Pollster.com

Democrats have a registration advantage of about 7% in OK. The favorability of each candidate is 66-67%. A 20% polling advantage for the Republican candidate in this race is pretty outlandish.

McCain won the state by 31 points in 2008. Its one of the most conservative. Registration is meaningless. I would say, if anything, this understates Fallin's support.

Askins is a conservative Democrat who currently holds elected statewide office.

Brad Henry was re-elected with 66% of the vote in 2006, so I'm not sure if the state's conservative bent has quite the effect that you (and Rasmussen) think it does...

Yes, but i also think that the true conservatives, who are probably 2/3rds of all Oklahomans, have felt burned by the so-called conservative Dems over the past 2 years, especially with the HCR bill. Hence, elections with conservative Dems have probably undergone a structural change from prior period.

Fool me once, sham on you, fool me twice, shame on me.

Do you also think that conservative Dems in UT and ID are screwed for similar reasons, then?

Possibly. However, if they can show a record of voting against Pelosi and Obama when it matters, then i think they will be fine. I do believe ID1 will probably switch. UT2, Matheson is probably more conservative than a lot of Reps. He voted against HCR. What i thought was funny was that he was primaried by a woman who thought he wasn't liberal enough, in a district that went to McCain by almost 20 points.

"Field Marshal:

Yes, but i also think that the true conservatives, who are probably 2/3rds of all Oklahomans, have felt burned by the so-called conservative Dems over the past 2 years, especially with the HCR bill. Hence, elections with conservative Dems have probably undergone a structural change from prior period."

2/3 might be too low actually. Wasn't Oklahoma Obama's worst state?

Anyway, it seems a little silly to apply the health care debate to a governor's race.

Fallin will win this election, make no mistake. And yes, Oklahoma is extremely conservative. Obama failed to win a single county and lost by about 30% or so. It is the most conservative state in the U.S. The number of registered Republicans or Democrats is no measure of how conservative or liberal a state is.

As somebody from Tulsa, Oklahoma I think I know a little about Oklahoma politics. Jari Askins has portrayed herself as the post-partisan candidate. Even as a Democrat she would govern like a Brad Henry democrat which is very compromising yet stern on some social issues. The belief that she will automatically lose because this is Oklahoma is sheer idiocy. By that logic we shouldnt have a Governor Bredesen in Tennesee or a Governor Sebelius in Kansas or a Senator Boren like Oklahoma had for decades. Oklahomans are conservative but Jari Askins does not come off as a liberal to anybody. In fact she defeated a conservative in 2006. While her odds are against her keep this in mind. She was behind against Drew Edmonson by 16 points. Her grassroots campaign is insanely effective.