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OR: Obama 48, McCain 34 (Riley-10/10-20)

Topics: PHome

Riley Research
10/10-20/08; 499 LV, 4.4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Oregon
Obama 48, McCain 34
Sen: Merkley (D) 36, Smith (R-i) 35, Brownlow (C) 4

 

Comments
jatchwa:

That is an unacceptable level of undecideds in a Senate race this close to the election.

And how on earth does it take 10 days to call 500 Oregonians? 50 interviews a day? FIFTY?!

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NorseSoccer:

18% undecided for President
25% undecided for Senate

WTF?

GOTV might be the name of the game in Oregon!

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sunnymi:


GOTV in Oregon would mean getting into each voters home and making them fill their ballot in your presence since it is an "all-mail-in-ballot" state!

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MichaelJason:

I think anyone undecided at this point is very inept.

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NYCREALAMERICAN:

Undecides - Like sitting on a plane and the steward/stewardess asks what you would like for dinner the chicken dish or a cold plate of feces with mixed pieces of broken glass, and you reply - how is the chicken cooked?

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blakec:

Surge!!!

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Marcus:

McCain surge , shocking .. tied on Sunday ... guaranteed ! :-)

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MichaelJason:

Gallup, Obama up 8 among Registered, 7 among new likely voters, and five among traditional

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NYCREALAMERICAN:

GALLUP IS UP. SYDNEY LOST A POINT ACROSS THE BOARD. POLLS ARE CONVERGING AT ABOUT 8% NATIONALLY

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Rollin08:

The big question here is Merkley Vs. Smith

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Thatcher:

On all the Gallups ...an increase of 1 for Obama's lead

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C.S.Strowbridge:

Too many undecideds to matter. Next poll please.

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blakec:

No it doesn't say that....
I was promised that it was closing by boomfailed. So, I think it's closing...


(plugs fingers in ears)

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BlueInTexas:

I'm sure someone already has posted this but just in case...

"Campaign worker changes attack story"

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/breaking/s_595049.html

PWNED

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PortlandRocks:

Hey where's BOOM? This morning he said he had a good "Inside Source" who told him Gallop would go to +2 Obama traditional. It went to +5. FAIL! But hey, what's new from the biggest idiot this forum has ever known?

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Thatcher:

@BlueInTexas ... and look at this:

John Moody, executive vice president at Fox News, has commented on his blog that "this incident could become a watershed event in the 11 days before the election. If Ms. Todd's allegations are proven accurate, some voters may revisit their support for Senator Obama, not because they are racists (with due respect to Rep. John Murtha), but because they suddenly feel they do not know enough about the Democratic nominee.

"If the incident turns out to be a hoax, Senator McCain's quest for the presidency is over, forever linked to race-baiting."

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BigTex:

Much more of a civil discussion without the vitriol of the previous posters.

The Obama lead is strong and these latest polls are after the Colin Powell endorsement. This lead is stemming the natural tightening of the race.

Obama will need to be up by 7 points in order to overcome the Bradley effect (-2 points), middle name of "Hussein" on the ballot (-3), voting machine issues (-1), and dirty tricks like too few voting machines in democratic areas (-1).

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blakec:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/24/131858/60/749/640996

Looks like the "victom" of the attack just admitted to police that she made the whole thing up.

Ooops! bye bye McCain. At least you won't have to move to Arizona to enjoy your retirement.

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blakec:

http://kdka.com/


A Pittsburgh police commander says a volunteer for the McCain campaign who reported being robbed and attacked near a bank ATM in Bloomfield has confessed to making up the story. Police say charges will be filed. More details to follow.

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Thatcher:

@blakec -

Oh shiiiiiiiiiiiiii. That's bad.

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laguna_b:

@bigtex

With due respect to your conservatism regarding Obama's chances, I think the 401k effect is stronger than the rascism effect. People are panicing about thier financial futures and would vote Bin Laden or Putin if they thought they could produce a turnaround. Further, few vote FOR McCain and many vote FOR Obama which is to say the enthusiasm effect vs. settling for thier least negative candidate. I think this is good for 2-3 pts and will cancel most of the Bradley effect.

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laguna_b:

A Mccain supporter is beat up and robbed by an Obama supporter (now debunked) and this is a game changer for the hopeless???? Like Ayers and Rev. Wright....this ONLY shows how little straws are that they have for the grasping.

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Thatcher:

@BigTex

There is no Bradley Effect in pre-election polls. The pollsters in the original Bradley race have stated so time and again.

Anyway - the "Bradley Effect" is actually more about exit polling than pre-election polling.

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BlueInTexas:

Well while I agree the "Bradley effect" will not be great. The way I see the it, the key states will be Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina. McCain cannot win without these states.

While I'm optimistic of the early voting in NC, Virginia feels more fluid than the polls suggest. Pennsylvania has already had issues of flyers posted stating that the police will arrest voters who have outstanding warrants (which is illegal).

I also expect heavy Republican voter intimidation and 'ballot shortages' in the urban areas of these states on election day.

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BigTex:

laguna_b:

Valid point. As I stated before, Obama is positive with a positive message like Reagan, Clinton and even GW Bush with his compassionate conservatism (pre-hindsight). McCain's story is inspiring be he is no longer.

Still, there is a lot of concern about what people and the machines will do. Kerry certainly would of had far more votes had it not been for Diebold, ES&S and Sequoia.

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