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OH: McCain 46, Obama 42 (Suffolk-9/10-13)

Topics: PHome

Suffolk University
9/10-13/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Ohio
McCain 46, Obama 42, Barr 1, McKinney 1, Nader 1

 

Comments
djneedle83:

Repeat after me Colorado, New Meixco, and Nevada.

Repeat after me Colorado, New Meixco, and Nevada.

Repeat after me Colorado, New Meixco, and Nevada.

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thoughtful:

There are so many undecided in Ohio. I think this is the Poll that found the only thing that McCain had going for himself was trust.
Hopefully we will have a chance to look at the internals I could not find them online.

Now that the election narrative is about his lies, misrepresentation and lack of straight talk, these poll numbers will mark the McCain/Palin high mark.Trust = Credibility McCain is losing his.

Nobody believes that McCain and his coterie of former lobbyists are going to clean up Eashington let alone Wall St.

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RaleighNC:

Cynthia McKinney getting 1% of any poll is downright scary.

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Snowspinner:

Ohio polling slightly behind national numbers for Obama is nothing new. 4 points is a bit steep, but let's face it, Ohio is not Obama's best victory prospect.

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boskop:

Hey!

i'm all for ohio pulling out from obama's camp, but honestly..

polling 600 likely voters in a key swing state is about as reliable as my planning not to get a big mac and caving when push comes to shove!

poll over a thousand for god's sake and then i'll start annoying //thoughtful et al.

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Barack Obama's tax plan gives a tax break to any tax payer who makes below 250,000 per year. Barack Obama will give tax incentives to small business owners and big corporations to keep jobs here in our own country.

Barack Obama's tax plan is a big change from the tax plan of McCain and Bush. McCain and Bush give tax breaks only to the richest of Americans who make over 250,000 per year.

Under McCain's tax plan the middle class and the working poor who make below 250,000 per year bear the largest tax burden.

McCain and Palin are the exact same as Bush and Cheney in their economic policies and their policies on the war in Iraq.

Barack Obama and Joe Biden will work hard to help the middle class and the working poor. I don't want 4 more years of Bush and Cheney.

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!

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boomshak:

Columbus Dispatch confirms these numbers. Looks like OH relatively solid for McCain here but it's a long long long way to go.

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clesky:

Same old story. If McCain is in the lead, the polls are not to be trusted. If Obama is in the lead, the polls are a true reflection of American views.....yawn. I think my monitor is going out...the map keeps getting redder and redder.

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boskop:

@dan1967

your birth date perhaps??

FYI: this post is not really acceptable here. no offense..but it wreaks of obama's website cut and pasted.

sloganizing on pollster is not gonna get you too m uch traction.

but your human opinion will.

what for instance do you not agree with that obama has said?

there must be something.

what state do you think is a bell weather indicator of his inevitable success in november?

think for yourself, dan or plaster this dogma somewhere else.

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boskop:

@clesky

i agree,. i just want to be a bit more certain about ohio before i start painting in more red.

prudence never hurt anyone.

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sunnymi:

@boomshak
Columbus Dispatch has printed the Suffolk polling numbers, not a different poll :-)

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boomshak:

McCain is maintaining about a 5 point bulge on InTrade over Obama. Those who are actually putting their money on the line like McCain's chances.

Right now, if McCain takes, NV NM, OH and VA, het gets 270.

I wonder how well McCain would be doing if he and Palin were getting a 24/7 BJ from the MSM like Obama is?

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boomshak:

sunnymi,

Ah ok, sorry, my bad :)

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boskop:

@boomshak

you underestimate the american mentality.
biased journalism doesn't seem to be helping the rock star.

actually, i change my mind. it does. without it he would probably be big in iowa and hawaii and that's it.

anyway - i have to go call dennis kucinich about something. if it pans out, all i can say is OUCH to obamites.

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boomshak:

Hmmm,

In last few minutes, McCain has surged back to a 6.5 lead on Intrade from being up just 2. Is there any news?

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Stuart:

LV and within the MOE, so reality is probably better for Barack, especially given same day registration.

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boomshak:

Man, it seems like something is going on over at Intrade but I've yet to see any news sparking the McCain surge.

Who knows, could be nothing.

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ItsTheEconomyStupid:

@boomshak

"Looks like OH relatively solid for McCain..."

I'm not sure how a lead within the MOE makes Ohio "solid" for McCain, even "relatively" so.

But fear not: McCain announced this morning that the "fundamentals of our economy are strong," so he will soon begin surging ahead toward his inevitable victory. This must explain the InTrade blip.

I predict that the McCain-Palin ticket will pick up at least two or three points every time a bank fails and every time the DJIA drops by at least 200.

Thanks to McCain's recently burnished record for straight talk, Americans will soon realize that everything is hunky dory and that four more years of Bush-McCain economic stewardship is exactly what the country needs.

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Misrule13:

@Boomshak

Yeah, maybe right with the others, but I really can't see McCain winning NM. Can you? Honestly?

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boomshak:

Wow, McCain almost +8 on Intrade now! What the heck? That never happens unless something big is happening?

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KipTin:

This poll found voters thought McCain was most likely to cut taxes. McCain always bests Obama on the tax issues. The age-old mantra "Democrats will raise your taxes" still holds in voters' minds. That is why I am confused on why Obama spends so much time on taxes rather than on invigorating the economy and balancing the federal budget.
-------------

Rasmussen will have polls out later today:
At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new state polling will be released for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

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boomshak:

Misrule,

Its' razor close. We'll see, two months is a lifetime in politics when one major gaffe or revelation can sink ur boat.

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marctx:

Chuck Todd's analysis was very interesting this weekend. He said that undecideds were 70% McCain supporters. He also said to watch for any poll that has Obama below 48%. Those would be states Obama would have a tough time winning.

He drew this conclusion because he said the voters were asked if country was on wrong track and do you want change. Most say yes, but when asked who they would vote for...they say undecided. They want change but just not Obama's change.

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boomshak:

You know, I'm listening to Sarah palin right now and I just figured out why people like her so much.

She just sounds like regular folk. she is the "anti-politician". She seesm so sweet and sincere that the whole, "she is the lying spawn of Satan" just doesn't ring true.

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vmval1:

@ boomshak

maybe he's surging because of the polls that are going to be officially released later today from Rasmussen...

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Stuart:

Intrade state level still has Obama at 273 EV (CO+NM).

It's interesting that McCain is at +6% at the top level

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Stillow:

@thoughtful

Only lefties like yourself see McCain as a liar and lacks credibility. McCain will cary Ohio....and if I were you, I'd be worrying about carrying PA, WI and MI....Palin has strong appeal in those 3 states and based on 2004 #'s, it won't take much to flip those states to red in 2008. Just look at the map, its getting much more red....and bblue states are turning light blue and yellow....If McCain can just steal one of those 3, Obama probably won't win....Ohio and VA both seem like McCain has a few points lead....

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KipTin:

Same day registration in Ohio is heading for the courts as of last Friday.

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change:

think about guys, these ohians are eventually gonna vote obama you know why? because John mcsame has an R next to his name, and the last guy with an R next to his destroyed their economy! their bluffing trust me, democrats far outweigh republicans and they are coming home!

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boomshak:

Hey guys,

Who knows. InTrade runs as much on rumor as anything else. It was friggin hilarious watching it the day Sarah Palin was announced.

The funny thing about all this is that ANYTHING and I mean ANYTHING can happen in 2 months to change everything.

Still, I do not believe a Center/Right America will give unchecked power to liberals in all branches of government which is what an Obama win would mean.

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KipTin:

I watched Palin's speech today. She is really good and only Obamanation cannot see how she connects with people with her personality and her words. She appears truly authentic... and "in touch" with voters.

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faithhopelove:

While a 4-point McCain lead (within the margin of error) in OH does not seem unreasonable, this poll has only 600 likely voters in its sample--small for a state as big as OH.

This poll was in the field from 9/10-9/13. 9/11 was an unusually strong polling day for McCain (Rasmussen's tracker had him winning that day by 6 points). Hillary did not campaign for Obama in OH until yesterday (9/14).

Both campaigns must have internal numbers indicating a close race in OH. Palin visits there tomorrow. Biden spends two days there later this week.

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boomshak:

Finally! A TERRIFIC, ISSUES BASED ad from the McCain Camp:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pd-pMhboEX4

Thank God! This is the kind of positive message that will win this election.

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change:

@boomshak

are you still using the same old lame republican mantra's= small government, low taxes, self responsibility. fine one question: the last republican to use that ran our economy into the ****ter, tortured prisoners, and invaded a country based on a lie. so tell me in 4 years are they gonna use the same mantra's again?

obama= tax cuts for the middle class, diplomacy first, no lobbyist in his campaign as opposed to over 100 in mcsame (mclobbyist.com) will unite our country,= the choice is simple this year

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boomshak:

Kiptin,

That's the Obama Camp's problem. They paint her as the Devil and then you see her speak and it just doesn't ring true.

It's like they are calling ur mom a liar.

I hope they keep it up.

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djneedle83:

Chucky T's analysis about the magical 48% (70% undecided)is solid because it accounts for a couple key finidngs.

Ironically, when he was on Meet The Press this weekend they followed up his 48% quote about Obama with Dick Armey's quote about how a small minority of older white voters (bubba voters) won't vote for a black man.

Key findings

1. Margin of error in relation to the Bradley Effect in combination with undecided voters.

2. Obama's primary performance with undecided voters.

3. Undecided voters tend to be older and favor McCain's demographic support base.

3% to 4% margin of error correlated to bradley impact (How big is it really) in relation to 3%-6% undecided voters.

weekend of election (Ohio)

Example:

47% Obama
48% Mccain
2% Other
3% undecided
3.5% margina of error

If the Bradley effect is 1 percent (realistic) then Obama really has 46%. Then if the Margin of error accounts for Obama having 0.5% less then he really has 45.5%. Then if 30% of 3% undecided voters support him than he really has only about 46.5% of the vote in Ohio.

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faithhopelove:

Suffolk's OH primary poll over-estimated the final margin between Hillary and Obama by about 3-4%. See:

/polls/oh/08-oh-dem-pres-primary.html

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thoughtful:

@Boskop

More and More folks now know that McCain and Palin are serial Liars.

That said the narrative has changed to the economy "which is fundamentally sound" after 71/2 years of Bush/Cheney at least according to john McCain.

It is a lot more serious that that at a time of war, unfortunately our government and John McCain is so dumb and arrogant that they never has realized/recognized that Al Qaeda's target is economic as well as political.

Bin Laden's tact is from the Russian-Afghan War which not only resulted in Russia leaving Afghanistan defeated but consequentially the collapse of the Soviet Union as much because of war induced economic collapse as the political realities of the cold war.

How much have we wasted in Iraq?

By any measurement the United States economy is teetering on the brink of collapse.

The richest nation on the planet is no longer the richest nation on the planet.

The entire supply side of the US economy is shot. Manufacturing industry shot and no longer competitive. US Energy policy backwards compared to far more expensive cost of living countries like Germany, France, the Scandanavian countries who have no OIL whatsoever save for Norway.

You guys can continue to take in the NeoCon Bush/Cheney/McCain/Palin lies.

The US has lost 3 out of its top 5 Investment Banks in the last 6 months.

The 2 companies responsible for financing 60%of US Mortgages are bankrupt and currently being financed by the US Federal Bank.

How many smaller banks have gone bust and going bust. The Average American gets in real terms something like $ 2,400 less disposal income than 7 years ago.


John McCain says the economy is fundamentally sound - by his own admittance he doesn't know much about economies. He's living in another world.

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clesky:

If more and more folks know this, why are the states turning red? Your fantasy does not = our reality.

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Stillow:

More and more don't know it...thoughtful sometimes gets his views confused with everyone elses views. In the end...as we always do, the country will not elect a tax and spend liberal.....I like thoughtful's views, but he tends to get a little crazy sometimes.

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Tybo:

Dan1967....nice talk.. it's way too bad that obama has nothing, NOTHING to back it up with.

Even barack knows he needs to get in office before he has a longer record of doing nothing!

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thoughtful:

@Clesky

For the very same reason we elected Not ONCE BUT TWICE a puppet on Cheney's strings as President.

By any standards grade GWB's performance 2001-2004 and 2005 to now?

Who has benefitted financially from his Presidency?

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Stillow:

@thoughtful

Bush is not on the ballot. Your side should love Bush's fiscal policy, he is a big g'ment big spender type of guy........

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Stuart:

The basic issue in the USA is that the middle class is being destroyed.

The rich cannot get richer without a strong middle class. There is no point to invest if there is no middle class to buy the products.

Many of the rich (Warren Buffett, for example) understand this, and support democratic approaches.

The destruction of the middle class in the 20's set the stage for the great depression, and it took a war and major government programs (such as social security) to rebuild it.

To learn about Barack's plans for rebuilding the middle class please go to his web site.

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thoughtful:

@Stillow

Obama will not be a tax and spend liberal for the same reasons Clinton couldn't be.

Our economy is in such bad shape it is going to take a RADICAL agenda to get us back on the straight and narrow.

The main priorities is to build on what is good and get rid of what is bad.

We need to get very surgical in our war against Al Qaeda.

We need to have a comprehensive energy plan and Internationalize it with our Allies throughout the world in Japan (no Oil resources) etc.

Anyway game is up look at latest Virginia poll. Rasmussen's at 6 are going to be interesting!

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zotz:

djneedle83-
You are saying forget about Ohio even when Obama is within the MOE? How does that make sense? I read in one poll up tp 20% said that they might change their minds. If Obama runs a smart campaign Ohio is winnable.

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clesky:

@ Stuart,
Warren Buffet only paid 17% tax last year. Yet another liberal telling me what I should do, but finding ways to make sure the rules do not apply to them. Have you forgotten that Bill Clinton counted used underwear as a tax right-off? I thought liberals believed it was a honor and civic duty to pay taxes....oh, they meant that only for the "little people" that do not have enough money to pay someone to find the loopholes. Increasing taxes on the rich to give to the poor only encourages the poor to stay poor and the rich to save their money....either way it doesn't help the economy. Ask Obama how he is going to lower tax on 90% of Americans, when less than 70 % actually paid any tax. Obama's system will do nothing more than punish success and award failure.

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