happen if it did happen in September 2006 instead of September 2008.

How much better would that be for Democrats? We would have picked up big majorities in both chambers of Congress, but Bush would still be in office to take all the blame for the recession. By 2008, the recovery would be underway, but people would still blame Bush for everything that's gone wrong.

So, Obama would get elected and not inherit a recession but inherit the beginning of a recovery. And he would get all the credit for it.


Instead what will happen is Democrat's are going to lose their majority in the House in 2010. The economy is really going to start improving in 2011. The Republicans will take credit for it. And I think there is a pretty good chance Republicans can take back the White House depending if they nominate a credible challenger in 2012 (a BIG if).

This is all coming form a liberal by the way, who is pretty bearish on liberal political futures right now.

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Xenobion:

I doubt Democrats lose the House or Senate. They'll lose seats because historically the party that wins a turnover loses after the first big win 2 years later.

FM Ohio loses none. NY loses 1 as well as Michigan.

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Field Marshal:

X,

Where did you get that info? This guy says

* +3: Texas
* +2: Florida
* +1: Arizona, California, Georgia, Nevada, Utah
* -1: Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, Pennsylvania
* -2: New York, Ohio

http://www.270towin.com/blog/electoral-college/electoral-votes-in-2012


Then in the Wiki article on the subject it has this:

Likely gainers

* Texas - 4 more votes
* Arizona - 2 more votes
* Florida - 1 more vote
* Georgia - 1 more vote
* Nevada - 1 more vote
* North Carolina - 1 more vote
* Oregon - 1 more vote
* South Carolina - 1 more vote
* Utah - 1 more vote


Likely losers

* Ohio - 2 fewer votes
* California - 1 fewer vote
* Illinois - 1 fewer vote
* Iowa - 1 fewer vote
* Louisiana - 1 fewer vote
* Massachusetts - 1 fewer vote
* Michigan - 1 fewer vote
* Minnesota - 1 fewer vote
* Missouri - 1 fewer vote
* New Jersey - 1 fewer vote
* New York - 1 fewer vote
* Pennsylvania - 1 fewer vote

http://www.electiondataservices.com/images/File/NR_Appor08wTables.pdf


All the articles i have seen has OH losing at least 1, most have it losing 2. MI, NY, NJ, PA, and MA as well losing 1. AZ, UT, NC, FL gaining 1 and TX gaining 3. Some have GA, NV and SC gaining one with Min, MO and IL losing one as well.


Here is another:

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2008/12/projected-2012-electoral-college-map.html

I wonder why there isn't more consensus around this?

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LordMike:

Do 48% of Ohians even know who Kasich is? That seems unlikely. He was last in congress 10 years ago, and while he was Bill O'Reilly's vacation substitute for many years (making wonderful campaign video against him), he hasn't been on TV in a very long time.

He hasn't been actually campaigning, and I think Quinnipiac last had his name recognition at under 25%.

Kasich is basically a hard right teabagger... not the kind of Republican that usually wins statewide in Ohio. Ohioans prefer supposed moderates like Voinovich...

Once people in the buckeye state find out about his plan to bankrupt the state with his tax cuts for millionaires and his plan to gut school funding, his favorables may not end up being so high...

Of course, this is also Rasmussen, and they don't poll anyone who isn't old enough to vote for Nixon (likely voter screen you know).

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LordMike:

FM, Ohio is expected to lose as many as 3, Michigan 2 and New York 2. But, with the housing crisis locking people in their homes, there may not be as much movement out of the states. Michigan may lose only 1, for example. Ohio will still most likely lose 2.

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Field Marshal:

LM,

But wouldn't they already know how many people have left those states. I mean a few thousand being locked into their homes during the last year of the decade should have little effect on the overall 10 year movement, right?

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Common Sense?:

Kasich has really been moving out there to meet the people. Hes been presenting solutions to the public and is really becoming known. People know that John Kasich is running against Strickland and that terrifies Strickland and his staff. In the end this will be a tight election but if economy and jobs dont get better in Ohio come next Nov. you can say Adios to Gov. Strickland.

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Common Sense?:

Farleftandproud:
"Typical Ohio Voters. You complained 3 years ago because the GOP wasn't creating jobs and now you think the other side will have the answers."
Thats not true at all. It was ALL about the curruption in the Taft admin. It had nothing to do with jobs at the time. Thus Blackwell never had a chance.

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