Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

OH-Gov: 43% Kasich (R), 42% Strickland (D) (CBS/Times 9/23-27)

Topics: Ohio , poll

CBS News / New York Times
9/23-27/10; 941 likely voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CBS: story, results; NYTimes: story, results)

Ohio

2010 Senate
45% Portman (R), 34% Fisher (D) (chart)

2010 Governor
43% Kasich (R), 42% Strickland (D) (chart)

 

Comments
iVote:

Definite tightening in the Governor's race here.

____________________

Bob in SJ:

Teddy Ballgame's still in it!

I wonder of four polls in a row will be enough to convince BH that this race has tightened? Probably not.

____________________

BH:

LOL. Sorry to toss a wet blanket on the party here, but we're not going to see 2008 voter turnout levels in OH, which is what the partisan breaks in this poll reflect. When you pull back the breaks to reflect something more reasonable..say 2004 turnout..Strickland is still below 40 and trailing by 5.

Leave it to CBS and the NYT to bake their poll results (Newsweek where are you?) to create a horse race that isn't..at least not yet.

____________________

tjampel:

@BH
Four polls is only 2800 people or so distributed across 4 LV screens. Tiny sample, really...nothing to see here I guess.

To channel the most virulent wingnut on this site it will take a sample of "eleventy thousand" over a gazillion and one polls to make you retreat from your laughable position that the recent polls show movement towards Kasich.

____________________

BH:

tjampel..

Why don't you get your calculator out and tell us what the partisan breaks look like for each poll you're referring to, who the incumbent is and what his average polling number is, what that means from a historical perspective, and then by all means, tell me what on earth you're even referring to?

As for me, I'll chuckle until I see several more polls over the next week or so to see if this is just more media gimmickry or true movement towards Strickland.

____________________

Wright Wing:

I agree with BH. And as a resident of Ohio, I can say from personal experience that voter turnout will not be even close to what it was in 2008. The Ohio Republican Party is one of the most active in the nation this election cycle, and our GOTV will be far batter than last time.

And while I'll admit that Strickland is getting closer, probably because of all his negative campaign ads, I still want to point out that Fisher is getting blown out of the water in every single poll.

____________________

tjampel:

BH: You're the one who made the comment that the race is moving towards the Republican, not me. Are you chuckling at your own brilliance?

Why should one have to look at the individual crosstabs for 4 consecutive races and parse each one and find one way or another to discount them; cumulatively 4 races to average and thousands of respondents gives you a powerful snapshot of where the race is ...now.

Next week, who knows. That's why I said it may be a microtrend, only. But I don't countenance intellectual dishonesty from those who know better. You're far too smart to make such an idiotic statement as (paraphrasing) "if anything, this shows that the race is moving Republican"; yeah right."

You seem to be doubling down on that remark. You should simply admit that it's incorrect given 4 polls dovetailing with one another.

Wright Wing: What do you agree with BH about? That this race is trending towards the Republican based on the last four polls? That's what he said and you just contradicted him. I wasn't talking about Fisher. He's dead meat.

____________________

BH:

"You're the one who made the comment that the race is moving towards the Republican, not me."

No, I didn't merely say this race was moving towards to the Republican, I said if anything the race was "flat to lean R," and then unlike you, I backed it up. I also chose those words carefully to head off the usual troll attacks.

Btw, Rass has Kasich +8 today, which poll over poll is Kasich +1...or since you guys like to tie Rass and Fox News/POR-Rass together...would mean a shift of +6 Kasich's direction poll over poll.

____________________

BH:

"Wright Wing: What do you agree with BH about? That this race is trending towards the Republican based on the last four polls? That's what he said and you just contradicted him. I wasn't talking about Fisher. He's dead meat."

Wright Wing, don't listen to tjampel. He's proving to be an unhappy troll and a dishonest one at that. I said:

"If anything, most polling reflects the overall trend as flat to lean R."

So tjampel is being dishonest when he's "paraphrasing" what I said. Also when I said that polling reflected a race that was "flat to lean R" I didn't base this assessment on the last FOUR polls alone. This too was a product of tjampel's dishonest caricature based on something he invented...at best it's what we call a strawman, at worst, well...

____________________

Bob in SJ:

@ BH

Rass shows no significant change from two weeks ago; He must not be a good enough pollster to pick up the current movement of the race - He's the outlier right now.

____________________

BH:

"He's the outlier right now."

Right. He's the outlier because it doesn't fit YOUR narrative - even though you haven't given a valid reason WHY you don't like it. I've shown why he probably isn't an outlier, as +1R poll over poll is pretty "flat to learn R" to me, but without internals I completely understand your skepticism. Yet he's not an outlier unless you look merely at the last two or three polls - without giving at least some weight to the previous week...which I'd say is very prudent.

____________________

MikeyA:

This race is still over.

Ohio is a swing state and whatever the national tide is then look to see Ohio move that way. The national tide heavily favors the GOP.

I've said it before for any Dem incumbant to win they will need a 5 pt lead in order to surpass the enthusiasm gap.

Add in that Strickland is an incumbant who really doesn't poll over the 45% mark then he is dead in the water.

If he starts polling at 49-47% with a 5 point lead I'd believe maybe he'd win, albiet close.

____________________

Farleftandproud:

This year I knew was going to be such a horrible Democratic year, that I called the WV state officials offices to ask the governor to re-consider and wait til 2012 to run. I asked them if they really wanted the GOP to steal another one like they did in Mass, from someone's death; of course they didn't listen to me, and many others.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR