Pollster.com

Oct 4-8. A little stale perhaps?

The crosstabs for this poll look about right as far as its sample's demographic breakdown goes, with one glaring exception--there are more Republicans in the sample than Democrats. The 2004 exit poll of OH showed the party ID breakdown of actual voters to be about even, and the 2006 midterm election exit poll of OH showed the party ID of actual voters to favor Democrats, 40% to 37%.

Also, this poll was in the field mostly before Obama's winning debate performance, and entirely before his 6 campaign stops in OH over the last 2 days. Obama is planning to return to OH tomorrow through Tuesday for his debate prep; Biden is scheduled to visit the state later next week.

I don't think this is the most accurate poll of the state, but hopefully it will help keep the Democrats hungry and not let them get complacent.

That's 2% less advantage for McCain than their previous poll, four weeks ago on September 10th, which had M 48 O 44.

And to be honest I think there might be a certain problem with Ohio polls in general.

Insider Advantage who have been polling roughly at the same time twice and had M+1 [that's O+3 compared to UCinn] on September 10th and O+5 this time [O+7 compared to UCinn].

Honestly, I'm surprised pollster.com has colored OH light blue; it seems a bit premature.

Ohio is probably the tightest traditional swing state right now. Florida seems to be clearly leaning Obama at the moment. The debate and Obama's tour aren't in these numbers plus other polls have shown Obama leading so I wouldn't make big assumptions based on this poll. Still I think that Ohio is going to be closer than Virginia or Florida.
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http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

This is a generally very reliable pollster. This will be battle right to the finish line. But it should be noted that even with this poll Nate Silver projects Obama having a 72% chance of carrying Ohio.

I think this poll sounds about right if you take into account the margin of error, and that this is an old poll - when you consider the Troopergate report, the debate, and the shocking shares fall on Friday have all taken place (and Obama has been campaigning fiercely here) this does seem a bit dated.

I think OH will remain tight but if Obama's posting +10 in PA then I think OH will be in the bag.

Yet another sign that this is no time to be overconfident or complacent. I know, there are a few ways to discount this poll, but let's rather be safe than sorry.

As of now, I am willing to accept that Obama has firm, dependable leads in all Kerry states plus IA, which produce 259 EVs. Where are the other 11 going to come from? OH? Polls show a race too tight to count on. VA or NC? Traditionally strong red states where the Republicans have good ground games. FL? Polls are ok but still too close for comfort. NM/NV+CO? NM seems decent, and both NV and CO are tenuous. In short, I don't believe Obama has enough *secure* EVs now, and that the race is still highly fluid and easily influenced by outside events. If the issue of race or Putin rears its/his head, the current leads in the poll can easily evaporate or even reverse.

So, please be cautious and vigilant. Call me pessimist if you want, but I'd rather be pleasantly surprised than abruptly shocked.