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OR: Obama 50, McCain 40 (PortlandTrib-9/11-14)

Topics: PHome

Portland Tribune /
Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall Inc.
9/11-14/08; 500 RV, 4.4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Oregon
Obama 50, McCain 40, Nader 2
Sen: Smith (R-i) 37, Merkley (D) 36

 

Comments
thoughtful:

Why is Florida still pink and not yellow?

I am trying to work out why Oregon is not a dark Blue?

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JFactor:

The senate race is pretty tight. Even though this is an RV poll and the MoE is 4.4% this still pretty much seals this state for Obama. If he loses this state, he's going to lose by a landslide and if he loses by a landslide something really significant must happen in the race.
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http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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political_junki:

I'd say paint all of them yellow and wait till Nov 4 :)

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Cephme:

@thoughtful
It is based on the averages on this site. I believe the average distance between the two candidates has to be less than 4.0 to make it yellow. FL currently stands at 4.1

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cabos101:

I have to put a little bit more stock in a state poll like this.

It's clear that Oregon is likely single digits (as always) but there are no signs this is a real toss-up. And, yes, FL should be a 'toss-up' as almost all polls (besides the horribly tabbed SurveyUSA) have it as a tie post 9/15

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PdxPaulie:

Actually, this poll is probably pretty accurate. Hibbits has been a local political analyst for years, so having his name on the poll carries some weight. The Portland Tribune, once considered conservative fishwrap has actually become a decent paper (by local standards). Also, neither candidate has a meaningful presence here, and they don't run ads. Basically, McCain has conceded the state, and Obama is assuming its his. Probably with good reason....
The state has been tilting Democratic in non-Presidential votes. Look at the Oregon House and Senate- recent Democratic majorities after years of Republican majorities. In the State-wide offices, only Senator Smith is Republican. There are considerable pockets of strong Republicans, but the 2 main counties to watch here are Washington and Clackamas - they are the suburban/rural counties that make/break elections. I would wager that both counties are going Obama/Biden considering the voting pattern in 2006. Just my $.03

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Tybo:

political_junki:
I'd say paint all of them yellow and wait till Nov 4 :)

smart person!

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Scott in PacNW:

Remember, OR is all vote-by-mail. The distinction between RV & LV is less than in other states.

Also, OR is a high-turnout state. I think in 2004, turnout was around 85%.

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