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Omero: Update on Sotomayor polling; the gender gap pervades

Topics: Barack Obama , Gallup , gender , Quinnipiac , Supreme Court

Yesterday I posted on some Gallup data on voter reactions to Sotomayor.  Quinnipiac released new data today, and both Gallup and Quinnipiac were nice enough to share party by gender crosstabs.  These data continue to show that women, particularly Republican women, respond strongly to Sotomayor's nomination.

Quinnipiac shows Sotomayor with stronger ratings than Roberts, and a dramatic gender gap

The Gallup poll showed a higher gender gap in support for Sotomayor than for past nominees, although she was overall about as well-received as Roberts.  But according to today's Quinnipiac poll, many more voters approve of Sotomayor (+30 "approve" minus "disapprove") than approved of either Roberts (+17) or Alito (+14) at the time of their nominations.  And women are responsible for the difference.  Sotomayor receives similar ratings from men (+17) as the previous successful nominees (+21 Roberts, +16 Alito).  But women approve of her nomination in much larger numbers (+41) when compared to Roberts (+15) or Alito (+11). 

Both polls show a very large gender gap among Republicans

In the Gallup poll, both Democratic and Republican women are more supportive of Sotomayor than their Democratic counterparts.  The difference is more modest among Democrats (men: +46 "excellent/good pick" minus "only fair/poor" pick; women: +54).  Among Republicans the difference is sizable (men: -44; women: -11). 

The Quinnipiac poll is consistent.  There is no difference in the ratings of Democratic men (+74 "approve" minus "disapprove") and Democratic women (+76).  But Republican women are almost evenly divided on Sotomayor's nomination (-9), while Republican men are more decidedly disapproving (-39).

Republican strategy?

There is much public discussion of Republicans' internal strategy (or lack thereof) when it comes to Sotomayor and race.  On the one hand, Republicans rightly worry about their lack of appeal to Hispanic voters, particularly when dealing with an obviously qualified candidate.  On the other, well, there's Congressman Tancredo (among others).  But add this to the list of growing Republican concerns:  Do Republicans really want to antagonize the first Supreme Court nominee in a while to galvanize women?  Before you answer, note the latest outrageously tone-deaf sexist attack.

UPDATE: Below is a table of the party by gender crosstabs provided by Quinnipiac & Gallup.


Sotomayor2.png

 

Comments
sfcpoll:

The gender gap diappears:
Gallup's new poll http://tinyurl.com/onk83u on whether senators should vote in favor of her finds no gender gap--55% of men favor senators voting for her, 52% of women. They note that Gallup's data last week were based on a one-night poll, possibly casting aspersion on those results.

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